#3 | Posted by Effeteposer at 2022-04-28 12:04 PM
"If we don't understand what's really motivating them how can we safely escalate? It's stupid and not in our national interest at all.
Exactly, you should tell that to Peskov next time you see him, or your IRA boss, Yevgeny Prigozhin. We do understand what's really motivating Putin and why he has to lie to Russian people about "de-nazifying" and "special operations" and why he had to shut down any indeprendent, non-government news source in the country, and why first things Russian soldiers do is destroying TV and radio towers - it goes back to 1917 Soviet "October Revolution".
This is a parochial Russian conflict. Almost a cvil war.
Oh, don't try that. "Civil war" implies that Ukraine is part of Russia - it's not. It was part of Soviet Union (against its will) like many independent (hardly "non-viable" - what a despicable term you used) countries, but like many former "Soviet" countries - like Baltic states which are part of NATO now - don't want to be a part of Russia and Dugin-imagined Putin's New Russian ("Eurasian") Empire. 78% of Ukraine's population are Eastern Orthodox Christians, while only 43% of Russia's people are... yet Putin is such a good Christian?
Short-term tactical advantage is not a substitute for a long-term strategy, and tactical advantage in absence of strategy is impossible to keep, as Putin already found out. Putin is a "smash-and-grab" artist, he is out of his depth because he never encountered real opposition before. Russian people can't eat oil and gas, they have to sell it (at a large discount, making others having to sell their oil at a discount somewhere else - oil is fungible, gas / pipelines will be too if needed beyond a year or so - markets adjust) and transport it (if they can - India is already having problems getting tankers with discounted oil) - so that's how long Putin's "empire" is about to last. Being a vassal state of (?China?) or at the mercy of few discounted-oil-gas-importing countries is not an "empire" worth living in.
Meddling by outsiders started it, and meddling by outsiders will cause a catastrophic escalation If things go wrong.
True, "meddling" by outsider Putin into affairs of other countries, from installing or attempting to install puppet regimes / governments (Belarus, Georgia, Ukraine, USA, France etc.) already caused "things to go wrong", escalating the "meddling" to invasion and waging a genocidal war in Ukraine when his Ukrainian puppet was democratically thrown out and his U.S. puppet Trump couldn't stop it or overturn election through insurrection.
And stop trying to scare us with "nuclear" or "chemical" escalation - it will not end well for Russia (and Belarus, and other non-viable "Russian" satellites and enclaves) - there are several non-viable cities not too far from Moscow and Sochi (where Stalin's and Putin's dachas were - notice the past tense?) to make examples of - like Hiroshima before Nagasaki before... "things go terribly wrong." At best, Vlad's name will be written (in Chinese?) as the "Failed Last Tyrant." Putin maybe out of mind but but "his generals" are not and they already know the end game - all they need now is to negotiate not being on trial for Putin's war crimes.
Don't worry, your St Petersburg (according to your VPN location, you're not too far from Nevsky Prospect) should be left alone, as a city-monument to Peter the Great - last Great ruler of Russia, unlike Mad Ivan, Alexander or Vlad - would be a shame if something happened to it.
So when Tzar Vlad The-First-And-Last is gone, leaving Russia in poverty, with broken credit, military, industries and relationships, having to pay reparations to to restore Ukraine for generation, you will be here posting about "cooperation" and "glasnost" and "perestroika" ("rebuilding")...