"So, Pres Trump's policies have increased the amount of money that the Federal government needs to borrow."

Yes - and this is probably a new concept for your smooth brain - NOT ALL SPENDING IS THE SAME. You have productive spending and you have non-productive spending. Letting people keep more of their money (especially the smart ones as judged by their net worth) actually helps the economy by doing LONG TERM INVESTMENT. Meanwhile, dumping untold billions into programs like the Department of Education or USAID is just wasted money. Same goes with spending money on weapons for Israel and Ukraine.

"And, there may be less interest by other countries in purchasing that debt.
That results in a rising of interest rates."

It would if rates were actually set by supply & demand - which they aren't.

"So I ask once again, but differently this time, do Pres Trump policies cause the interest rate rise he seems to rail against?
#26 | Posted by LampLighter"

No - his policies - thus far - have resulted in huge real wage gains and inflation 20% below the Fed's target. If you want to argue that his policies thus far has done something other than what I just stated - then you need to bring the receipts and actually link to it. As to the future impact - that is speculative but my bet is that the base economy growth surpasses any impact due to increase money supply to fund the deficit - AND - that lowering the Fed Funds rate will actually decrease any inflationary impact by lowering our debt servicing fee by $180B - $360B over the next 12 months.

"@#23 ... Cutting rates DOES NOT SPUR ECONOMIC GROWTH. ...
It doesn't?"

No, it doesn't. At most, it is a weak correlation and shows no direct evidence of causation. As a personal example - say you want to buy a home but the interest rates are 7%. The next month, rates rates to 6.5% BUT - you receive a notice from you boss that you might be laid off. Are you buying because interest rates are lower - NO. People buy based on consumer confidence and that is not directly a causal relationship with interest rates. If it were, we would have had robust growth during QE 1, 2, 3, etc and Japan would not have had its lost decade. Further, Europe growth should be roaring now vs. stuck in ----. The whole 'cut rates to boost the economy' is one of the last widely-held false beliefs in finance and needs to ended. Just like 'stock buyback are a good thing' - they AREN'T.

"While the rate cuts may not result in an economic boom, they do seem to help the economy, making it less expensive to invest in and grow the economy."

They will help an already healthy economy because people were going to spend anyway - now, it just makes it a bit cheaper. It is the consumer confidence that matters and ACCESS TO CREDIT. The access to credit is also WAY MORE IMPORTANT than the rate itself. The house price run up from the early 2000's had NOTHING to do with the fed funds rate - it has everything to do with access to credit due to CMOs CDOs giving unqualified buyers money they otherwise would not have had regardless of the interest rate.

"Taking a different approach, why should the Fed lower interest rates?
#24 | Posted by LampLighter"

Because - as Trump and I have already told you - it is going to cost taxpayers an extra $180B - $360B this next 12 months because the Fed is going to sit with its thumb up its ass. $180B - $360B that otherwise would show up as deficit reduction.

Let me ask you this question - barring spending on interest itself - will Trump spend more or less in the next 2025 based on what the interest rate is?

The answer is NO CHANGE - he already is going to spend the money regardless of the interest rate. The only question is how much in extra interest are taxpayers going to be forced to pay because the Fed is artificially manipulating interest rates.

"The European economies do not show the strength your current alias has boasted about the current US economy."

This is where the current economists running the Fed have their heads up their asses. Cutting rates DOES NOT SPUR ECONOMIC GROWTH. Yes, it makes borrowing cheaper - but no company actually makes a decision to build a new factory over a .25% - .5% interest rate difference. They do it based on their short and long term forecast for customer demand/consumer confidence. Now, it does work the opposite though - raising rates does slow an economy. It is like a rope - pulling on it to slow an economy works, pushing on it to spur and economy does not. This is why growth was ---- despite YEARS of quantitative easing - also you can look to Japan and its lost decades despite near 0 interest rates. ----, during 2008, rates went NEGATIVE in Germany.

"So, yeah, they need to lower interest rates to help their economy. And, fwiw, I do agree the the US economy is currently stronger than the EU economies."

It will have NO EFFECT on their ---- economies. They need to do 2 things:
1.) Lower energy prices
2.) De-regulate

"So, if I may ask, is the US economy strong under Pres Trump, or is it weak?"

It is STRONG - and growing WITHOUT INFLATION - which is what the Fed is supposed to be guarding against. That inflation DOES NOT EXIST.

Again, the reason to cut interest rates is not about spurring the economy, it is about fixing the deficit by stopping the Fed from keeping interest rates high to help their banker friend - and themselves given they hold $5T in treasuries. That .5% cut is worth $25B in profit to the Fed alone.

"If it is weak, well, then, yeah, let's lower interest rates to boost it."

See above.

"Why might Pres Trump want the Fed to lower interest rates?
#20 | Posted by lamplighter"

Trump has already told you - and I told you above - it is about the US government saving $180-$360B in annual interest payments on the debt - money which is paid for NO BENEFIT OF THE TAXPAYERS and would not even be required to be paid if the Fed stopped artificially manipulating the treasury market.

"#17 | Posted by REDIAL"

The last person anyone should ask for economics advice is a ------- Canadian that just voted back into power the party that has delivered 0% GROWTH IN REAL GDP PER CAPITA IN 15 ------- YEARS. I mean, at some point even a crazy person will stop punching themselves in the balls - so, what does that say about Canadians?

"#15 | Posted by LampLighter"

I clearly outlined for you how inflation is calculated and what number is relevant. Now, do you have a question or concern about the data or do you just want to whine about how I refer to you -------- when you state your typical ------- opinions?

"That's an excellent observation."

No, it is a ------- STUPID OBSERVATION.

We have $36T in debt. That extra .5% - 1% in inflated interest rates costs US taxpayers $180B - $360B per year in interest fees paid for no reason. The Fed is guarding against inflation THAT DOES NOT EXIST - they do this to reward their banker friends because that is who matters to them.

"Pres Trump wants the interest rates to come down."

He wants to Fed to stop interfering based on their continually wrong assumptions about inflation. Europe has cut rates repeatedly while the Fed sits with its thumb up its ass. Worse, this is clearly political as the Fed cut rates under later term Biden when the inflation rates was 2x what we have now.

"But his policies cause the US to borrow more and more money."

EVERY POLITICIAN has those - and I didn't see you whining when Biden racked up $9T in debt in 4 years.

"As China and Japan may be selling US Treasuries."

They, collectively, hold ~5% of US government debt. The Fed itself holds 2x that amount itself. Japan and China selling to $0 would have ZERO impact on the US dollar.

"So, an ample supply of US debt, but less than an adequate demand to want to purchase that debt (bonds). What might be the result of that?"

Probably what we have had under Biden - the Fed simply buys it. The Fed had ~$2T on its balance sheet in 2019 - they bought more in the last 5 years than the entire holdings of Japan and China.

"Maybe, the US offering a higher guaranteed return for buying that debt?
a.k.a. higher interest rates?"

That 'marginal rate' for the current auction not only forces the US taxpayers to pay more - it inflates the price you pay on everything from cars, houses, and credit cards as those all index to the Fed rates. It is a COMPLETELY ARTIFICIAL RATE. Now, if you want to state the Fed is forbidden from buying and selling (Quantitative Easing goes away forever), I am fine with that. But, so long as the Fed is being politically motivated, their moves now are completely artificially and completely detached from Supply & Demand.

"With that in mind ... is Pres Trump, with his policies and laws passed, causing the very interest rates to rise that he says should be lower?"

The inflation rate RIGHT NOW is 1.6% for core and 0.8% for total inflation (due to energy prices decreases under Trump). Having a Fed Funds rate 3x the rate of current inflation when inflation is already 20% under their target is either incompetence or maliciously trying to destroy the US.

"Asked differently, and I'll be polite, does Pres Trump have modicum of a clue of how interest rates work?
#13 | Posted by LampLighter"

He does - you, on the other hand, clearly do not.

"You misspelled 3.05%.
#8 | Posted by jpw"

I will explain 1 time and 1 time only for you stupid -------- so pay attention.

What you are quoting is a Year-Over-Year change. The latest data is for May 2025 - the June data will not come out until July 15th.

So, when you use the number of 3.05% (which is the FORECAST), it is estimating the projected change in prices from July 2024 to July 2025. That includes the ridiculously high inflation under Biden for July 2025-Jan 2025 AND a FED forecast for which they have been repeated WRONG for June and July. THAT WAS NOT UNDER TRUMP AND DOES NOT REFLECT INFLATION TODAY.

To get what the rate of change is TODAY (or under Trump), we can take the data for most recent period and annualize it - in this case, we would use the data for the most recent Quarter: Mar'25, Apr'25, and May'25. Once the data for June is released, we can use April - June.

Pedophile massage enthusiast Alan Dershowitz claims he saw the list. I believe him on this.

"... Why it matters: The central bank is leaving interest rates paused for now, but the ultimate judgment over whether inflation is temporary or lasting will shape their willingness to cut rates in the months ahead.
#1 | Posted by LampLighter "

Typical ------- Fed - is this inflation in the room with them now? I ask as it sure the ---- is not seen in the economic data. Thus far under Trump policies, inflation is running 1.6% annualized. We are already 20% below their target rate but they sit with their thumbs up their asses worried about inflation they claimed would be seen in March, then April, then May, then June --- and they are still waiting.

"You're right, I misconstructed. My apologies.
#105 | Posted by Danforth"

------- finally learned Logic 101. Congrats!

"Gallup polling shows that Trump's approval ratings at the six-month mark in both of his terms are lower than any other modern president at the same time in their administrations, at 38% and 40% for each term respectively."

This is actually pretty funny as they link to 3 polls in the article itself:

YouGov/Economist: 42%
Morning Consult: 45%
Rasmussen: 49%

This would give an average of 45.3% - but, then it would not make headlines. So, they chose the 1 outlier poll. ----, the RCP average even has Trump at 46.3% - this is reason why NO ONE believes the lying MSM anymore. Total fake news all the time.

"" Tell me, given the construct of your 'zinger' what would I believe if indeed I had less than 2 brain cells?"
That Texan Zed is Canadian.
#100 | Posted by Danforth"

Again, you fail Logic 101. Read it again slowly and try to answer again but correctly this time.

"#99 | Posted by Danforth"

The old "I don't trust the BLS" routine? Really?

"#94 | Posted by oneironaut"

It is funny watching them squirm.

This current argument with ------- Danforth is great. About now, he has finally figured out he stepped on his own dick - AGAIN - so he will disappear from the conversion. Maybe he should have actually read the links posted by ---------- rather than simply assuming what they said. But, he is a slow learner.

"You know whats worse than watching scotts lose?
#92 | Posted by Alexandrite"

Can you link to me losing something? I ask as it has never happened here.

Case in point - on this thread and my current discussion with ------- Danforth - he is clearly wrong and I am clearly right - even the comment he claimed debunked me actually proves me to be 100% correct. Is that what you consider me losing?

"Post #59 exposed your claims as manure."
#86 | Posted by Danforth"

Oh, and what is the funniest part about all of this? Let's check the links from #59:

www.washingtonexaminer.com - this article is from Nov 2024 so totally non-responsive to my claim
www.washingtonexaminer.com - this article is from Oct 2024 so totally non-responsive to my claim
fred.stlouisfed.org - this link SHOWS THE SAME NUMBERS THAT I POSTED, check the number for Jan 2025 and June 2025. This link 100% PROVE I AM CORRECT

What are we to take from all of this?

1.) You didn't even bother to read the links
2.) You are too stupid to read the chart in the 3rd link even if you did manage to click it

So now - tell the class - did you open the links? If you did, how did you not understand that the St Louis Fed link 100% proves my point?

"Post #59 exposed your claims as manure."
#86 | Posted by Danforth"

"Thanks for admitting you have less than two brain cells.
#83 | Posted by Danforth"

Read your 'zinger' comment again REAL SLOWLY this time - then report back why it makes no sense.

This is just basic logic 101 and you seem to still blow it (just like the 2000 theater kids from your past). Tell me, given the construct of your 'zinger' what would I believe if indeed I had less than 2 brain cells?

"If you wanted to blow your credibility with one claim ... congrats!
#82 | Posted by Danforth"

Dude, you were exposed. Just deal with it. Maybe you should have not shot your mouth off about the Trump tax cuts and someone here would still believe you - but, low intelligence and hubris is a bad combination as you proved by outing yourself.

Just stick to your old story about blowing 2000 theater kids while getting your interpretive dance degree - that is something that we all can believe.

Also, I see you completely blew past the fact that I kicked your ass yet again on the topic of 2M job creations for native born Americans (something you claimed was impossible in the past).

But, feel free to keep swinging and missing!

"#76 | Posted by Alexandrite"

Sorry, but I find you to be boring Closet-Queen.

BTW, go fetch your boi Danforth so I can continue to expose him as a know-nothing ------. I notice he played his usual disappearing act after I posted above proving him to be a ------- - AGAIN. I want to see him argue how the BLS stats don't prove what they clearly prove.

"You have me confused with bill johnson.
#71 | Posted by Alexandrite"

No, I do not. You are just a closeted queen. You can lie to your wife - but, don't lie to yourself.

"#70 | Posted by Alexandrite"

It is obvious that he is Canadian by the way he posts. He doesn't need to outright say it at this point - he is a citizen of Mexico North. He may have lived in Texas for a year in the past as an economic migrant, but he is not here now and he was never a citizen.

"#67 | Posted by Alexandrite"

And?

Danforth has cosplayed as a 'tax preparer' for the same length of time and that has been proven to be a lie.

You tell your wife that you aren't gay - how many years has that been?

Telling a lie for a long time does not make it true. And ANYONE with more than 2 brain cells can tell Zed is a Canadian cosplaying as an American. He does this because if you -------- admit he is a Canadian, then his obsession with US politics becomes even more insane than just the content of his postings. Like, what kind of ------- would do this? Redial? Yep, insane. ------? Yep, insane.

"#64 | Posted by Zed"

You can't get over your TDS that America is becoming great again and Canada is falling apart. Enjoy your new Indian immigrants -------- on your streets, beaches, and in your lakes. Yes, the US has -------------- too, but it is mainly limited to San Francisco.

"#61 | Posted by Danforth"

Well, -------, you never won a debate with me in the past and this is not going to be your first.

I even told you that this was already debated so you could have checked for that before showing yourself to be an ignorant ------- - AGAIN.

Here is my post from yesterday - and yes - it is 100% true as confirmed by the BLS: