Consumer Confidence surprises 'experts'

Tuesday, May 27, 2025

Consumer confidence rebounded in May after five straight months of declines as President Trump dialed back his aggressive stance on tariffs against China. The latest index reading from the Conference Board was 98 in May, well above the 85.7 seen in April and the 87.1 economists had expected. The expectations index surged off its 13-year low seen in April, reaching 72.8 May, far above the 55.4 in the month prior. This marked the largest month-over-month increase for that metric since May 2009.

Posted by ScottS at 11:44 AM | 14 COMMENTS | permalink

Color me shocked, the 'experts' wrong - AGAIN. Seeing a pattern yet?

Comments

Squats the ------- imbecile.

Go ---- off, moron.

#1 | Posted by LegallyYourDead at 2025-05-27 12:32 PM

Seeing a pattern yet?

I do:

"rebounded in May after five straight months of declines"

The pattern is consumer confidence is still lower than baseline, thanks to Trump. I don't expect this to change until there is a change in leadership. Republican Congress could take the lead on the economy, but they dare not upstage Trump, and none of their ideas are any good for the average American anyway.

As you -------- struggle with pattern recognition, I will assist you this time. The Democrats have done everything in their power along with their media lackeys to talk down the US economy and stir fear. As a result, the consumer confidence dips based on EXPECTED problems in the the future. When those expected problems don't materialize (and the never do) sanity returns and we get the biggest boost in consumer confidence since the Great Recession. And in this case, AGAIN, the experts were dead wrong. People are tuning them out and their ability to tank the markets diminishes by the day. They cooked their own credibility.

Your mom's still a whore.

"Your mom's still a whore.
#4 | Posted by LegallyYourDead"

Your pretend law school should have taught you better writing skills -------.

... well above the 85.7 seen in April and the 87.1 economists had expected. ...

Not really a surprise.

The economists are having trouble keeping up with the on-again, off-again whimsical nature of Pres Trump's tariffs.

Maybe if Pres Trump placed more of an emphasis upon certainty in what he does with tariffs, he may be more successful in the goals he has stated for those tariff.

Stated differently, is your current alias looking more at the symptom or the root problem?

he may be more successful in the goals he has stated for those tariff.

Stopping Fentanyl smuggling?

@#7 ... Stopping Fentanyl smuggling? ...

Yup, that was one of the stated goals Pres Trump had proffered.

Another was returning manufacturing to the US.

But what company's CFO, in their right mind, would want to spend years and possibly billions of dollars to try to build a supply-chain here in the US when Pres trump is likely to change his mind about the tariffs next week?

Is Apple going to bring iPhone manufacturing to the US? Samsung?

(and, an aside to the current ScottS alias ... thank-you for raising this topic, which shows the detrimental things that Pres Trump seems to be doing to the US economy.)

@#8 ... Is Apple going to bring iPhone manufacturing to the US? ...

OpEd: Trump can bluster and bluff all he wants, but iPhone manufacturing isn't coming to the US
www.theregister.com

... US President Donald Trump can huff, puff, and threaten to blow Tim Cook's house down with a 25 percent iPhone import tariff, but analysts say even that threat is unlikely to bring Apple's manufacturing home.

In response to Trump's statement last week, analysts from Morgan Stanley published a research brief on Tuesday that concluded Apple is unlikely to respond to Trump's latest tariff threat in a way that will please him.

The report, provided to The Register, concluded that the original 145 percent tariff imposed by Trump on certain imports from China last month might have made Apple budge on the matter, but since the President lost his international staredown and promised to reduce that rate, the economics no longer make sense for Cupertino.

According to the Morgan Stanley number crunchers, an iPhone manufactured in the United States would be at least 35 percent more expensive than one made overseas when accounting for tariffs on single-source components still made in China and higher US labor costs. That means a $999 iPhone would be $1,350 - at a minimum - if Apple wanted to retain a similar gross margin. ...

Apple has committed to investing $500B in the US in terms of development teams and expanded manufacturing - just not for the iPhone - YET.

www.apple.com

As to whether the iPhone will come back, it doesn't matter too much actually. Apple will do the same calculation that they always do - the cost of tariffs vs. the labor increase vs. potential for further automation.

In my calculations, the 25% tariff would be roughly the same as Apple simply paying their assembly line people ~$24/hour. This is based on a $1000 selling price, 60% gross margin (product cost is ~$400 of which labor is ~$40 - assumed 8-10 hours of Chinese labor at $4/hour wage). If they use American labor at 6x the rate (~$24/hour) the cost would be ~$525 vs. $500 with a 25% tariff - and this is before any additional automation to reduce the labor hours required.

So, seems Trump is giving Apple the chance to do the right thing and simply move manufacture here. Up to them - but, if they choose not to, they can either eat the tariff or raise prices and lose market share.

Squats is a sad little clone.

More turd polishing from the chief turd polisher.

www.ceicdata.com

tradingeconomics.com

The decline bottoming out is apparently crow-worthy news for s*&^heaps like s*&^ts.

Meanwhile, simple psychology gives an easy explanation for the behavior that is observed - initial declines due to economic disruptions and constant tariff games with rebound after the tariff games largely leave the news and the effects haven't fully taken hold.

Of course, with the "pause" in tariffs, shipment declines won't be felt (potentially) and you'll act like that means the tariffs don't increase prices because you're a disingenuous pile of s*&^.