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Thursday, September 05, 2024

There isn't one weird trick to steal a presidential election. And there are ample safeguards to ensure ballots are tabulated accurately and election results are certified in a timely manner. read more


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"Don't Trust the Election Forecasts" " Must-Read Justin Grimmer electionlawblog.org

I'm a political scientist who develops and applies machine learning methods, like forecasts, to political problems. The truth is we don't have nearly enough data to know whether these models are any good at making presidential prognostications. And the data we do have suggests these models may have real-world negative consequences in terms of driving down turnout.

Statistical models that aggregate polling data and use it to estimate the probability of each candidate winning an election have become extremely popular in recent years. Proponents claim they provide an unbiased projection of what will happen in November and serve as antidotes to the ad hoc predictions of talking-head political pundits. And of course, we all want to know who is going to win.

But the reality is there's far less precision and far more punditry than forecasters admit ...

In our paper, we show that even under best-case scenarios, determining whether one forecast is better calibrated than another can take 28 to 2,588 years. Focusing on accuracy " whether the candidate the model predicted to win actually wins " doesn't lower the needed time either. Even focusing on state-level results doesn't help much, because the results are highly correlated. Again, under best-case settings, determining whether one model is better than another at the state level can take at least 56 years " and in some cases would take more than 4,000 years' worth of elections ... .

So far I haven't heard any state, other than Georgia, succumbing to pressure from the Trump campaign to refuse to certify.

You sound like the Buffoon pontificating about the non-existent things he's heard.

Similar to the non-existent memory of the DR.

From a couple weeks ago, No, Officials Can't Block Certification of Results

The first post, Informative article. Won't slow down the "chicken littles."

And here we are, clucking about the sky falling.

The most salient quote from an article posted within the reference thread, No effort to block certification thus far has been successful. Each time that local officials have tried, they have been either forced to certify by a court, outvoted by their fellow commissioners or reversed course. Few have faced any consequence, with two notable exceptions. (emphasis mine)

Now, once again, go brush up on the legal definitions of "ministerial" and "discretionary" governmental functions.

Stopping the certification on Jan 6th ...

The topic is certification of local results.

... and if those deadlines are missed?

Good question. The answer is a matter of state law. In Texas (the only state I'm gonna look up), it appears that Chapter 67. Canvassing Elections of the Elections Code does not contemplate that as a possibility. I suspect the reason is because, as discussed in the three articles I've linked, there is simply no legal basis to not comply. The Code says do it. Period. End of Sentence.

Currently Nate Silver has her 14-% below Trump for winning the election.

Don't Trust the Election Forecasts www.politico.com

I'm a political scientist who develops and applies machine learning methods, like forecasts, to political problems. The truth is we don't have nearly enough data to know whether these models are any good at making presidential prognostications. And the data we do have suggests these models may have real-world negative consequences in terms of driving down turnout.

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