Women's anger has, of course, been a catalytic force in American politics since the insult of Trump's election in 2016. It drove the Women's March and the #MeToo movement, and persuaded record numbers of Democratic women to run for office in recent cycles. Female rage was rekindled when, thanks to Trump's Supreme Court picks, we lost Roe v. Wade and women in many conservative states were stripped of control over their reproductive lives. The backlash to Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization, the case that ended Roe, is probably why the red wave that Republicans were expecting in 2022 never materialized. It helped Democrats win important state-level victories last year, including the re-election of Gov. Andy Beshear of Kentucky.

Some conservative men have assumed that women's outrage would fade. "As we settle back into what feels like a status quo," the Republican pollster Patrick Ruffini told NPR last year, it will be "tougher to move people and to message on" abortion. Others on the right decided to lean into the gender gap, hoping to galvanize disaffected young men, including men of color, to make up for their erosion among women. "For every Karen we lose, there's a Julio and a Jamal ready to sign up for the MAGA movement," Representative Matt Gaetz of Florida told the right-wing network Newsmax this year.

Maybe Trump's hyper-patriarchal approach will work. Among Republicans, however, you can already see a dawning suspicion that the male voters they're counting on to replace conscientious suburban women may not be wholly reliable. "The core plot of the Barbie movie was distracting men so they wouldn't vote," Gaetz wrote on X on Monday. "Don't make the Barbie movie come true."

She knows what she's doing because she's been successful in every one of her election campaigns.

[W]hile Ms. Harris has raised more than $1 billion for her presidential bid, which has afforded her a formidable war chest, campaign officials say she has made a point to continue making stops at barber shops, music stores and bookshops.

But in a fast-paced national campaign, Ms. Harris has been better known this time around for her big, high-profile rallies. After most rallies, she goes and walks a rope line, often beelining for young children. After town-hall events, she has gone over to voters who asked her a tough question to talk face to face.

"She has been clear that she needs to look people in the eye, and not just talk about the stakes but talk about aspirations, in their own space," said Michael Tyler, the communications director for Ms. Harris's campaign. "It's part and parcel for how she's campaigned throughout her career."

Has recent polling compensated?

No. And they've overcorrected for Trump voters they fear missing after doing so in 2016 and 2020.

We might see IN turn blue by the end of the night.

I'm here and I'm not feeling that vibe - but I admit, I might be missing it. There's a former female Republican state school superintendent running for governor as a Democrat and the DNSC has been pouring money into her campaign over the last weeks as GOP tv commercials try to knock her for having supported Hillary and Bidenomics. We've got multiple battery plants going up because of IRA in dead red counties and those voters know the reason why. And knocking Hillary again when she was right about the threat of Trump leading to Roe going down? They're not reading the room, are they?

And another woman is running against the idiot AG Todd Rokita who caused all the problems for Dr. Bernard that treated the 10 year old Ohio rape victim. Nobody likes this clown, so I hope he goes too.

But Roevember is real, the numbers don't lie. And a significant number of GOP men will also vote to support the women in their lives without telling their MAGA bros. It's never over till it's over, but it's hard not to feel positive heading to bed tonight.

Yeah, so let's wait until we see the ballot results.

We're already seeing ballot results. The Iowa poll is based on votes already placed as well as intentions. Of those women over 65 who've already voted, Harris is getting 2 - 1, and leads Trump when combined with men. And there's a 28 point gap with independent women and a 20 point gap with women overall.

+65 men are +2 towards Harris and Trump's overall advantage with men fell from 27 to 14.

I did not see it reporting on the early voting results. (please correct me if I misread the article)

You did misread it or you missed this:

The poll of 808 likely Iowa voters, which include those who have already voted as well as those who say they definitely plan to vote, was conducted by Selzer & Co. from Oct. 28-31. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.

Maybe this is the link you intended?

That's the same link I posted in #16 where you stated you couldn't find the information. The blockquoted paragraph in #20 was from that same link, not from the one under the #20 post.

I offered you an additional link that outlined the polling methodology underneath my response. Sorry if I confused you.