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That's way too much to read for some readers, if not all readers.
Amend prior instructions to include generation of an Executive Summary for lengthy responses

Just read what' in bold
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#18 | Posted by snoofy at 2025-03-07 05:34 PM
Connecting some dots here. Tell me if I'm connecting them good!
Trump is following a policy that, if it achieves the stated goal, will bring about malaise and stagflation.

With economic and political caveats re tenuosly connecting "stable genius" Trump to word "policy" instead of to word "tool" and assuming he is "successful" in using it/them to logical conclusion, then you're absolutely "connecting them good!"

Read the AP article in my post to see a perfect example of Maslow's Law [of instruments]: "When your only tool is a hammer, everything looks like a nail."

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#16 | Posted by snoofy at 2025-03-07 11:24 AM
Any gain there is more than undone, just with the on-paper math, simply by factoring in the tariffs.

Ah, that "most beautiful word - tariff" ... another populist idea Trump stole from Democrats, who have been champions of tariffs as protectionist measure on behalf of unions... not that it actually worked to protect the organized American Labor (unions now are at ~10% total, ~6% private labor force), only making it more expensive and "pricing [some] US goods out of the global and domestic markets."

Trump's guru / influencer on tariffs is lifelong Democrat Prof. Peter Navarro.

At least, UAW bosses, as usual, approve of [Trump's] tariffs: "Tariffs are a powerful tool in the toolbox for undoing the injustice of anti-worker trade deals... [UAW] is in active negotiations with the Trump Administration about their plans to end the free trade disaster ... and looks forward to working with the White House to shape the auto tariffs in April to benefit the working class."

And tariffs don't solve the non-issue / non-problem of "national trade deficits" - just create disruptions and big "uncertainty" headaches for supply chain managers.

In a capitalist country / society, national "trade deficit" (bilateral or total) is irrelevant and is just an interesting statistic having no significant economic value (other than possibly tracking supply chains and bottlenecks), except in Trump's warped brain. Countries have very little direct trade between themselves - companies usually import and export goods, depending on supply and demand. For example, if you buy a Rolls-Royce for yourselves and Bentley or Mercedes for your mistress, does that mean the US now has a "trade deficit" with Germany, and "Germany" now has to buy equivalent $$ amount in goods from the US?

What's more, trade deficits not only do not lead to inflation, they help maintain USD "reserve currency" status and may help finance the US gov't debt, as China, Japan and many other countries have been doing until recently.

The US has a heavy equipment and service "trade surplus" with the "rest of the world" including China. Trade "deficit" is often a sign of strong economy and provide millions of retail and wholesale trade-related jobs, including in manufacturing.

Last time the US had "national trade surplus" was in 1970s - those were the "good times," right? "Malaise," stagflation...

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Is Trump Trying to Engineer a Recession?
Traders are starting to price in the possibility that the U.S. economy might fall into a recession - and one Wall Street veteran says that might actually be the Trump administration's plan.

Yes, he does. If recession is likely / has to happen "on your watch" (which seems more likely now) - then having recession as early as possible in your term is preferable, and may even be beneficial:

1. He could (and would) blame Biden (TFG) for the "horrible economy" and will claim that he "fixed it" when economy recovers.

2. Recessions come and go, inflations accumulate. Recessions are generally disinflationary, which could help his "inflation fighter" image.

3. Recent recessions have been short in duration, due to either very generous "stimulus" packages and/or The Fed rapidly lowering interest rates to stimulate business and consumer borrowing and depress savings rates, which in theory should encourage and lead to higher spending, helping the economy recover quickly, but in current environment of Trump's "unpredictability" and consequent general business "uncertainty" the Fed may have a dilemma of lowering Fed rates quickly and risking another bout of higher inflation, which has picked up in recent months. But then he could / would blame the Fed for it.

4. He wants to bring down the USD versus other currencies which [he hopes] could boost exports and reduce borrowing costs and so-called "trade deficit" - there is even talk about "Mar-a-Lago Accord" promoted by Bessent (an obvious copycat attempt of Reagan's 1985 "Plaza Accord" / 1987 "Louvre Accord," with a 'tariff twist' and personal side-benefit of 'Mar-a-Lago' enshrined in economic history) though I doubt it would be successful.

More likely it would backfire and be harmful, like tariffs and bullying of US trading partners / allies, especially on issues that have nothing to do with balance of trade, making the pretext of "trade deficits" obviously false:

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The key is here:

FTA: |------- Trump's fascination with autocrats generally and Putin in particular has been well documented for more than a decade. In 2013, he posted on social media that his hosting of a beauty pageant in Russia might win him Putin's approval.

"Do you think Putin will be going to The Miss Universe Pageant in November in Moscow - if so, will he become my new best friend?" he wrote.

That was followed by years of attempts to build a Trump Tower in Moscow - an effort that continued straight through his first run for president in 2016, it came out later. Trump asked for Russian help to defeat Democrat Hillary Clinton that year, and then knowingly used the hacked and stolen emails that Russian spies released during the final month of the presidential campaign.

Then, as both special counsel Robert Mueller and the Senate Intelligence Committee investigated Russia's role in his victory, Trump eagerly bought into a conspiracy theory concocted by Russian operatives that - contrary to the U.S. intelligence assessment that Russia helped Trump win in 2016 - it was actually Ukraine that had tried to help Clinton win.

Trump sent his personal lawyer, Rudy Giuliani, to Ukraine to collect evidence - an effort that ultimately led to Trump's attempt to extort Zelenskyy into announcing an investigation into the Democrat he most feared in the 2020 election, Joe Biden, using U.S. military aid as leverage. Trump was ultimately impeached for that act, but the Republican-led Senate declined to remove him from office.

Trump's personal antagonism toward Zelenskyy, perhaps stemming from that episode, seems to have continued unabated...
-------|

To paraphrase Corleone, for Trump "It's not just 'business,' it's personal."
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#38 | Posted by brass30 at 2025-02-25 10:06 PM
So break this down for me. ... Ukraine is giving something, I assume they get what in return? And is Ukraine simply giving up the land lost in the war?

It's a nothingburger, PR opportunity for Trump. No one is getting anything of real value, it's MOU - Ukraine is not getting a defense guarantee and is only giving "access" to REE mining in the areas that are now occupied by Russia - just as agreements with financial firms like BlackRock and JPM and several E&P companies to develop gas fields and help post-war reconstruction, signed before and after Russian invasion.

Just another Trump's Apprentice s**tshow to stroke his ego, after his opportunistic extortion offer bombed ("Can't blame a guy for trying, right?") He will sell it as a "great win and looking after the American people."

Putin is selling Trump the same "access" to the same REEs in "new territories":

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#8 | Posted by lfthndthrds at 2025-02-24 09:33 PM
#9 | Posted by lfthndthrds at 2025-02-24 09:34 PM
What has Ukraine ever done for you? ...
Because they're broke --- ------- who cant even afford themselves? Just an idea to ponder...

Have you and Tucker Carlson** been coached together? Because this is one of the stupidest talking points that Russian assets club of "Make America Go Alone" use to deflect from dictator Putin invading Ukraine to subjugate it, erase national identity and fold it into "glorious Russian Federation Empire" before moving on to subsume other countries ... "because they're broke --- ------- who can't even afford to defend themselves. Just an idea to ponder..."

** https://www.butterfliesandwheels.org/2022/a-mere-border-dispute/ :
TC: "Has Putin ever called me a racist? Has he threatened to get me fired for disagreeing with him? Has he shipped every middle-class job in my town to Russia?" Carlson said as he then recited a rightwing tip sheet of pet causes.

So we know what Putin has done for "private messenger" Carlson - in addition to not calling him racist, he "educated" him on Russia-Ukraine "history" in the Moscow interview, and (instead of taking him hostage) let him have a tour of subway and "univermag" (department store/supermarket).

We know what Putin has been doing for his bully asset (aka "man of peace") Trump.

What has Putin done for you?

Czechoslovakia, Poland, Finland, Baltics "have done nothing" for UK and the USA in 1938-1939, so Neville Chamberlain came back from Munich with "Peace for our time" surrender and Molotov-Ribbentrop signed non-aggression Pact - how did that work out?

What message does this send to Taiwan or other Asian "for now" ("for sale?") allies? What confidence do they have that Trump won't sell them out "for peace or treasure" the same way he sold out Kurds and Ukraine?

If anyone has fantasies of the US becoming "great again" going it alone ("America First" / No to "globalism") and divide the world with brutal dictators, then you don't know there has been a very bloody and expensive history of it not that long ago - it would be a very Cold World for the "isolated Americans":

https://time.com/7006686/history-america-first-dawes/ - History Shows How Dangerous 'America First' Really Is - September 10, 2024

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/America_First_Committee - America First Committee

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Tatum - Paul Tatum (doing business in Russia)
"This is entrepreneurs' heaven. There's no telling how quickly [Russia] could develop and how much it could look like the United States in a very short period of time." - Paul Tatum in 1994... gunned down in Russia in 1996.

TrumPutin wants the USA look like Russia.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/01/31/russia-ukraine-rubio-trump/ - Counting up the costs if the U.S. chooses to lose in Ukraine - January 31, 2025

This is about the future - not "globalism" or transactional "who has done what / how much for whom" in the past.
Not getting the vibe yet?
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