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Monday, October 28, 2024

Here's the big problem that no one talks about very much: Simple and defensible decisions by pollsters can drastically change the reported margin between Harris and Trump. I'll show that the margin can change by as much as eight points. Reasonable decisions produce a margin that ranges from Harris +0.9% to Harris +8%. This reality highlights that we ask far too much of polls. Ultimately, it's hard to know how much poll numbers reflect the decisions of voters - or the decisions of pollsters. read more


Anita Hill - It's not easy to remain calm and collected in the glare of intense public scrutiny, especially when the opposition is set on denying your integrity, competence and accomplishments. But call it grace, poise or dignity, Kamala Harris has managed to make a positive case for her candidacy every day since President Biden endorsed her to take his place on the Democratic ticket. read more


Sunday, October 27, 2024

In any election, it's hard to know whose word to trust. That's why the criticism of Donald Trump by those who served with him in the White House and by members of his own party is so striking. Dozens of people who know him well, including the 91 listed here, have raised alarms about his character and fitness for office - his family and friends, world leaders and business associates, his fellow conservatives and his political appointees - even though they had nothing to gain from doing so. read more


Michelle Obama challenged men to support Kamala Harris bid to be America's first female president, warning at a rally in Michigan on Saturday that women's lives would be at risk if Donald Trump returned to the White House. The former first lady described the assault on abortion rights as the harbinger of dangerous limitations on healthcare for women. read more


Wetter, more destructive hurricanes, like the back-to-back storms that pummeled Florida this fall, are pushing the state's homeowners insurance market to the brink of collapse. [I]t was then-governor Republican Rick Scott, now a U.S. senator, who lured low-quality insurance companies to the state and left Florida's publicly owned insurer-of-last-resort agency struggling to provide for more homeowners as private insurers went bust or refused to renew policies in hurricane-prone areas. read more


Comments

Not a single Republican lawmaker voted for the Inflation Reduction Act in 2022. Since then, many of them have voted to repeal its clean energy provisions and criticized the law as a waste of taxpayer money.

According to The Post's analysis, congressional districts that favored Trump in the 2020 election received three times as much clean energy and manufacturing investments as those that leaned toward Biden.

Districts where a plurality of voters backed Trump have claimed around $165 billion of the cash so far, compared with just $54 billion in areas where Biden came in first. Of the top 10 districts that have attracted the most clean energy investments, nine are led by Republican lawmakers.

Clean energy spending has skyrocketed since the IRA became law, up 85 percent compared with the preceding two years. Some technologies - like battery manufacturing, sustainable aviation fuels and carbon capture - have surged, going from almost no investment to tens of billions of dollars. Experts say that without the new funding, it's difficult to imagine those sectors taking off.

Developers are drawn to red districts because land is plentiful and cheap, experts say.

"Most of this can just be explained by population density," said Trevor Houser, a partner at Rhodium Group. In rural areas, which are much more likely to vote Republican, ample land - at lower prices - can support giant battery manufacturing plants or large-scale wind farms.

Others point to red states' low taxes and tax incentives for developers. "It's natural that investors and project developers are wanting to go into areas where they've got a predictable business environment," said Jeremy Harrell, the CEO of ClearPath, a conservative clean energy advocacy group. States like Tennessee, Georgia and Ohio, he said, have less regulatory red tape that could slow big energy projects.

This is prima facie evidence of Democrats completely sucking at messaging. I guarantee you that there are very few non-documenteds filling these good-paying jobs in red districts and states even while GOP representatives of these districts continue to try and repeal the Act as 'wasteful spending.'

Just another example of why Democratic administrations always see more economic growth than Republican ones. Democrats look to the future while GOPers look longingly for a past they neither lived nor understood, but a past controlled and dominated by men, nominally white men like their leadership and donors.

Democrats could have put stipulations on the IRA spending, but they didn't because the goal is to help all Americans by reducing our dependence on fossil fuels while building the industries of tomorrow for a cleaner energy future. Consider it a success regardless of what your favorite Republican might be saying about it. Numbers don't lie, but GOPers do as easy as they breathe air.

The 4 key questions for pollsters

1. Do respondents match the electorate demographically in terms of sex, age, education, race, etc.? (This was a problem in 2016.)

2. Do respondents match the electorate politically after the sample is adjusted by demographic factors? (This was the problem in 2020.)

3. Which respondents will vote?

4. Should the pollster trust the data?

To show how the answers to these questions can affect poll results, I use a national survey conducted from October 7 - 14, 2024. The sample included 1,924 self-reported registered voters drawn from an online, high-quality panel commonly used in academic and commercial work.

After dropping the respondents who said they were not sure who they would vote for (3.2%) and those with missing demographics, the unweighted data give Harris a 6 percentage point lead - 51.6 % to 45.5% - among the remaining 1,718 respondents.

*Adjusting for demographic factors
*Adjusting for political factors
*Adjusting for likely voters
*Do I trust this data?

After all of this, there is still a critical limitation. Even if we correctly predict what the 2024 electorate will look like in terms of demographics and partisanship, our adjustments only work if the voters who took the poll have the same views as similar voters who did not take the poll. This is a foundational assumption of polling.

The performance of polls thus depends on the opinions of both voters and pollsters in ways that are often hard to discern. This election year, are the polls virtually tied because voters are tied, because pollsters think the race is tied, or both?

We would all do better to temper our expectations about pre-election polls. It's impossible to ensure that the polls will reliably predict close races given the number of decisions that pollsters have to make. And it's often hard for consumers of polls to know how much the results reflect the opinions of the voters or the pollsters.

Kamala Harris Campaign Chair Spots Turnout Detail That Explains Why 'We're Very Confident'

Jen O'Malley Dillon, the chair of Kamala Harris' 2024 presidential campaign, explained on Sunday why she believes the Democratic nominee will emerge triumphant over GOP rival, former President Donald Trump.

"We feel very good about where we are, we are very confident we are going to win this thing," O'Malley Dillon told MSNBC's Jen Psaki.

It's going to be a "close race," she acknowledged. But Harris, she continued, still has "multiple pathways" to the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House and is "on track" for victory.

"We are seeing high turnout everywhere. We are definitely seeing that our voters are turning out," she said, adding there are more Democratic low-propensity voters currently showing up than Republican ones.

"Just in the last two days in Clark County in Nevada, for instance, where Las Vegas is, we have seen higher youth turnout in the last two days than we have seen at any other point this cycle," she noted. In Michigan, meanwhile, O'Malley Dillon said "we had 145,000 voters vote early just yesterday alone."

"So we really like what we are seeing. We are seeing strong turnout. Our margins are strong, and the folks that we're focused on, those lower propensity voters that don't always vote, they are tuning in and showing up at a high-level in support of the vice president," she added.

Wow, actual data informing a prediction instead of blind misogyny, racism and bigotry. Go figure.

Think about it: No presidential nominees in modern history have faced such a direct challenge to the authenticity of their identity and by extension their qualifications to be the president.

I can tell you with confidence that the various and sundry racist, misogynist and sexist insults hurled at Ms. Harris must sting. They are a reminder of the disgraceful lengths that Republican senators took to shame me when I challenged Clarence Thomas's fitness to be appointed to the Supreme Court. What helped me stay composed was knowing that I was not the first woman to have her sanity, truthfulness and virtue falsely impugned. Even now, when I am attacked, my mother's firm but gentle admonition rings in my ears: "You know who you are and what you can do." Lesson learned: Never let the people who despise you define you.

One key to surviving under such pressure is to forcefully embrace the value of your own capabilities and principles. "Don't be confined to other people's perception about what this looks like, and how you should act in order to be," Ms. Harris said this year.

One facet of Vice President Harris's dignity is her recognition of the right of others to be treated with respect. Take Republican Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders's remark that "my kids keep me humble. Unfortunately, Kamala Harris doesn't have anything keeping her humble." Ms. Sanders's statement was a clumsy attempt to alienate Ms. Harris from women with children. Ms. Harris responded by showing her commitment to valuing all women. She spoke with heart about her love of being a stepmother to two children. And she reminded us that women are routinely made aware of our own shortcomings and limitations - whether or not we have kids.

By staying true to herself - her refusal to be thrown on the defensive by personal attacks - Ms. Harris is showing people how to protect and nurture their own self-worth. I say this because I have witnessed how composure under duress can inspire others.

"You know who you are and what you can do." Lesson learned: Never let the people who despise you define you.

Perfect reminder for those Retort posters thinking that anyone is influenced by their unhinged personal attacks, masquerading as critique. Unlike them, one thing that Kamala has not done since she ascended to the top of her ticket is to gripe and complain about what others say about her. She's remained focus on one goal - earning the right to serve this nation and all its people as a President respecting of laws and the Constitution, not one who's trying to bend, pervert, or destroy both in service of an anti-freedom/pro fascist/pro criminal agenda.

As part of a years-long crusade to force more Floridians into the private insurance market, Scott raised premiums and rescinded discounts from the Citizens Property Insurance Corp., the government-backed nonprofit insurer, all while giving private companies extra incentives and protections to operate in the state.

Now that warming-fueled storms are routinely causing billions of dollars in damage across Florida, private insurers are fleeing the state, forcing customers back to Citizens. But now the deals the public insurer offers come with higher premiums and worse coverage.

Now Scott's Democratic challenger for Senate, former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, is hoping voters can make the connection between Scott's eight years as governor and the financial squeeze caused as insurers increasingly fail to pay to repair properties damaged in hurricanes Helene and Milton.

Once voters draw the link between the devastation and the inability to get affordable coverage, "you're going to see people here in the state push back very, very strongly against these electeds that have been here and done nothing," she said.

"It's borderline criminal," she added. "People are so angry, frustrated and exhausted. Helene brought flooding. Then Milton made everything worse."

This has been an underlying current running silently through Florida politics for the last few years - especially since Florida's incurred 4 major hurricane strikes in the last 2 years. The stories are numerous of people living near the coasts unable to afford living in Florida any longer between the cycles of rebuilding and then re-decimation from subsequent hurricanes, compounded by insurance costs only the wealthy can afford - gutting century's old Florida coastal communities of its working class residents and retirees on modest incomes.

And the Republican Florida legislature's answer to these problems is to strike any mention of climate change from government, as though that alone will solve the problems. And there's this too:

Scott slashed environmental regulations and cut funding for Florida's water management agency by $700 million, setting the stage for a toxic algae bloom that decimated fisheries and the coastal tourism business in 2018. Scott's critics skewered him with the nickname "red tide Rick," and the issue hurt the Republican in the polls.

"He was red tide Rick'... People living in Florida for a very long time know him very well," Mucarsel-Powell said.

"The homeowners insurance crisis that we're facing right now started under Rick Scott," she said.

Just after taking office in 2011, Scott signed legislation eliminating Citizens' caps on premium increases, causing the cost of coverage to skyrocket.

Citizens then launched a campaign to re-audit homes that state-sanctioned inspectors had already deemed ready for a major storm as part of a process to qualify for an insurance discount. Of the more than 250,000 homeowners Citizens double-checked, three out of four lost discounts, the Tampa Bay Times reported in 2012.

This is Republican governance at its finest. It's only a matter of time until Floridians figure out that someone other than its current stewards need to be given power in order to right all that's gone wrong by allowing the GOP anti-science agenda to take root in their state government to the detriment of the people trying to live and thrive there.

Related:

Liz Cheney Is Certain That Kamala Harris Will Win

"Kamala Harris is going to be the next president of the United States."

I wasn't surprised by the prediction - Cheney is campaigning energetically for Harris to defeat Trump - but I was struck that the former vice chair of the Jan. 6 House select committee did not primarily argue that threats to democracy would lift Harris to victory.

Rather, she said that in her conversations with independent and undecided voters, what is really moving them into Harris's corner was "what a second Trump term would mean for the women of this country." She specifically cited the draconian Republican bans and limits on reproductive health care and other medical needs that have led to traumatic and disabling injuries for pregnant women in Texas and other states with bans in place.

She said she thought women would rally against Trump in enormous numbers, seeing him as a fundamentally cruel and depraved person who did not care about their health, rights or well-being.

Some men may be tempted to vote for Trump because of their anger at the slow pace of progress, Obama said, but "your rage does not exist in a vacuum."

"If we don't get this election right, your wife, your daughter, your mother, we as women will become collateral damage to your rage," Obama said. "So are you as men prepared to look into the eyes of the women and children you love and tell them you supported this assault on our safety?"

"I lay awake at night wondering, What in the world is going on?'" she said.

Her voice vibrating with emotion, Obama talked about the struggle for women to understand and care for their own bodies, whether it's their menstrual cycles or menopause. And she spoke about the dangers of childbirth, when a split-second decision can mean the difference between life and death for a mother and her baby.

"I am asking y'all from the core of my being to take our lives seriously," Obama pleaded.

[Obama's] remarks were searing and passionate in their support of Harris.

"By every measure, she has demonstrated that she's ready," the former first lady said. "The real question is, as a country, are we ready for this moment?"

Obama added, "Do not buy into the lies that we do not know who Kamala is or what she stands for. This is somebody who understands you, all of you."

It's going to be glorious if indeed women lead this nation away from the vileness of Trump, one of the most unrepentant, misogynistic, sexually assaulting reprobate to ever win a major party nomination.

Regardless of what the men do, this election will be decided by women, the class who has the most to lose should Trump win the presidency again. And Trump is running the most anti-woman campaign perhaps in American history, but certainly since women have had the right to vote. And more women vote than do men so which demographic is most important?

Yeah, he's quite the stable genius after all.

Oh lookie what just turned up.

Trumpy gets caught lying again. Yawn, ... it is a day ending in Y, right?

Why are the Democrats losing?

I wonder if we can find examples of this from the early voting returns.

Marshall: Early Hints of Roevember?

Something I noticed in the first days of early voting was that most of the swing states that surfaced gender breakdowns for early voting showed around a ten point spread between men (~45) and woman (~55). There are more women than men and women vote more than men. But we're also seeing a lot more Republican early voting. All things being equal that high rate of Republican early voting should be compressing that gender divide. But it's not.

There are two other swing states releasing gender breakdown data for the early votes. And the numbers are comparable and actually larger. In Georgia it's 11.2 percentage points and in Michigan it's 13.1 percentage points.

But it's the Dems showing hubris in the face of reality? Might wanna recalculate that if the above numbers hold close for the entire electorate.

lfthndthrds = moron

GOP Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell rebukes RNC, calls Jan. 6 violent insurrection'

"It was a violent insurrection for the purpose of trying to prevent the peaceful transfer of power after a legitimately certified election from one administration to the next."

There's no question - none - that President Trump is practically and morally responsible for provoking the events of the day. No question about it," he said then, calling it "a disgraceful, disgraceful dereliction of duty."

Top Trump Campaign Official Shared Tweets Calling Jan. 6 An Insurrection' Stoked By Election Lies

Nine different federal judges have blamed Trump for January 6th

In fifteen cases overseen by nine different judges appointed by Republican and Democratic presidents, courts have not minced words in declaring that Trump was the central cause of the January 6, 2021 insurrection, echoing the findings of the bipartisan January 6th Select Committee. Time and again judges have found that Trump inflamed his supporters with the lie of a "stolen" election, urged them to "fight" to take back their country, and sent them to the Capitol to "stop the steal." Trump used violent rhetoric to whip his supporters into a frenzy and do illegally what he had tried and failed to do legally: stop certification of the election for Joe Biden.

Need any more?

U.S. officials said in a statement sent by the FBI that they believe the video was "manufactured and amplified" by Russian actors. The officials said it's part of "Moscow's broader effort to raise unfounded questions about the integrity of the U.S. election and stoke divisions among Americans."

The information was released by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, the FBI and the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency.

The Bucks County Board of Elections had identified the video as fake on Thursday, saying the envelope and other materials in the video "are clearly not authentic materials belonging to or distributed by" the board.

For those who claim to be tired of "Russia, Russia, Russia" maybe you should ask why almost every single day another Russian mal-information attempt is found actively trying to influence or inflame voters in key swing states through posts on X.
The video showed a person sorting through what looked like mail ballots labeled as coming from Bucks County. The person, who was Black, appeared to be tearing up ballots marked for Trump, and leaving alone ballots marked for Vice President Kamala Harris.

Researchers who closely study Russian foreign influence campaigns had previously connected the video to a Russian disinformation network known as Storm-1516 or CopyCop. The network has previously shared numerous videos with false claims about Harris and her running mate, Tim Walz.

Imagine if Musk didn't own and control X, and the stronger debunking and removal standards established in the aftermath of Russia's 2016 campaign were still in place. Now do you understand why Musk buying Twitter - after being talked to and allegedly threatened by Putin in 2022 - might be the most singular effective method of insuring Russian disinformation continues to negatively impact faith in our elections with an almost unfettered access to American media's political bloodstream?

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