Three days before the election of my lifetime and Harris is going on SNL. There's her base. Drunken, drugged up Gen Z losers and low hanging fruit that vote. Meet Gaslighter, take your pick
#19 | Posted by gracieamazed

You do know that Trump was a reality TV star, right? And that he appeared several times on SNL (see above posts fo links).

Trump on SNL

Trump on SNL:

Kyle Garner
@KyleGarnerMO

My biggest takeaway from the Iowa poll: women 65+, the ones who lived in America before Roe, before women could even have their own bank accounts, know exactly what Trump and Republicans are promising. They know the stakes and they're going 2:1 for Harris.

Oh, sorry, wrong thread!

Jonathan Martin
@jmart

The Selzer story is not, necessarily, a Harris lead in Iowa

It is Harris leading by 20 points among women in a heavily white, Midwestern state.

Taniel
@Taniel

Here's what I'd say about why people care about the Selzer poll, besides the mythologizing. In final days of both 2016 & 2020, as polling had Dems in strong shape (well, esp. in 2020), it was the rare sign that something could be amiss in other polling. (1/3)

Extent to which Rust Belt white voters swung to Trump was just not understood before we saw results in 2016, tho Selzer gave a preview. (She also was first to capture IA changed in 2014.) There was this idea in 2020 that had swung back; her poll was clearest cold shower.

But of course: IT'S JUST ONE POLL! It's subject to the same margin of error, can be off in any direction, and in the moment it wasn't clear what they meant.

Same today: IT'S JUST ONE POLL.

But that gets to other thing about Selzer poll: it's clearly uninterested in herding.

BUT ALSO: 2024 polling is so different than 2016 & 2020. Pretty much no pollster shows a snap back in IA & OH. And *that* was the reality check Selzer had offered in the past. So it's just so different this year in terms of what reality check it may offer, even mythologized one.

emptywheel
@emptywheel

Male pollster: Tie game, we've adjusted for Trump
Male pollster: Tie game, we've adjusted for Trump
Male pollster: Tie game, we've adjusted for Trump
Male pollster: Tie game, we've adjusted for Trump
Ann Selzer: Have you boys heard of Dobbs?

If I am correct Seltzer's polls are highly respected
#3 | Posted by truthhurts

She has a good track record:

Matthew Klein
@MattKleinOnline
Final Selzer poll findings (and the actual result)

2022 Senate: R+12 (R+12)
2020 President: R+7 (R+8)
2020 Senate: R+4 (R+7)
2018 Governor: D+2 (R+3)
2016 President: R+7 (R+9)
2014 Senate: R+7 (R+8)
2012 President: D+5 (D+6)

About as good as any pollster gets.

If Iowa is this close I have to believe #Roevember is playing a role.

#4 | Posted by snoofy

Hey Snoofy, welcome back. Are you still in PA? If so, what's the vibe?

From their lips to God's ears:

Tim Walz in Vegas: Donald is concerned that he's not getting the women vote. He told you he would be your protector. Spoken by a guy who nearly bit it trying to get in a garbage truck. 'Open the door, Donald, open the door.'

The Seneca Project
@senecaprojectus
NEW AD Introducing "American Girl" a powerful anthem for women as we stand together to reclaim our freedoms at the ballot box!

Our voices matter. It's time to defeat Trump & MAGA extremism!

#AmericanGirl #WeWontGoBack

"Wow. You seem really upset by this."

LOL That's true.

"You've convinced yourself this was a conspiracy where the volunteer FD inserted this float themselves."

I actually don't think that. They have been sponsoring the parade for 70 years, and it sounds to me like they weren't prepared because nothing like this has ever happened before.

#24 It's a family event for them. They work together as a family to make the float and then go as a family on/behind the float. They dress up in costumes and have theme music and hand out treats along the parade route. I always look forward every year to seeing the pictures on FB.

My family in PA participates in their local Christmas parade that is held every year on the Friday after Thanksgiving. They spend a lot of time designing and then making the float. I never thought to ask them who sponsors the parade or if there is an entrance screening process. It's a Christmas parade though so maybe people are more inclined to leave politics out of it.

Like I said I also won't like it if Harris supporters had a Halloween children's parade with the roles reversed. I wouldn't want a kid in my family to go to such a parade.

Public libraries are places where the public can find information. Hopefully young children aren't going to the library unsupervised.

If MAGA voters want to have a Halloween parade for their kids that includes political floats like the one in Mt Pleasant, that's up to them as long as they bill it as such, so folks who don't want to bring their kids won't do so. Maybe call it a MAGA Halloween Children's Parade. I wouldn't like it, but I don't like a lot of things people do.

Gal_Holiday is now worried about a community-oriented children's holiday parade and what is appropriate. That is rich!
#10 | POSTED BY GRACIEAMAZED

If someone had shown up with exact same float only with Harris upfront with the Secret Service and Trump following behind in chains, I won't have thought that was appropriate for a community orianted children's parade.

"The volunteer fire department doesn't need to apologize for anything. They aren't the sensitivity police"

They did apologize though:

We, the members of the Mount Pleasant Volunteer Fire Department, want to take a moment to sincerely apologize for allowing the offensive participants to take part in the Mount Pleasant Annual Halloween Parade last evening. We do not share in the values represented by those participants, and we understand how it may have hurt or offended members of our community. We're proud to have sponsored this parade for over 70 years and its goal has always been to support our community's children. We are committed to learning from this experience and ensuring that our future events celebrate the diversity and spirit of our community in a positive way.

The annual Halloween Parade is a first come, first serve event and we have traditionally only provided safety & traffic control. We will be reviewing our planning processes to prevent a situation like this from happening again. Thank you for your understanding and support as we work to make our events more welcoming for everyone.

Mount Pleasant Volunteer Fire Department

"It's a local parade."

That's right, and some of the locals didn't think it was appropriate:

"It's a hot political season, probably not something I'd want at a children's parade," said Josh Huff, who was at the parade.

Keep talking, DonOLD. Remember, women love you!:

Aaron Rupar
@atrupar
Trump: "Can you imagine a wife not telling a husband who she's voting for? Did you ever hear anything like that? Even if you had a horrible -- if you had a bad relationship, you're gonna tell your husband."

Yes, a community oriented children's holiday parade is the perfect place to enacted this "joke".