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... The most underappreciated story this election year is happening everywhere and yet is completely overshadowed by the race for the White House.
No matter who wins the presidency, the nation is going in two different directions. That's because more states have fallen under one-party control -- either Republican or Democrat -- than at any time in modern US history. The shifting dynamic is suppressing competition in elections, discouraging voter engagement and, in too many places, enabling the party in power to ignore perspectives outside of their base. In short, political choice is vanishing.
In 40 "trifecta" states -- where both chambers of the legislature and governor's office are controlled by a single party -- compromise has lost its luster, and large groups of voters are being sidelined with little influence over the decisions that affect their lives.1
The result is representative democracy's steady erosion, in which geography determines destiny for 82% of the American population " 41% live under Democratic control in 17 states and 41% under Republicans in 23 states. This divide is clear in a trove of state-level data on elections and legislation that reveals a nation not only splitting along party lines but also over the importance of democratic representation itself.
The impact on policy has been asymmetrical. For the past quarter-century, the public has become more progressive on many social issues, according to Gallup. Blue trifecta states have moved with it, namely on abortion, gender identity, climate change, guns, immigration and voting rights. Red trifectas, meanwhile, have hewed to their base and to policies that receive majority support only half the time -- rejecting Medicaid expansion, relaxing gun laws and cutting unemployment insurance.
To many voters in the 23 Republican trifecta states, representative government is not representing them. ...