"The negotiation playbook Putin will employ is predictable. He'll first engage in what can be called the "reluctant-bride" strategy"extracting significant concessions merely for appearing at the bargaining table.

His demands are no state secret:

installation of a new Ukrainian government, prohibition of European security forces on Ukrainian soil, reduction or elimination of Western military assistance, and immediate recognition of Russian sovereignty over four eastern Ukrainian provinces and the Crimea.

We should harbor no illusions about a potential ceasefire.

Russian forces will inevitably exploit any defensive vulnerabilities along the frontlines while cynically blaming Ukraine for violating the agreement"a tactic Putin has employed repeatedly.

The fundamental reality remains unchanged: Putin will never accept any arrangement preserving Ukraine as a genuinely independent nation with credible security guarantees. What he seeks is capitulation disguised as diplomacy."