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The following article deals with excess deaths as opposed to mortality rates and puts the risks into perspective.


Extracts from article :

"A useful way to understand risks is by comparing them with what is called a "micromort," which measures a one-in-a-million chance of dying. Note that we are considering only fatality risks here, not the risk of growing sick from coronavirus, or morbidity. The micromort allows one to easily compare the risk of dying from skydiving, for example (7 micromorts per jump), or going under general anesthesia in the United States (5 micromorts), to that of giving birth in the United States (210 micromorts). The average American endures about one micromort of risk per day, or one in a million chance of dying from nonnatural causes such as being electrocuted, dying in a car wreck or being struck by an asteroid (the list is long)."

"an individual living in New York City has experienced roughly 50 additional micromorts of risk per day because of Covid-19. That means you were roughly twice as likely to die as you would have been if you were serving in the U.S. armed forces in Afghanistan throughout 2010, a particularly deadly year."

If you actually get infected, the risks rise dramatically - obvious I would have thought, but reading some of the posts on DR, such assumptions can be dangerous.

"It's interesting that the Aussies, using the Five Eyes intelligence, is pushing hard for this. This will not end well for Xi or their parrots in the MSMDNC.

#11 | POSTED BY RIGHTOCENTER AT 2020-05-18 03:43 PM | FLAG: "

Is it Five Eyes intelligence though? Link:


Extract: "The Australian government has pushed back at US claims the coronavirus may have originated in a Wuhan lab and has determined that a "dossier" giving weight to the theory is not a Five Eyes intelligence document."

Maybe it's part of a plot to get Trump re-elected. Link:


Extract: "This is all about US presidential politics ... using an intelligence leak pushing Chinese culpability, laundered through a foreign country, turbocharged with the credibility factor of being an alleged Five Eyes product, helps the partisan political cause. And let's be clear: Murdoch is campaigning full-bore for Trump."

"If they had done their job, human to human transmission would have been confirmed when the virus was limited to China.

#1 | POSTED BY CENTERWING AT 2020-04-27 09:50 PM | FLAG: "

Perhaps you could tell me how this would have worked. When I think about the process from the beginning, it is logical that there would have been various stages when the nature of the virus was unknown. In my, admittedly layman's understanding, broadly these would be:

1) A period when the virus made the transition from animal to human but no-one was showing symptoms of illness:
2) a period when illness started to show in humans but was not diagnosed;
3) a period when the virus was recognized but human to human transmission was not thought to be an issue.

I do not know how long these periods would add up to be, but I would guess 4-6 weeks, during which time people travelled to and from China without being aware of initially the existence of the virus and later, the transmission method. How do you propose that China could prevent the spread during the period when the virus was effectively unknown?

My view is that the spread of the virus was inevitable which is why each country's response is of paramount importance in determining how the country is affected. This is why the focus on Trump's lack of response early on is legitimate - he had the power to put the country on an appropriate war footing ( to use his wording ) but he chose not to do so for personal political gain. Even today he is managing the pandemic to minimize damage to his re-election campaign, not to maximize preservation of life.

I can only hope that his experience changes him and his support for the NHS.

In 2017 Johnson and all but 1 Conservative MP, voted against removing a 1% cap on NHS wage increases and many of them cheered when the motion was successful in the Commons, continuing 10 years of austerity measures reducing the NHS's operational ability.


https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2018/01/conservatives-underfunding-nhs-made-crisis- inevitable

And to add to the irony following Johnson's Brexit success, his nurses in ICU were not English, but from New Zealand and Portugal; the latter losing his right to automatically work in the UK at the end of this year.


"Who is running the English government now?

#24 | POSTED BY LAMPLIGHTER AT 2020-04-06 04:02 PM |"

For the time being at least, Dominic Raab.

Quick overview of him:


Quote from article:

"The news that Raab would deputize for Johnson was received like "a cup of cold sick" by his cabinet rivals, according to one report." Nice.

From this article:


comes this quote:

"In a White House meeting around this time, Kushner told people that Cuomo was being an alarmist. "I have all this data about ICU capacity. I'm doing my own projections, and I've gotten a lot smarter about this. New York doesn't need all the ventilators," Kushner said, according to a person present. During an interview on Hannity on March 26, Trump said: "I don't believe you need 40,000 or 30,000 ventilators.""

It's the words " I've gotten a lot smarter about this" that got my attention. Given that he has zero medical background as far as I can tell, this could be correct, in the sense of having known absolutely nothing of relevance, he now knows something. Who knew that overseeing the response to a national pandemic which is killing Americans even as I type required so little competence?

"It originated in China and, at least according to one study, it's spread could have been contained by 95% globally had the CCP just acted responsibly.

#9 | Posted by JeffJ "

I am not sure this is correct, although I can't be certain without knowing to which "study" you refer. I suspect it is the University of Southampton study quoted recently in this Axios article:


Here is the study:


The critical difference is that the study and article do not state that "it's spread could have been contained by 95% globally" if China had acted sooner. The study makes it clear that it is referencing only the impact that earlier or later actions would have had on the spread of the virus in China - not globally. From the study:

"The research also found that if interventions in the country could have been conducted one week, two weeks, or three weeks earlier, cases could have been reduced by 66 percent, 86 percent and 95 percent respectively " significantly limiting the geographical spread of the disease. However, if NPIs were conducted one week, two weeks, or three weeks later than they were, the number of cases may have shown a 3-fold, 7-fold, or 18-fold increase, respectively."

The whole point is that once the virus is loose in a country, the speed with which authorities respond with effective containment measures dictates in large part how widespread and invasive the pandemic becomes. This is the reason why delays on Trump's part in denying the seriousness of the virus had real world consequences for the severity of the pandemic in the US.

"Because it has shown promise .. "

And is this enough for Trump to tout it as " a real chance to be one of the biggest game changers in the history of medicine?" It is, of course, if the objective is not the health of Americans but his re-election.

"Not yet, they also have no cure or therapy, by your implication it can never occur or take 18-20 months ... " -

I don't know if it will work, or if or when they will develop a cure. So to suggest, as Trump has continually done, that a cure is just around the corner is more re-election stumping.

"By whom?"


"Sure it is ... "health" includes feeding your family, doesn't it? Let me know if not ... cuz I spend alot of money on breakfast for kids."

It is a question of priorities again. Trump's priority should be to take whatever measures are required to keep deaths from covid-19 to a minimum. The economy should be managed with this as the priority, not the other way around. Are you telling me that the US cannot feed it's people under such circumstances?

#22 | POSTED BY ANDREAMACKRIS AT 2020-03-23 11:12 PM | REPLY | FLAG:

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