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Friday, April 04, 2025

Donald Trump has achieved his first global peace deal. China, Japan and South Korea have kissed and made up after years of trade quarrels. read more


Since Jan. 17, the Friday before Inauguration Day, the U.S. stock market has seen $9.6 trillion in value erased, according to data from FactSet and Dow Jones Market Data. read more


Thursday, April 03, 2025

The Wall Street Journal editorial board: Blowing up the world trading system has consequences that the President isn't advertising. read more


"When McKinley put tariffs on in 1890, they lost 50 percent of their seats ... When Smoot-Hawley put their tariffs In the early 1930s, we lost the House and Senate for 60 years," Sen. Rand Paul said. "So not only bad economically, they are bad politically." read more


A federal judge dismissed the criminal corruption case against New York City Mayor Eric Adams. The case was dismissed "with prejudice," which means the Department of Justice is permanently barred from resurrecting the charges against Adams based on the same evidence used in the case. read more


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More: The end of U.S. economic leadership. Britain played this role through World War I, but it was too weakened by war to continue. The U.S. didn't take up the leadership mantle until after depression and World War II. U.S. leadership and the decision to spread free trade produced seven decades of mostly rising prosperity at home and abroad. The U.S. share of global GDP has been stable at about 25% for decades, even as industries rise and fall.

That era is now ending, as Mr. Trump adopts a more mercantile vision of trade and U.S. self-interest. The result is likely to be every nation for itself, as countries seek to carve up global markets based not on market efficiency but for political advantage. In the worst case, the world trading system could devolve into beggar-thy-neighbor policies as in the 1930s.

The cost in lost American influence will be considerable. Mr. Trump thinks the lure of the U.S. market and American military power are enough to bend countries to his will. But soft power also matters, and that includes being able to trust America's word as a reliable ally and trading partner. Mr. Trump is shattering that trust as he punishes allies and blows up the USMCA that he negotiated in his first term.

A major opportunity for China. The great irony of Mr. Trump's tariffs is that he justifies them in part as a diplomatic tool against China. Yet in his first term Mr. Trump abandoned the Asia-Pacific trade deal that excluded China. Beijing has since struck its own deal with many of those countries.

Mr. Trump's new tariff onslaught is giving China another opening to use its large market to court American allies. South Korea and Japan are the first targets, but Europe is on China's list. Closer trade ties with China, amid doubts about access to the U.S. market, will make these countries less likely to join the U.S. to impose export controls on technology to China or to ban the next Huawei.

Data source:

doge.gov/savings " cancelled federal grants and contracts

USAspending.gov " contract/grant recipient info

github.com & github.com " county-level election data

Tools: Matlab

Methodology: see bsky.app

I retrieved all publicly available cancellations from DOGE on 3/22, which according to DOGE is a subset of all cancellations.

I then cross-referenced them to official spending data on USAspending using links provided by DOGE and ended up with 5,137 and 4,679 contracts and grants with rich metadata.

These metadata include total dollar amounts obligated, dates, and information on contract/grant recipients (address, county, congressional district, etc).

More: I extracted county info (FIPS code) and cross-referenced them to county-level presidential election data from 2024.

For each contract/grant, I found Trump's popular vote margin over Harris in the recipient county.

I plotted every cancellation in red, with total dollar amount obligated on the y axis against Trump-over-Harris margin on x.

There's a bias for more cancellations in Harris counties. But does this reflect true bias or simply more contracts/grants awarded to Harris counties?

To answer this, I need a good background/control set. I compiled all contracts/grants from FY2021-2025 on USAspending, totaling ~19M/24M. ~99% of all cancelled contracts/grants were from this period.

Clearly, the background/control sets (plotted in gray) are distributed across the Trump-Harris spectrum, but the cancellations are biased towards Harris counties.

Potential caveat: DOGE doesn't specify how it chose certain contract/grant cancellations to disclose. They claim the ones disclosed represent "~30% of total savings". It is therefore possible that they made cancellations unbiasedly across the Trump-Harris political spectrum but preferentially disclosed ones to Harris counties for publicity purposes.

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