So the ticking clock element

Experts have been estimating that the defensive missile systems will begin to run out, completely, over the next few days, from as early as this weekend for some interceptors in Israel to mid April for some of our THAAD systems

After that, we will have little defense against Iranian missiles and drones.

Now these estimates could be off a day or two here or there, but I think generally speaking pretty decent estimates (they come from MIC adjacent think tanks).

Piggy said by April 6, a week from Monday as a deadline for negotiations.

That lines up with the defensive missiles running out

That also lines up with the MEU's arriving in theater.

Oh and Senate and Congressional leaders are hinting at a ground campaign in the coming days.

PLUS

Piggy is contemplating sending another 10,000 troops including artillery and armor

So, umm, yeah

Anyone think Piggy is being honest about negotiations?

As per Iranian Government request, please let this statement serve to represent that I am pausing the period of Energy Plant destruction by 10 Days to Monday, April 6, 2026, at 8 P.M., Eastern Time. Talks are ongoing and, despite erroneous statements to the contrary by the Fake News Media, and others, they are going very well. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP

Also

The Iranian negotiators are very different and "strange." They are "begging" us to make a deal, which they should be doing since they have been militarily obliterated, with zero chance of a comeback, and yet they publicly state that they are only "looking at our proposal." WRONG!!! They better get serious soon, before it is too late, because once that happens, there is NO TURNING BACK, and it won't be pretty! President DJT

Apparently the Fake News Media includes Donald J. Trump's Truth Social account

So apparently NO tankers traversed the strait not the 10 "GIFT" tankers

Piggy lied

Again

As an aside

We have been at war for nearly 4 weeks, and the President of the United States can't be bothered to address the nation and explained what the ---- we are doing there.

Treason for not reporting the nuclear bomb wielding suicide bombers?

Trump calls for treason charges against media over Iran war coverage
Trump has said that media companies should face "treason" charges for "fake news" on the Iran war, while his Federal Communications Commission (FCC) chief, Brendan Carr, has told broadcasters to fall in line with the US administration or risk losing their licence.

See what I mean?

So

Vice-President JD Vance claimed Iran could have suicide bombers with nuclear weapons attached to their vests

This is what the American government is claiming.

This puts Powell's vial of talcum powder to shame.

Suicide bombers with nuclear bombs strapped to their chests

BTW, Iran is Shia

It is the Sunnis who are into the suicide bomber thing. Shia are not.

But don't let a little ignorant islamophobia get in the way of a good story

I guess Piggy was lying about Iran begging to surrender

Trump considering 10,000 additional ground troops for Middle East: Report
The Pentagon is considering the deployment of up to 10,000 additional ground troops to the Middle East to give US President Donald Trump more military options, even as he talks up peace negotiations with Iran, US media report.

According to The Wall Street Journal, citing Department of Defense officials with knowledge of the planning, the force, which would likely include infantry and armoured vehicles, would be added to the roughly 5,000 Marines and some 2,000 paratroopers from the 82nd Airborne Division who have already been ordered to the region.

Oh yeah

Dow down 10% since the war started.

Yay!

I continue to believe that we will lose this war and that this war will last a long time and the damage that this war will cause will be global and catastrophic.

Nothing in the past week has impacted that belief

Piggy is sending forces to the region. And Piggy has ALWAYS used the military for violence when he has done that. As a comparison, he never sent military forces to Greenland

That tells me that he will use the military for some half assed land attack. Probably a snatch and grab of the nuclear material.

FWIW, this would be a major escalation and will likely occur in the midst of negotiations (as broad a term as it needs to be to apply to what is happening), yet again.

I have laid out my thoughts on the land attack options, or clearing the strait ad nauseum. So there is not much to add in that regard. Except maybe the MEUs could be used for raiding operations. they would be lower risk for casualties.

But if Piggy sends 1,000 or 2,000 troops to seize the nuclear material expect a fiasco. Is the nuclear material even still there? How good is the intelligence on it's location? How will those troops be supplied and supported deep into Iranian territory? How close to major population centers are those facilities?

I assume that we are degrading the defenses around those facilities. But that is one of the negatives here, we will have not operational or strategic surprise. Iran knows there are a few targets for attack-Kharg Island, the Strait, the nuclear facilities. that helps them greatly in crafting a defense.

I hope for our troops that we have actually truly seriously degraded their defenses, but I find that incredibly doubtful

20 years in the Taliban could still kick ass

And Israel continues to commit war crimes. They tortured a 1-year-old, burning him with cigarettes.

These are our allies.

Farmers, right now, are making planting decisions. They are planting crops right now. There is a massive shortfall of fertilizer. that means crop yields will be down. Maybe 10%, maybe 30% I'm no expert but assuredly they will be down. Those crops are harvested from May to July, meaning yes food shortages coming this August with skyrocketing costs. That is inevitable, nothing can be done to prevent that. that ship has sailed.

The NY Times reported that our military has been chased out of our Gulf bases. they are now staying in hotels and high rises through the ME. Working war by remote. Ain't that meta.

America bombed and killed several regular Iraqi army soldiers, so that happened. I am sure that will be fine.

President Piggy apparently doesn't read even the simplified Presidential Daily Briefing relying on war porn for his update on how the war is going.

Piggy and the right wing propaganda machine criticize reporting of the war. But from my perspective American media, is once again, utterly failing at their job. You don't hear actual anti war voices front and center. You hear credulous reporting of the mad king's madness. You have war porn. You have them calling Israel's war of aggression as setting up a "buffer zone" and not what it is stealing land from another country.

Framing matters.

BTW, what the F happened with the USS Gerald Ford. The pride of our navy was subjected to a fire that lasted 30 hours. As a point of reference former Senator McCain accidentally released a missile on the USS Forrestall that exploded and caused a fire that lasted 17 hours. What the actual F is going on there?! This should be a HUGE story! Was the ship hit? Was it sabotage? DID MEMBERS OF THE US NAVY MUTINY??????

Mutiny?! Unprecedented doesn't even begin to cover it.

But our government can't be bothered to tell us what happened with our $14 Billion dollar ship. Can't be bothered to tell us that members of our military may have mutinied.

And understand that ship will be out of commission for many many months.

So, how is the war going?

Well, if you are like me you are on a roller coaster of emotion, negotiations going well! Negotiations not happening! Gift from Iran?! Irreconcilable conditions on 2 sides without Israel even mention!
Peace next week or the week after. Troops rushing to the theater. Iran setting up a toll system. America is blowing up ----! AMERICA! --------!

For someone following closely like myself, there seems to be a sort of settling in of the conflict. America bombs Iran. Iran sends missiles out. Iran controlling traffic in strait. Israel committing war crimes. Not just a pattern but a realignment of reality where it just seems like the war and world is becoming something new and something lasting like a new normal. That feeling came slower in 2003 and 2004 when the Iraq war went sideways. The current war seems like it will be here for a while. Which is odd because so many pundits talk like it will be over by the tax day.

I remind people Russia and Ukraine have been having negotiations for years. Despite Piggy's insane and contradictory pronouncements, the negotiations do not seem to be bearing fruit.

Piggy did push back the war on Iran's power plants to April 6, probably because as anyone following developments that will be around when the 2 Marine units will arrive on station and be ready for action.

So, yeah, cards look like escalation.

Have we heard from Piggy in like the last few days

Iran gave us a huge present
Iran called him, he didn't call them
They have essentially reached agreement on everything
He doesn't know who is making decisions in Iran
War is won
Iran better get serious before it's too late
If Iran doesn't surrender he will destroy their power plants
Iran and America have been having terrific talks
Iran is desperate to make a deal
Piggy isn't ready to end war, though Iran wants to
You don't do a ceasefire when you're literally obliterating the other side
Iran has to unconditionally surrender
He was talking to the right people to get a deal
America has destroyed Iran's ability to communicate with each other
We have killed the top leaders, then the 2nd level of leaders and most of the 3rd levels of leaders

Another pertinent fact is that America attacked Iran during negotiations, without warning or declaration of war, TWICE

Turns out Pakistan is acting as a go-between for these negotiations that "aren't happening."
Former deputy special envoy for Iran on negotiations between US and Iran to end war

#23 | Posted by qcp

How long have negotiations been taking between Russia and Ukraine?

What do you think the impact on the US will be if the Iran war lasts as long as the Russia-Ukraine war?

"Trump is imagining these negotiations out of a deep and sick persona need"
Personally, I don't know what the truth is.
But it's interesting that you automatically take the word of the Iranian regime without question.

Funny that Bill doesn't see it, doesn't see what he is saying.

Right here is he saying HE doesn't trust what Piggy is saying. "Personally, I don't know what the truth is." He is saying, definitively, that he cannot trust what Piggy is saying, that Piggy is lying.

He just can't take the next logical step and conclude that since Piggy is lying, that the negotiations aren't taking place, at least as Piggy is presenting them.

SC will overthrow

The goal of the war seems to have shifted to opening the strait of Hormuz, which was open before the war.

I remain of the opinion that the forces being sent are not to capture islands or seize the nuclear material, the force in theater and being sent is grossly inadequate to those ends.

I heard on a military podcast that the marines are ideally suited for raids-get in do damage get out.

That might be their purpose

Or as a QRF for threatened embassies.

The Iraq situation is deteriorating, maybe they are reserves for that situation.

The thing to keep an eye out is if Piggy calls in the National Reserves. That would indicate a true land campaign.

But, again, we are at a serious operational disadvantage for any land campaign. As the Rus-Uk war shows drones completely change the battle front. Where can our troops safely assemble free of drone? Russia abuts Ukraine. We would have to set up a jumping off point for any campaign well within drone range. which will subject our forces to attack during assembly.

I honestly don't have any good concept of what the land campaign could encompass. Probably I am missing some basic options, I admittedly am not an expert on modern warfare, but the stuff being discussed, Kharge Island and seizing the nuke material seem like incredibly bad ideas.

It is obvious that Piggy is desperate. At best he is manipulating the markets for corrupt purposes. More likely he is flailing for a solution. Some in his circle may even be pointing out the poor situation he finds himself in, maybe.

It really would be helpful if Piggy wasn't surrounded by sycophants who tell him what he wants to hear.

Desperation breeds defeat. Enemies can smell it and exploit it.

Maybe Iran is taking enough damage for them to consider negotiating, but no matter what else, they will be coming to negotiations from a position of power.

That is the opposite of any reasonable goal America would want to achieve with Iran

The tea leaves have been hard to read as to what is actually going on with regards to negotiations, I admit I am not an expert on the diplomatic speak and the interworking of the various middle eastern regimes. But the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Gaza war certainly had months and years of negotiations (in the Russian-Ukraine war that have not even reached peace).

So, my gut says these "negotiations" will go nowhere

Meanwhile, Piggy is sending more troops to the ME

Despite Hegseth's bizarre, childish rants, America's military is executing a war of diminishing returns. More and more effort to destroy less and less

Despite the Trump administration lies, Iran's military capability is nowhere near degraded. As has been explained repeatedly Iran is winning that war.

America has lost several strategic objectives since the start of the war:

1. Nuclear material still not seized.
2. Iran regime more radicalized and hard line
3. Iran more motivated to develop nuclear weapons
4. Strait of Hormuz under Iranian control
5. Military stockpiles being depleted
6. Nascent Iranian opposition silenced or moved towards agreement with regime.
7. Damage to Gulf State partners with long term questions as to our security agreements with them
8. De Facto lifting of sanctions against Iranian oil.
9. Lifting of sanctions against Russian oil, which will allow Russia to pursue their war with Ukraine with more resources
10. Stretching of our strategic/global resources in Europe and the Far East, denuding those areas of resources used as a deterrent to aggression
11. Further weakening of our relationships with our allies.

And to believe our administration the above is offset by us blowing up some speedboats and missile launchers

To be clear

America or Israel bombed regular armed forces of Iraq. Not some random militia group but the actual army of Iraq.

That is not good

Some other observations

Iran now controls the movement of around 20% of the world's oil

Basic supply and demand will cause the price of oil to rise

But that rate of movement means a volume of oil that passes through the system to the nations of the world on a daily basis.

A portion of that volume is no longer available. So, not only will rich nations be paying far higher prices, but poorer nations will also simply NOT have oil. These are nations with limited or no reserves or alternatives to rely on. That means these poorer nations will not have power for industry, for hospitals, for schools, for their economy. This war will cause massive harm to these countries

Israel is expanding its war on Lebanon even further expanding their "buffer zone", which in reality is Israel seizing recognized land from Lebanon.

In my opinion America MUST divest itself from this aggressor, immoral, genocide committing, criminal nation. Only then could Israel reverse course to the liberal democracy they need to be.