President Trump has long reveled in his reputation as a maximalist, issuing a huge demand, creating a crisis and setting off a high-pressure negotiation," the New York Times reports. "But increasingly often, he ends up backing down and simply declaring a win. His opponents appear to be catching on, sharpening their tactics based on Mr. Trump's patterns and his unapologetically transactional attitude toward diplomacy." "The dynamic has played out repeatedly in recent weeks as Mr. Trump backed off, to varying degrees, on his plans to transform Gaza into the Riviera of the Middle East,' turn Canada into the 51st state and beat China into submission with tariffs."
OpEd: When an Arsonist Poses as a Firefighter
paulkrugman.substack.com
... Four points:
1. A 30 percent tariff is still really, really high, especially combined with the 10 percent tariff we're imposing on everyone else. The back of my envelope says that the average U.S. tariff rate will now be around 13 percent, up from around 3 percent when Trump began his trade war. Before all this drama that would have been seen as wildly protectionist.
2. This wasn't a case of both sides backing down. China only imposed its tariffs as a response to Trump's gambit, and has reduced them only because he retreated. And retreat he did. This was basically Trump running away from the killer rabbit.
3. The prohibitive tariff has been paused, not canceled. Nobody knows what will happen in 90 days. I've long argued that the uncertainty created by Trump's arbitrary, ever-changing tariffs is at least as important as the level of those tariffs. Well, the uncertainty level has arguably gone up rather than down.
4. This retreat probably hasn't come soon enough to avoid high prices and empty shelves. Even if shipments from Shanghai to Los Angeles -- which had come to a virtual halt -- were to resume tomorrow, stuff wouldn't arrive in time to avoid exhaustion of current inventories. ...
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