Here's the big problem that no one talks about very much: Simple and defensible decisions by pollsters can drastically change the reported margin between Harris and Trump. I'll show that the margin can change by as much as eight points. Reasonable decisions produce a margin that ranges from Harris +0.9% to Harris +8%. This reality highlights that we ask far too much of polls. Ultimately, it's hard to know how much poll numbers reflect the decisions of voters - or the decisions of pollsters. read more
Anita Hill - It's not easy to remain calm and collected in the glare of intense public scrutiny, especially when the opposition is set on denying your integrity, competence and accomplishments. But call it grace, poise or dignity, Kamala Harris has managed to make a positive case for her candidacy every day since President Biden endorsed her to take his place on the Democratic ticket. read more
In any election, it's hard to know whose word to trust. That's why the criticism of Donald Trump by those who served with him in the White House and by members of his own party is so striking. Dozens of people who know him well, including the 91 listed here, have raised alarms about his character and fitness for office - his family and friends, world leaders and business associates, his fellow conservatives and his political appointees - even though they had nothing to gain from doing so. read more
Michelle Obama challenged men to support Kamala Harris bid to be America's first female president, warning at a rally in Michigan on Saturday that women's lives would be at risk if Donald Trump returned to the White House. The former first lady described the assault on abortion rights as the harbinger of dangerous limitations on healthcare for women. read more
Wetter, more destructive hurricanes, like the back-to-back storms that pummeled Florida this fall, are pushing the state's homeowners insurance market to the brink of collapse. [I]t was then-governor Republican Rick Scott, now a U.S. senator, who lured low-quality insurance companies to the state and left Florida's publicly owned insurer-of-last-resort agency struggling to provide for more homeowners as private insurers went bust or refused to renew policies in hurricane-prone areas. read more
Kamala Harris Campaign Chair Spots Turnout Detail That Explains Why 'We're Very Confident'Wow, actual data informing a prediction instead of blind misogyny, racism and bigotry. Go figure.
Jen O'Malley Dillon, the chair of Kamala Harris' 2024 presidential campaign, explained on Sunday why she believes the Democratic nominee will emerge triumphant over GOP rival, former President Donald Trump.
"We feel very good about where we are, we are very confident we are going to win this thing," O'Malley Dillon told MSNBC's Jen Psaki.
It's going to be a "close race," she acknowledged. But Harris, she continued, still has "multiple pathways" to the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House and is "on track" for victory.
"We are seeing high turnout everywhere. We are definitely seeing that our voters are turning out," she said, adding there are more Democratic low-propensity voters currently showing up than Republican ones.
"Just in the last two days in Clark County in Nevada, for instance, where Las Vegas is, we have seen higher youth turnout in the last two days than we have seen at any other point this cycle," she noted. In Michigan, meanwhile, O'Malley Dillon said "we had 145,000 voters vote early just yesterday alone."
"So we really like what we are seeing. We are seeing strong turnout. Our margins are strong, and the folks that we're focused on, those lower propensity voters that don't always vote, they are tuning in and showing up at a high-level in support of the vice president," she added.
Related:
Liz Cheney Is Certain That Kamala Harris Will Win
"Kamala Harris is going to be the next president of the United States."
I wasn't surprised by the prediction - Cheney is campaigning energetically for Harris to defeat Trump - but I was struck that the former vice chair of the Jan. 6 House select committee did not primarily argue that threats to democracy would lift Harris to victory.
Rather, she said that in her conversations with independent and undecided voters, what is really moving them into Harris's corner was "what a second Trump term would mean for the women of this country." She specifically cited the draconian Republican bans and limits on reproductive health care and other medical needs that have led to traumatic and disabling injuries for pregnant women in Texas and other states with bans in place.
She said she thought women would rally against Trump in enormous numbers, seeing him as a fundamentally cruel and depraved person who did not care about their health, rights or well-being.
Oh lookie what just turned up.
Trumpy gets caught lying again. Yawn, ... it is a day ending in Y, right?
It is sad that women had to be stripped of their basic right to control their bodies - and to be threatened with the loss of lifesaving medical care - for Kamala to even have a chance to get the votes of enough women to offset losing the votes of so many men.Never underestimate the power of a woman.
Trump is running a hypermasculine campaign - with Chief Bro Elon Musk bizarrely bouncing up and down - that is breathtakingly offensive to women. Trump is exploiting the crisis among Gen Z men, a crisis driven by loneliness, Covid isolation, economic insecurity, a lack of purpose and a feeling that the modern world seems more accommodating to young women.
Trump is a renowned predator and groper who has been found liable for sexual abuse. But he has the gall to cast Kamala as "retarded," "lazy as hell" and a "bitch" and ask, "Does she drink? Is she on drugs?"
Barack Obama punctured the MAGA macho myth at a rally with Kamala on Thursday. Putting down people is not "real strength," he said. Real strength is standing up for those who can't stand up for themselves. "That's what we should want in our daughters and our sons," Obama said. "And that's what I want to see in the president of the United States of America."
Why are the Democrats losing?
I wonder if we can find examples of this from the early voting returns.
Marshall: Early Hints of Roevember?But it's the Dems showing hubris in the face of reality? Might wanna recalculate that if the above numbers hold close for the entire electorate.
Something I noticed in the first days of early voting was that most of the swing states that surfaced gender breakdowns for early voting showed around a ten point spread between men (~45) and woman (~55). There are more women than men and women vote more than men. But we're also seeing a lot more Republican early voting. All things being equal that high rate of Republican early voting should be compressing that gender divide. But it's not.
There are two other swing states releasing gender breakdown data for the early votes. And the numbers are comparable and actually larger. In Georgia it's 11.2 percentage points and in Michigan it's 13.1 percentage points.
lfthndthrds = moron
GOP Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell rebukes RNC, calls Jan. 6 violent insurrection'Need any more?
"It was a violent insurrection for the purpose of trying to prevent the peaceful transfer of power after a legitimately certified election from one administration to the next."
There's no question - none - that President Trump is practically and morally responsible for provoking the events of the day. No question about it," he said then, calling it "a disgraceful, disgraceful dereliction of duty."
Top Trump Campaign Official Shared Tweets Calling Jan. 6 An Insurrection' Stoked By Election Lies
Nine different federal judges have blamed Trump for January 6th
In fifteen cases overseen by nine different judges appointed by Republican and Democratic presidents, courts have not minced words in declaring that Trump was the central cause of the January 6, 2021 insurrection, echoing the findings of the bipartisan January 6th Select Committee. Time and again judges have found that Trump inflamed his supporters with the lie of a "stolen" election, urged them to "fight" to take back their country, and sent them to the Capitol to "stop the steal." Trump used violent rhetoric to whip his supporters into a frenzy and do illegally what he had tried and failed to do legally: stop certification of the election for Joe Biden.
#1 | Posted by Bluewaffles at 2024-10-27 07:08 PM
Seems like the Trump campaign isn't feelin' the same burn as ChokingEggos.
Elon Musk up there having the time of his life and Melanie coming out to Paradise City rofl y'all are going down.