As we and others have pointed out multiple times, many of the Black and Latino voters who supported Donald Trump in 2024 are starting to regret it big time. The elections earlier this month are showing this clearly, as more data are being analyzed. Here is a comparison of election results in New Jersey showing the shift in 2024 (Biden to Trump voters) and 2025 (Trump to Mikie Sherrill voters).
YouGov runs approval polls of the president weekly. These provide lots of data for comparison purposes. One analysis, by G. Elliott Morris, is of Donald Trump's approval in Trump v.2.0 vs. Trump v1.0 among independents, the only group that could swing substantially in an election. Here are the data:
An OpEd from the Washington Examiner, as reposted by the American Enterprise Institute, or AEI...
a snip ...
Here's one measure of the partisan shift in the Trump era: In 2016, Republicans controlled 31 governorships and 68 legislative chambers. Come January, the GOP will control only 26 governorships and 57 legislative chambers (more than a 15% reduction on both scores).
In the Trump era, here's the rule: Elections in which Trump is on the ballot, the GOP does fine. In elections in which he is not, the GOP does poorly.
This isn't just about incumbent disadvantage in midterm elections. Even during former President Joe Biden's presidency, when Trump was the head of the GOP, its most recent nominee, and its next nominee, Democrats historically performed well. For instance, in 2022, they gained trifectas in four states, taking control of the legislatures in Michigan and Minnesota, and winning the governorships of Maryland and Massachusetts " all while their party controlled the White House.
Source: www.aei.org
#4 Perhaps that's true.
But the real question is ...
... Did she bring enough for everyone?