U.S. consumer prices increased slightly less than expected in September as a surge in the cost of gasoline was partially offset by a sharp moderation in rents, keeping the Federal Reserve on track to cut interest rates again next week. Consumer inflation last month also was restrained by a slowdown in the pace of price increases for airfares, hotel and motel rooms as well as cheaper used cars and trucks, the report from the Labor Department showed on Friday. But tariffs on imports continued to raise prices for apparel, appliances, furniture and bedding, and sporting goods.
@#2 ... Hard to believe since Trump fired the commissioner of labor statistics. ...
I'm not there yet.
These numbers look believable to me. (don't look at the headline, look at the details in the Reuters article)
They were released based upon the work of the good people in BLS who do this work.
The details in #1 seem to be reasonable.
Going forward, however, well, that may be a whole different story. One in which your skepticism may be warranted.
And, I will also take this opportunity to state that the Fed has been concerned recently more about the job market than inflation.
Stated differently, we need the statistics about the job market.
For some odd reason this happened ...
Flying Blind: ADP Stops Giving the Fed Access to Its Private Jobs Data
mishtalk.com
... After a speech by Fed Governor Chris Waller in August, ADP stopped giving the Fed data.
Lost Access
The data in question is not the public data from which I produce monthly charts such as the lead chart.
Rather, the Fed lost access to proprietary subsets.
The Wall Street Journal reports Fed Lost Access to Private Jobs Data Ahead of Government Shutdown
... Federal Reserve officials, who are unable to receive U.S. economic statistics because of the continuing government shutdown, recently lost access to a separate measure of employment data from a third-party provider.
Since at least 2018, payroll-processing company ADP has provided the Fed with access to a data set that includes anonymized information on employment and earnings for millions of workers. The data, which covers 20% of the nation's private workforce, had been available to the Fed with a roughly one-week delay"making it both a timely and comprehensive gauge of job-market conditions.
ADP stopped providing its data to the Fed shortly after a speech by Fed governor Christopher Waller in late August drew attention to the central bank's longstanding use of its weekly payroll data, according to a person familiar with the matter.
The Fed's data-sharing relationship with ADP has been public for years. Minutes of Fed policy meetings as recently as 2023 included generalized descriptions of the central bank's analysis of ADP data similar to Waller's August speech. ...
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