The mullahs of Iran join the bet that Trump always chickens out.
During his first term, Trump claimed to have taken the U.S. to the verge of war with Iran in the summer of 2019, only to cancel the mission (again, by his own account) 10 minutes before mission launch. The story, as Trump told it, can hardly have impressed the rulers of Iran with the U.S. president's commitment and resolve. But the experience of 2019 could suggest to the Iranian regime a strategy for 2025:
Step 1: Absorb the Israeli strikes, as painful and humiliating as they are. Step 2: Mobilize Russian President Vladimir Putin to dissuade Trump from military action. Step 3: Agree to return to negotiations if Trump forces a cease-fire on Israel. Step 4: Dawdle, obfuscate, and generally play for time. Step 5: Reconstitute whatever remains of the Iranian nuclear program.
This strategy would play on all of Trump's pressure points, especially his unwillingness to ever do anything that Putin does not want. It would leave Israel in the lurch, but over the years Trump has left many other allies like that.
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