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Wednesday, April 02, 2025

Private payrolls increased by 155,000 jobs last month after an upwardly revised 84,000 rise in February. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast private employment advancing 115,000 following a previously reported 77,000 gain in February. read more


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"While I agree China is going through tough times, I do not agree that toughness is the result of trade wars."

Supply chains do not set up or shut down over night. It is a multi-year process and China's collapse started in 2016 with Trump's trade war. When covid came, it sped up the process as literally every country adopted a 'China + 1' strategy or left the Chinese market all together. Looking at the reported Chinese exports, they are already declining in 2023 - and this was after the disruptions from covid. Chinese exports had been growing between 10-20% annually and now the number is flat to negative.

This is also seen in FDI as no company is relocating manufacturing there any longer. In 2023, FDI fell by almost 80% compared to 2022. Without FDI, there are no jobs and unemployment skyrockets - exactly what we are seeing now.

Real estate is just a symptom of this. When the real economy struggled, the Chinese government loosened credit for residential construction on infrastructure construction. This resulted in the total overbuild of real estate and the infrastructure spending built ports (not needed), airports (not needed), HSR (not needed) and highways that were supposed to make trade easier at a time that trade volume was decreasing - and now the government has to pay to maintain them.

The economic collapse is best seen in retail sales, luxury goods sales, and international travel. The Chinese tourist has all but disappeared (which really hammers Europe).

"But ... how does that affect the exports the US seems to be so reliant upon?
#33 | Posted by LampLighter"

Because the Chinese economic 'miracle' was built on manufactured export products and that sector of their economy is dying. With the huge decreases in FDI, it would take years to rebuild it even if were possible to do so.

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