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Friday, July 03, 2020

[A] team of researchers largely based in Italy is looking more carefully at the pandemic's spread there as well as the impact of control measures. The researchers have gotten most of the population of a small town to agree to testing before and after Italy's lockdown, providing a window into the behavior of the virus and how things changed during the lockdown. read more


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130,000 known deaths from CoViD-19 in about 6 months.

Top 10 causes of death in 2018 (latest numbers I could quickly find) [Source: this chart from the CDC]

1. Heart disease: 655,381
2. Cancer: 599,274
3. Unintentional injuries: 167,127
4. Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 159,486
5. Cerebrovascular diseases: 147,810
6. Alzheimer's: 122,019
7. Diabetes mellitus: 84,946
8. Influenza and pneumonia: 59,120
9. Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome and nephrosis: 51,386
10. Intentional self-harm (suicide): 48,344

So, CoViD-19 has already beaten #6, and will likely break into the top 5 in the next month. Can we stop pretending this isn't a serious disease?

Let's look at some stats: 125,000 deaths from CoViD-19 in about 6 months.

Top 10 causes of death in 2018 (latest numbers I could quickly find) [Source: this chart from the CDC]

1. Heart disease: 655,381
2. Cancer: 599,274
3. Unintentional injuries: 167,127
4. Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 159,486
5. Cerebrovascular diseases: 147,810
6. Alzheimer's: 122,019
7. Diabetes mellitus: 84,946
8. Influenza and pneumonia: 59,120
9. Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome and nephrosis: 51,386
10. Intentional self-harm (suicide): 48,344

So, CoViD-19 has already beaten #6, and will likely at least break into the top 5 in the next month. Can we stop pretending this isn't a serious disease?

No to the increase being due to more testing in Florida.
experience.arcgis.com
Click on the Testing tab at the bottom. The rate of positives is displayed top right, the neg/pos testing bottom right. These are "normalized" numbers being the rate of positive has increased.
IIRC 5/1 was shen they changed the calculation of the infection rate by including all tests, including retesting. That cut the rate in half, but only briefly. The rate since then, even with that little "trick" didn't last.

#21 | Posted by YAV at 2020-06-24 09:42 PM | Reply

I don't know if this was directed at me, but I wasn't implying the increase in cases in Florida was due to more testing. I was asking if the reduction in the average age of positive cases was due to more testing. In other words, there may have been more young people infected earlier, but it didn't show up because they were only testing the hospitalizations and other severe cases, so the young, relatively asymptomatic cases weren't getting tested.

It was just an idle question. No doubt much of that increase was due to the young folks being more likely to engage in the risky behaviors as well. The dramatic decrease in average age just struck me as something that could at least in part be an artifact of more testing, depending on if the average age of the tested population had also changed.

Florida has clearly manipulated its numbers in a lot of ways to try and hide how bad things actually were/are. This doesn't help any of us understand what's actually happening so we can appropriately react.

My favorite is estimated taxes. You get the privilege (requirement) of pre-paying your taxes to the Fed quarterly based on expected profits.

#15 | Posted by sitzkrieg at 2020-06-24 06:20 PM | Reply | Flag:

And if you overpaid, you get the money back in your return.

I have "estimated taxes" pulled out of every paycheck, based on my estimated earnings for the year. Don't forget, individuals can also be required to pay estimated taxes if they owed too much the previous year. I'm not sure I understand your complaint.

Payroll taxes are based on the employee salary, not your revenue, but also not your profits, so partial credit. Of course, the individual has to pay the same percentage on their entire salary, so probably a bigger hit to them than you.

Unemployment is also based on employee salary, not your revenue nor profits, but it's also less than 10%. Also deductible, I think.

Worker's comp isn't a tax, it's an insurance policy. It may be mandatory, but it's still not a tax and the money doesn't go to the state or federal government. It's also an expense and therefor deductible from your taxes, no? I don't get to deduct my mandatory insurance payments.

Excise and property taxes are deductible too, are they not? And unlike for individuals, there's no cap on those deductions for businesses, correct?

Sales tax collections aren't your taxes, they're taxes on the buyer, so you're not paying them. You also get to deduct the cost of collecting, tracking, and reporting them.

Unlike a business, I don't get to deduct the cost of heating or cooling my home, lighting, any services I hire like landscaping or janitorial services, depreciation of assets, and a bunch of other business expenses. So I think the comparison of businesses paying taxes on profits and individuals paying on total revenue (after minor exemptions) is still a pretty fair assessment, especially when we're talking about wage earners.

The whole point is that these men were doing what they believed was right even if they were wrong. They HAD the legal right to secede from the union. The articles of confederation of 1787 were very clear about the Union being Voluntary.
The constitution was silent on the matter of secession. Lincoln imposed his will on the southern states.

Legally, the Confederacy was on solid ground.

They had the right to separate if they chose.
.
They exercised that right and 640,000 People died for an abstaction called "The Union".

Not to end slavery. That was decided later.

#28 | Posted by Effeteposer at 2020-06-13 06:16 PM | Reply | Flag:

Asserts facts not in evidence. As far as I can tell, this is and has been a minority view among historians and constitutional scholars. Ultimately, what these men did was lead a rebellion against the United States to preserve the institution of slavery. Slavery was the cause, no matter the attempts to dress it up as a "States Rights" issue. The fugitive slave law and their attempts to enforce it on the non-slave states puts a lie to that rationalization. The declarations of secession, and the debates around them, all centered on slavery. See here for some examples.

You don't name bases after historical figures merely to document history, but to honor the individual they are named after. Regardless of what they may have felt was "right", they were fighting for two causes: 1. to dissolve the United States of America, and 2. to protect slavery. I do not find either of these causes worthy of respect or honor. The "lost cause" myth needs to die.

As an example, Bragg wasn't even a particularly good general. Surely, by 1918, North Carolina had someone more worthy of the honor of naming a base after.

Of course, we've been here for decades. Exhibit A: Tobacco Institute
Exhibit B: Global Warming

#5 | Posted by snoofy at 2020-06-13 09:19 PM | Reply | Flag:|

Don't forget the granddaddy, Tetraethyl Lead in gasoline.

The tobacco industry followed the leaded gas playbook.

More on-topic with the thread, there was also a study done that simulated a wide variety of variables, including the effectiveness of the masks, how many people wore them, and even if the wearing of a mask putting the individual at more risk by wearing it (such as from increased touching of the face). The results showed that even in the case where an individual wearing a mask had a higher chance of catching the virus, wearing masks still greatly reduced the spread. The study is here: https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rspa.2020.0376 Hopefully the link works. There's also an article on Ars discussing that study as well.

Bottom line, even if the masks aren't particularly effective, if everyone is wearing them, they work to control an outbreak.

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