" As the cost of food and basic products increased, around 53% of Argentines now live in poverty " up from around 42% in 2023 and the highest level in 30 years. Another 15% of the population is in "extreme poverty". An extra 5.5 million Argentines became poor during Milei's first six months in office."

"The peso has strengthened considerably and is now overvalued, hurting exporters and raising the prospect of a devaluation " and with it, more inflation. Argentina's country risk index (which measures the risk of investing in a state) has fallen significantly.

But the economy is not out of the woods. Growth remains elusive " the IMF forecast a 3.5% economic contraction this year. Growth of 5.2% next year will only return per-capita GDP, a measure of individual wealth, to where it was by the time COVID lockdowns ended in 2021. Reducing inflation further won't be easy, as it has hovered around the 3% monthly level since July.

Meanwhile, Milei's 2025 budget proposal aims for a budget surplus of over 1.3% of the country's GDP, requiring further spending cuts. But calls to restart frozen public works and boost pensions and wages will inevitably grow louder next year.

And Argentina still has heavy capital controls, making it hard for investors to get money out of the country. They will think twice before investing."