Thursday, November 07, 2024

Rafael Graduates to Major Hurricane

Rafael is forecast to cross western Cuba as a major hurricane this afternoon and evening. A hurricane warning is in effect for this region, where a life-threatening storm surge, damaging hurricane-force winds, and destructive waves are expected.

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Comments

Yeah, this was a surprise.

Yet another example of a hurricane growing in strength much more quickly than expected.


#1 | Posted by LampLighter at 2024-11-06 08:52 PM

Path plots are ambiguous ...

www.tropicaltidbits.com

#2 | Posted by LampLighter at 2024-11-06 08:54 PM

...growing in strength much more quickly than expected.

I would imagine NOAA/NHS, if they still exist, will adjust "expected" for next year.

#3 | Posted by REDIAL at 2024-11-06 08:58 PM

@#3

Possibly.

The problem they face is that the growth of hurricanes is strongly dependent upon the air-water surface interaction, e.g., just how much energy is being transferred from the warm waters to the storm above?

Some background ...

We can steer these into hurricanes.' How drones by air and sea help Florida's forecasts (June 2023)
www.bradenton.com

... When it comes to forecasting the world's most powerful storms, the more data you have, the better. Now, new air and sea drones are helping NOAA hurricane scientists explore the storms from never-before-seen angles. From pinpointing potentially lifesaving details about storm conditions to answering questions previously unknown to science, the new tech is filling crucial gaps in understanding. ...

Take, for instance, the Saildrone Explorer. It's an "uncrewed surface vessel" " that's a boat-like drone. The 23 feet-long, 1,000-pound, bright orange drone is solar- and hydro-powered, and it's remotely controlled via satellite by teams around the world. It continuously collects info about its surroundings to provide data points including salinity, water temperature and turbulence, as well as nearly real-time visuals from the ocean's surface.

Since NOAA began a partnership with the California-based company Saildrone in 2014, the autonomous aquatic data collector has become a major boon for hurricane scientists. "The most valuable thing is we can steer these into hurricanes," said NOAA oceanographer Greg Foltz. "That's unique." The data that the Saildrone collects from inside the storm's fury, where waves can reach 90 feet tall and winds climb to 125 mph, is fed directly into hurricane models.

"We hope ultimately to improve the models and improve hurricane intensity prediction," Foltz said. One particular concern is rapid intensification, or when hurricane winds increase by 35 mph or more in a 24-hour period. It's a pattern that is thought to be increasing with climate change, and more accurate predictions could help forecasters warn communities sooner....


#4 | Posted by LampLighter at 2024-11-06 09:16 PM

watch for the usual late season move to the east...eventually... and weaken as it does.

#5 | Posted by shrimptacodan at 2024-11-07 09:44 AM

watch for the usual late season move to the east.

Track guidance is showing it going west and then southwest.

#6 | Posted by REDIAL at 2024-11-07 12:26 PM

Hmmmmmmm.

is that the only track shown ?

it's extremely rare for storm to enter gulf and keep going west....like 7 in the past

100 years or longer...

#7 | Posted by shrimptacodan at 2024-11-07 12:35 PM

ah .... I see it now....

but the system over Texas and conditions will weaken it...

--:Rafael is forecast to move away from western Cuba on Thursday and weaken over the central Gulf of Mexico. "

#8 | Posted by shrimptacodan at 2024-11-07 12:37 PM

is that the only track shown ?

Four of the models show it tracking southwest, two show it turning to the north. Predicting it remaining at hurricane strength for a couple of more days.

#9 | Posted by REDIAL at 2024-11-07 12:39 PM

yeah.....I must have been busy when this came through.

probably busy relishing results from the 5th...

:) :)

"Hurricane Rafael Path Update, Tracker as Storm Radically Changes Direction"

www.newsweek.com

#10 | Posted by shrimptacodan at 2024-11-07 12:45 PM

latest.

upper level steering currents and wind shear helping to weaken rafael.

no overall driving system.

should sit in gulf for next 4 days and fizzle out.

#11 | Posted by shrimptacodan at 2024-11-07 02:57 PM

should sit in gulf for next 4 days and fizzle out.

Pretty much what they were predicting last week.

#12 | Posted by REDIAL at 2024-11-07 03:07 PM

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