ON a Related note:
"July 16, 2024
Russia's retreat from Crimea makes a mockery of the West's escalation fears
This week marked another milestone in the Battle of the Black Sea as the Russian Navy reportedly withdrew its last remaining patrol ship from occupied Crimea.
The news was announced by Ukrainian Navy spokesperson Dmytro Pletenchuk, who signaled the historic nature of the Russian retreat with the words: "Remember this day."
The withdrawal of Russian warships from Crimea is the latest indication that against all odds, Ukraine is actually winning the war at sea."
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"The Russian reaction to mounting setbacks in the Battle of the Black Sea has also been extremely revealing, and offers valuable lessons for the future conduct of the war.
It has often been suggested that a cornered and beaten Vladimir Putin could potentially resort to the most extreme measures, including the use of nuclear weapons.
In fact, he has responded to the humiliating defeat of the Black Sea Fleet by quietly ordering his remaining warships to retreat.
This underwhelming response is all the more telling given the symbolic significance of Crimea to the Putin regime.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine first began in spring 2014 with the seizure of Crimea, which occupies an almost mystical position in Russian national folklore as the home of the country's Black Sea Fleet.
Throughout the past decade, the occupied Ukrainian peninsula has featured heavily in Kremlin propaganda trumpeting Russia's return to Great Power status, and has come to symbolize Putin's personal claim to a place in Russian history."
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The Russian Navy's readiness to retreat from its supposedly sacred home ports in Crimea has made a mockery of Moscow's so-called red lines and exposed the emptiness of Putin's nuclear threats.
Nevertheless, Kyiv's international allies remain reluctant to draw the obvious conclusions. Instead, Western support for Ukraine continues to be defined by self-defeating fears of escalation.
For almost two and a half years, Ukraine's partners have allowed themselves to be intimidated into denying Ukraine certain categories of weapons and restricting attacks inside Russia.
This is usually done while piously citing the need to prevent the current conflict from spreading any further.
Western policymakers apparently prefer to ignore the overwhelming evidence from the Battle of the Black Sea, which confirms that when confronted by resolute opposition, Putin is far more likely to back down than escalate.
The West's fear of escalation is Putin's most effective weapon. It allows him to limit the military aid reaching Kyiv, while also preventing Ukraine from striking back against Russia.
This is slowly but surely setting the stage for inevitable Russian victory in a long war of attrition.
Western leaders claim to be motivated by a desire to avoid provoking a wider war, but that is exactly what will happen if they continue to pursue misguided policies of escalation management and fail to stop Putin in Ukraine."
That appears to be a good argument for Kelly as Mamala's VP.