U. Chicago's Professor Mearscheimer cautioned the GW Bush NSC that expanding NATO eastward could be provocative to Putin, but, rightly or wrongly, Pres. Baby Bush ignored that precautionary advice. Putin proceeded to invade Ukraine in Obama's later years in office.
Whatever Putin says about his 2022 invasion, however, his war is minimally excusable as preemptive. Putin himself admits his goal is to make Ukraine disappear as a nation and to restore it as part of Russia. No matter how anyone parses Putin's words, there's no escaping the hypocrisy of his logic.
Nevertheless, shirtless, macho Putin controls Russia's media, and with minimal outside news, 90% of Russians believe Putin's mission vs Ukraine is to conquer legacy "Nazis" (as illogical as that is) and to protect Russian speaking ethnic Russians who've lived in Donbas & Crimea for 50-150 yrs, and to protect Russia from NATO's expansion.
Zelinsky attempted to negotiate an end to the Donbas crisis with Putin in 2018, but crazy, isolated Tsar Putin wouldn't meet him. Now, Zelinsky's trolled online & his life is at risk anytime he appears in public.
I'm hoping Putin's proven dishonesty helps ensure that his dishonest messaging loses impact on Russia's common folk. But for a culture facing cognitive dissonance, pre-existing beliefs, loyalties, & values are very hard to shake, even when convincing proof is providdd.
It's amazing that Trump's style hadn't caught up with him after all these years. When NYC was reeling Trump brought his hubris to Manhattan and became a star in the city's economic resurgence. Of course it helped that the Donald knew the building & carting trade rackets and knew how to squeeze down hard on legal types and all others who got in his way. But, after bringing his talents to Atlantic City, the banking world fell for his "golden touch" until Trump Casino filed bankruptcy.
I was a young Wall St. national accounts banker at the time, and that Trump bankruptcy taught my colleagues & me that the Donald was just a big-talking, swaggering, selfish empty suit with decidedly low credibility. Still, strangely, some other bankers kept lending to Trump Inc. & kept getting burned. Then Trump became a "reality" TV star (premise: anti-social behavior makes employees into superstars!) and every yokel who never knew his corporate & personal chicanery became smitten.
After that Trump & Putin began their strange bromance, and Trump's aspiration to construct Trump Tower Russia - a proposed on paper tallest skyscraper in Europe - became the collar & leash Putin needed to convert Trump into an oligarch envying subject. It helped that Putin's bank could pump billions to finance Trump's cooked-books ventures.
Well-backed by Putin's rubles, trained to lie cheat and defraud with impunity, it's no winder Trump believed he was Teflon, and believed Putin's whispers more than his Director of National Intelligence's AM briefings.
Putin and mafia dons may have imposing "leadership" styles that have "worked". Just like Trump's TV show rewarded "me-first, you-last" office behavior. Those behaviors would be disastrous if everyone embraced that style, but apparently it's been a winning style for the Donald. Trump's base doesn't care. They're not lending Trump Inc. their bank's assets, their just trying to give him more power over their world & country.