But you can see some numbers here breaking down early votes by state, party, and sex: www.nbcnews.com
Sex is a huge factor since females lead substantially in early voting in most swing states (~10% difference) and Harris leads 7-10% with females.
#34 | Posted by censored
I think a big problem is the assumption that Rs leading in early voting means they're leading overall.
The way MAGA treated DeSantis and Haley supporters turned many of them off. So many that they were writing in their preferred candidate in the primaries to the tune of double-digit protest write ins.
I don't think it's a good assumption to think they've suddenly gone Trump (some likely have, but not all) as opposed to writing in someone else now or even leaving POTUS blank and only voting down ballot.
Given how razor thin the margins are, a loss of 3-5% of GOP voters to protests or flat-out Harris votes is a death knell. And that doesn't even account for new voters or independents breaking for Harris because Trump is simply repulsive.
What is this all powerful "media" you keep referring to?
This is a pretty obtuse question.
The hostage narrative has been extremely clear since about June.