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** BLS explains: "The CPI does not necessarily measure your own experience with price change... A national average reflects millions of individual price experiences; it seldom mirrors a particular consumer's experience."

"Average" is a key word here, but it's actually even worse: some of the components are "weighted" higher, some lower; others, like consumer's credit interest payments, some property-related expenses, some insurance costs are not included, use of subjective "hedonic regression" etc.

Also, depending what "weighted basket" of goods and services you are in, your "personal inflation" ("particular consumer experience") may be higher than headline or core CPI.

Neither BLS CPI nor Fed's PCE are perfect at measuring even "average" inflation:
The pricing challenges aren't unique to the CPI. ... The personal consumption expenditures price index, produced by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, also has some quirks when it comes to measuring certain expenses like health care.

So neither the CPI or CPE are ideal, one-univariate-fits-all indices, and both understate inflation. That's one reason why Social Security checks (and/or other "fixed income") even "adjusted for inflation" usually fail to keep up with the actual COL.

*** www.pbs.org - Driving retail spending, wealthier Americans are powering US economy - PBS/AP, Oct 18, 2024

www.bloomberg.com - The Mighty American Consumer Is Powered by Higher Earners - Oct 15, 2024
|------- By many measures, Americans appear to be tapped out: Credit-card delinquency rates are on the rise, millions are falling behind on student-loan payments and the explosion of "buy now, pay later" apps suggests shoppers are racking up billions of dollars in "phantom debt" that can't easily be tracked by economists.

A new study by the Federal Reserve puts data behind that K-shaped spending theory, showing that the recent strength in spending has been driven by middle- and high-income families.

Among key findings:
* - In the two years before Covid, growth in average retail spending was roughly the same across income brackets
* - In the two years following the pandemic, low-income families boosted consumption much faster, helped by government stimulus programs
* - In the past two years, higher-earning households were the main drivers. The Fed researchers speculate it may be because they are enjoying a wealth effect from soaring stocks and home values as well as higher interest and investment income

Wells Fargo economists argued in a recent note that lower rates may not provide much lift for consumer spending. At the macro level, they say, the lost interest income will likely be larger than the savings from households who will be spending less to finance their debt.
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#2 | Posted by redlightrobot at 2024-10-30 03:24 PM
So, by lumping "consumer spending" with "private investment" you have the GDP.

No.

Those two contributors should be quantified independently, because dividend re-investments and stock buybacks should not be considered "consumer spending".

What?? No, they are just two components of the official and most popular formula for the GDP and GNP. "Consumer spending" recently accounted for about 70% of GDP.

I'm probably misunderstanding this entire scenario.

Yes.

#5 | Posted by AMERICANUNITY at 2024-10-31 03:12 PM
The Consumer Price Index has dropped to a 2.1% inflation rate.

Headline CPI ** did, purely on the [relative] weakness of oil price, thanks to IAF and USAF finally dealing with Houthis (Iranian proxy in Yemen) and their campaign to block Red Sea shipping routes, and after Israel announced that they will not hit Iranian oil industry (in the first strike) and US oil industry (Exxon, Chevron et al) and OPEC dialed up the oil output.

Core CPI (excludes "volatile" food and energy prices) for September was higher again and August revised up.

And Sept. PCE (Fed's preferred inflation measure) core and headline was up again, and also has been rising, which is why T-bonds yields are rising, despite further weakness in the economy - (Sept. Chicago PMI plunged to 41.6 from already low 46.6, expected 47.5) and retail inventories have increased while wholesalers and distributors are reduced, i.e., slowing sale-through. September personal spending (0.5% vs exp. 0.4%) continues to outpace personal income (0.3% vs exp. 0.4%), with consumer debt, not even counting BNPL, increasing (meaning more people are having hard time making ends meet) and more of upper and middle class consumers are "trading down" - i.e., are on downward "hedonic adaptation/treadmill." ***

The U.S. economy is the envy of the world. We've come out of the pandemic in better shape than any developed country in the world.

Almost always is, in "good" and "bad" times, regardless of US president - has to do with the US more resilient, entrepreneurial and technologically empowered productive private sector (while productivity has actually declined recently in both US and, even more so, in EU-10) and being comparatively "undertaxed" (if you don't count state and local income and sales taxes) than other "developed" / European / EU-10 economies.
ecipe.org - For decades, the EU's productivity growth has consistently lagged the US

BTW, our stock market is up 51% compared to the 44% Trump loved to brag about. Our unemployment rate is much less than Europe's. Thank you President Biden.

US Presidents have very little influence on the stock market.

BTW, outside of Trillions of dollars in deficit spending ($1.9T in fiscal 2024 alone) and consequent inflation, what did President Biden (and Trump before him, not to mention Congress critters) do to "generate" this kind of return?

Or is this just an "AI-mania Bubble" that started when OpenAI introduced ChatGPT in November 2022, after the "Everything Bubble" (from COVID "stimulus" spending and Fed's QE) deflated back to below 2020 level?

"Magnificent Seven" are all involved or invested in "AI" and are currently valued at 33% of "cap-weighted" S&P 500 - that's about what the ratio of XLF (financial sector) to SPX cap was before GFC and 2007-2008 meltdown - that should be a reason to be concerned, not attribute to some "magical" presidential powers.
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U.S. military forces, including U.S. Air Force B-2 bombers, conducted precision strikes against five hardened underground weapons storage locations in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen.

About time, after two Israeli strikes took out the fuel tankers and surface launchers, and immobilized the ports where Houthis were receiving Iranian munitions used to attack Red Sea shipping routes and US and UK Navy ships, swatting Houthis' missiles and drones with expensive AA missiles.

Adapted from Iran's motto "Death to Israel, Death to America", Houthis official slogan makes their priorities more clear: "Allah is the Greatest, Death to America, Death to Israel, A Curse Upon the Jews, Victory to Islam" since Hussein al-Houthi used it in 2000.

Nice opportunity for a first real practice run for B-2s, like THAAD installation in Israel, and a [not so] subtle message to Iran that the "hardened underground" nuclear facilities they constructed to prevent Israel from demolishing the sites - since Israel has no "heavy" bombers in their arsenal, only F-15i, F-16i and F-35i planes - may not be as "impenetrable" as they tout. It's safe to assume that IAF will eliminate S-300s defending Iran's nuclear sites in their first round of response.

Red Sea/Gulf of Aden shipping insurance and crude prices have already come down significantly as a result of these strikes. Also helps Israel by reducing potential "incoming" from Yemen, in addition to sharp reduction of rockets and drones from Hamas, and still working on Hezbollah, before turning their attention to the "Octopus" Iran.
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That's so much less than $42Billion spent on Biden Harris broadband initiative which hasn't connected anyone.

It didn't connect anyone because it was not spent - it was part of bipartisan $1T 2021 Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, and as is typical of government programs, "designed" to be allocated to different states and had enough red tape to be "shovel-ready" in 2025-2026, and nobody applied for grants because no one wanted to deal with managing added litany of "woke" federal mandates and states' requirements, and higher expenses to hire "local workforce (read 'union') at prevailing wages and benefits" which they couldn't realistically afford or recoup.

www.politico.com - How politics hung up a $42B Biden internet buildout

Scraping the cheap Starlink deal, for a 10X cost solution. You people are idiots.

No one "scraped" the nonexistent "deal" - maybe because "Starlink deal" is not cheap at all, and only serves to enrich Elon, while "giving" people inferior "broadband" speeds at 3x-4x the price of much faster reliable fiber/fixed-wireless broadband they already have.

SpaceX CEO Elon Musk approvingly reposted an X user who claimed that "for $42 billion they could have bought Starlink dishes for 140 million people."

How shamelessly nice of Elon to think that the government should enrich him by buying his terminals for 140 million households (which is more than actual households in the US, most of whom don't need it in the first place, since about 90% of population already have, and 95% are expected to have by the mid-2025, real broadband at same or much higher d/u speeds than Starlink), so he could start charging them 3x-4x for his "broadband" service! Look what he's done with eX-Twitter for "only" $44B.

Starlink or similar services are good in emergencies or where only satellite service will do, it's not competitive with HS broadband.

$400 why isn't the government giving it to the people?

Many non-profits have shipped more than 10k terminals and FEMA / local governments are giving them "for free" in affected areas, until internet service is restored.

Actually there was a program, called ACP, that was doing just that, at much cheaper cost and with very little management and bureaucratic waste. It temporarily provided $360/yr subsidy per low-income subscriber, which would help ISPs build out the broadband and/or provide more competitive services in more [rural] areas, where they now may have to buy expensive satellite or cell service.

This year the Republicans in Congress, at Trump's behest, "cancelled" / wouldn't extend ACP at a fraction of the cost of $42B they voted to allocate Broadband Equity Access and Deployment (BEAD) in first place in 2021

www.forbes.com - this article is from last year, before ACP was "cancelled" in Congress.

"Tell me you don't understand technology financing without telling me you don't understand technology financing."
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#10 | Posted by commnotes at 2024-10-12 01:35 PM
???
What about the ones financed by UK and US?

"There are more than 20,000 Starlink terminals in Ukraine, many of them used by the military. While some of them were donated by SpaceX, many are paid for by the US government, western allies or through crowdfunding"
archive.is

Why was the mainstream media lying about this all along, or is the guy in Poland lying just now?

Your link to supposed FT [archived] article doesn't show the article, but anyway, it's most likely very outdated (early 2022-2023), and you haven't been paying attention.

No one, except Musk, has been lying about this. First he was boasting about its use by Ukraine, trying to promote Starlink, so he claimed that he donated them; then he started complaining about "high costs" and required a payment and sent the bill to Pentagon; he also turned off Ukraine's service in Crimea region on a whim, after talking to "brother Putin" and deciding that he didn't "donate" them for "military/war purposes"... while Russians not only have been illegally using sanctioned terminals and services with impunity (they cannot be sold or activated in Russia due to crude "geofencing"), they also listened in and/or are jamming Ukrainian Starlink unencrypted services, making them a lot less effective.

www.washingtonpost.com - Russia's illicit Starlink terminals help power its advance in Ukraine - October 12, 2024

|------- Russian forces have become deadlier and more agile with the help of illicit Starlink terminals, allowing them to use satellite internet to enhance coordination during assaults... despite U.S. efforts to stop the flow of technology.

The issue has renewed Ukrainian frustrations over Elon Musk, SpaceX's mercurial chief executive. Some of the soldiers criticized Musk by name, saying his company has not done enough to crack down on illicit use and casting doubt on his desire to fix the problem, saying he appears to have favorable views toward Russia.

SpaceX provided free Starlink connection to Ukraine after Russia's full-scale invasion in 2022 but then threatened to cut service following online spats with diplomats, citing the high costs. Musk relented under public pressure and then sent the bill to the Pentagon... Musk was also widely condemned in Ukraine following reports he denied Kyiv's request to allow Starlink access for sea drones in a planned 2022 attack on Russia's Black Sea Fleet. ...
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Starlink terminals and service in Ukraine have been [re-]purchased and paid for by Poland, as part of contribution to NATO's support for Ukraine.

Independently of this, UK and US are buying and using Starlink unencrypted commercial internet (e.g., Coast Guard, FEMA) and DoD is expecting to increase purchases to expand its PLEO satellite constellations as part of "Starshield" and Satcom 2029 programmes.

DoD currently buys Starlink's commercial internet service but by 2029 it plans to acquire more than 100 SpaceX encrypted and "hardened" for military use "Starshield" satellites that would be owned, controlled and operated by US government, as well as Satcom products and services from about 20 other vendors.

It's hard to keep track of who is lying now and who lied before.

Exactly, so don't rush to accuse people of lying, especially when you yourself are working off of very limited information and knowledge about the subject.
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#11 | Posted by tonyroma at 2024-10-06 02:49 PM
You still peddling the same lies I destroyed 2 days ago?
Why do you people have to lie incessantly when the truth is readily available?

He is not lying - you guys are talking past each other about different parts of the same BLS report that your link points to.

You simply quoted "headline" numbers from the BLS summary on first page, mostly from the "seasonably adjusted" Establishment Survey - which is what BLS usually tells us.

He quoted a deeper dive into some of both "adjusted" and "unadjusted" numbers in both the Establishment and Household Surveys, shown much further in the report in A-# and B-# tables and also analysis of those numbers - some simple add/subtract math.

As you know, BLS (and other agencies) often revise their previous numbers, for a few months afterwards and then annually - you might remember, recently BLS revised / "adjusted" last year jobs numbers down by whopping 818K (www.nytimes.com - U.S. Added 818,000 Fewer Jobs Than Reported Earlier) - or about 28 percent!

This "unadjusted" report clearly shows huge growth in the number of government jobs (well beyond seasonal and expected "return to school" teachers and admins) and not just for September, but all year long, without which the "official" U-3 unemployment number (as flawed as it is) would be up, to 4.5% instead of slightly down to 4.1%.

Even in this report there was an adjustment for July, up by +55,000, from +89,000 to +144,000 - that's almost 62% "error" in estimates from 2 months earlier. Let's just say that current numbers will be revised well down after elections, and generally, all initial estimates from BLS are to be taken with a grain (or two) of salt.

#1 | Posted by Hans at 2024-10-05 12:01 PM
... We tend to think that anyone who says, "Sure, the September report was great, but the October one wasn't, so I just can't vote for Kamala Harris" was never going to vote for her anyhow.

That is very presumptuous - that those who already made up their mind for whom to vote, one way or the other, are going to look at the September (and, if available, October) jobs report, and are going to change their mind - hardly anyone ever makes their voting decisions based on the final, if any at all, jobs reports, and not on their own situation or prospects, i.e. how they feel. And the way many feel now points to 59% - 3 quintiles -experiencing a "vibe-cession":

www.cnbc.com - 59% of Americans wrongly think the U.S. is in a recession - CNBC, Aug 12, 2024
3 out of 5 people feel "their economy" is in recession - a so-called "vibe-cession."
"While the economy is strong on paper, a lot of families aren't feeling the benefits..."

Do you think they are going to look at BLS jobs report and feel better / worse based on that? Why do you think the race against someone like Trump still is/feels so tight? There is a saying that "Recession is when your neighbor is laid off. Depression is when you are laid off."

Fortunately, Kamala moved on from "Bidenomics" but the polls are far from encouraging, especially considering large contingent of "shy" Trump voters who either don't respond to polls or outright lie.
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#11 | Posted by tonyroma at 2024-10-06 02:49 PM
You still peddling the same lies I destroyed 2 days ago?
Why do you people have to lie incessantly when the truth is readily available?

He is not lying - you guys are talking past each other about different parts of the same BLS report that your link points to.

You simply quoted "headline" numbers from the BLS summary on first page, mostly from the "seasonably adjusted" Establishment Survey - which is what BLS usually tells us.

He quoted a deeper dive into some of both "adjusted" and "unadjusted" numbers in both the Establishment and Household Surveys, shown much further in the report in A-# and B-# tables and also analysis of those numbers - some simple add/subtract math.

As you know, BLS (and other agencies) often revise their previous numbers, for a few months afterwards and then annually - you might remember, recently BLS revised / "adjusted" last year jobs numbers down by whopping 818K (www.nytimes.com - U.S. Added 818,000 Fewer Jobs Than Reported Earlier) - or about 28 percent!

This "unadjusted" report clearly shows huge growth in the number of government jobs (well beyond seasonal and expected "return to school" teachers and admins) and not just for September, but all year long, without which the "official" U-3 unemployment number (as flawed as it is) would be up, to 4.5% instead of slightly down to 4.1%.

Even in this report there was an adjustment for July, up by +55,000, from +89,000 to +144,000 - that's almost 62% "error" in estimates from 2 months earlier. Let's just say that current numbers will be revised well down after elections, and generally, all initial estimates from BLS are to be taken with a grain (or two) of salt.

#1 | Posted by Hans at 2024-10-05 12:01 PM
... We tend to think that anyone who says, "Sure, the September report was great, but the October one wasn't, so I just can't vote for Kamala Harris" was never going to vote for her anyhow.

That is very presumptuous - that those who already made up their mind for whom to vote, one way or the other, are going to look at the September (and, if available, October) jobs report, and are going to change their mind - hardly anyone ever makes their voting decisions based on the final, if any at all, jobs reports, and not on their own situation or prospects, i.e. how they feel. And the way many feel now points to 59% - 3 quintiles -experiencing a "vibe-cession":

www.cnbc.com - 59% of Americans wrongly think the U.S. is in a recession - CNBC, Aug 12, 2024
3 out of 5 people feel "their economy" is in recession - a so-called "vibe-cession."
"While the economy is strong on paper, a lot of families aren't feeling the benefits..."

Do you think they are going to look at BLS jobs report and feel better / worse based on that? Why do you think the race against someone like Trump still is/feels so tight? There is a saying that "Recession is when your neighbor is laid off. Depression is when you are laid off."

Fortunately, Kamala moved on from "Bidenomics" but the polls are far from encouraging, especially considering large contingent of "shy" Trump voters who either don't respond to polls or outright lie.
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#25 | Posted by BellRinger at 2024-10-01 03:02 PM
Iran hacked Trump's campaign and sent the info to the DNC and you are going to bring up Russia?

You do understand that 1) these are not mutually exclusive, and 2) the "good Christian" Vladimir Putin is in cahoots with "good Muslim" Ayatollah Khamenei of Islamic Republic of Iran, so the end goals are the same?

Coincidentally (?), Trump recently said that he would "have to make a deal with Iran" and Trump is also a "good friend" of "good communist" Kim Jong Un and "good de facto dictator" Orban of Hungary - all friends of Putin.

* Orban aide said Hungary would have surrendered to Russian invasion and called Ukraine's decision to defend itself militarily "irresponsible."
* Six North Korean officers were killed and 3 more injured on the Russian frontline near the Donetsk region.

www.npr.org - U.S. accuses Russia of sophisticated influence campaigns against U.S. voters - NPR, Sept 4, 2024

www.washingtonpost.com - Russia-paid influencers, trolls step up efforts to influence U.S. election - WaPo, October 1, 2024

www.msn.com - Microsoft Thwarts Russian 'Spear Phishing' Campaign Targeting 2024 Election - October 4, 2024

|------- "Microsoft and the U.S. Department of Justice (DoJ) on Thursday announced the seizure of 107 internet domains used by state-sponsored threat actors with ties to Russia to facilitate computer fraud and abuse in the country. ... Active since at least 2012, the Callisto Group [aka Star Blizzard, COLDRIVER] is ... an operational unit within Center 18 of the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB)."
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www.cybercom.mil - Russian Disinformation Campaign "DoppelGnger" Unmasked - US Cyber Command, Sept 3, 2024

|------- The European Union's Disinformation Lab (EU DisinfoLab) has recently exposed a sophisticated Russian influence campaign known as "DoppelGnger."

Operating since at least May 2022 ... DoppelGnger promotes pro-Russian narratives and infiltrates Europe's media landscape by disseminating disinformation through a network of cloned websites, fake articles, and social media manipulation.

This campaign employs generative AI to create disinformation content and purchased domain names similar to legitimate media to mimic news outlets, governments, and think tanks, luring unsuspecting readers into a maze of falsehoods. At least 17 media providers ... have been exploited to spread DoppelGnger's pro-Russian narratives. ...

The disinformation campaign uses social media bots to spread its pro-Russian narratives with a multi-stage website obfuscation to mask links between the bots and inauthentic sources. ...

Videos, articles, and polls designed to manipulate public opinion are disseminated seamlessly, blurring the lines between fact and fiction.

DoppelGnger's pro-Russian narratives include:
* Depicting Ukraine Negatively: The campaign portrays Ukraine as a failed, corrupt, and Nazi state.
* Promoting Kremlin Narratives: It denies the Bucha massacre and spreads Kremlin-approved narratives on the Ukraine war.
* Fearmongering Across Europe: Germans, Italians, French, Latvians, and British citizens are targeted, warned that sanctions against Russia will ruin their lives.
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So much for "Not Russia, Russia, Russia!"
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#16 | Posted by NerfHerder at 2024-09-29 11:07 PM
Good Americans and westerners don't start off hating Israel.

Good Germans in 1920s-30s didn't start off hating Jews. Palestinian children didn't start off hating Jews, Israelis, Israel. They "learned" from someone | somewhere | somehow.

It's not until we start learning [from someone|somewhere|somehow] and paying attention ... that this view begins to change.

And we learn [from someone|somewhere|somehow] that this evil ...

We suddenly [??] realize that Israelis have been indoctrinated from birth to view the non-Jewish indigenous populations of the region as less than human ... despite having more than 21% of Arab Israeli citizens, as well as more than 5% of Druze, Bedouins and other minorities and being the only multicultural, multi-religion, multi-party democratic society, with liberal western norms, who have no problems living next to / side-by-side with their neighboring Arab countries after they gave up on destroying Israel in several major and minor wars and sought peace. In fact, their economies greatly benefited from trade with more prosperous Israel, which has neither oil nor abundance of natural resources.

Palestinian leaderships, OTOH, refused peace and establishment of Palestinian state every time it has been offered to them, and broke every "permanent cease-fire" agreement with Israel.

But who needs the facts, knowledge or reasoning? We have social media to "learn" from.

We learn that this is what we are seeing when we [or someone we don't know] translate [by someone we don't know] comments Israelis [or someone we don't know] make in Hebrew on social media [or somewhere] ...

The social media "information" is a great resource... for being indoctrinated and radicalized.

And we gradually [!!] come to understand ... ... ... all the reasons we now hate Israel and Jews... voil'a! You have graduated from the University of Indoctrination and Radicalization!

Thank you. You've just described a classic process of indoctrination and radicalization. That's how the young Palestinians and poor-critical-thinking adults anywhere, especially exposed to the "right information" on social media, get radicalized and keep looking and "paying attention" for all kinds of one-sided grievances (real, made up or fake), instead of learning well-known facts and looking at real causes of Palestinians suffering - they are true victims of their own leaderships, who portray them as victims of Israel / Zionists / Jews. That gets them both sympathy and billions in "humanitarian aid" for "refugees" which they use for their stated goal of genocide - Jews and Israel.

Their "leaderships" (depending on which "militia" / sect / gang one belongs to) always aligned themselves with forces or powers antithetic and hostile to Jews and/or Israel: German Nazis before and during WW2, then with the other Arab countries and Soviet Union/Russia, and later, after dissolution of USSR, with Islamic Republic of Iran to wage the Jihad / Holy Struggle - Hitler's "Mein Kampf" also translates into "My Struggle."

Their view of Israel is the same as Putin's view of Ukraine - it's "our land and always has been" and Ukrainians / Israelis are the "occupiers / colonizers" - thoroughly debunked, but alive and well in propaganda and social media.

I am not trying to change your mind, but the [anti-Israel] "process" of indoctrination and radicalization that you described here is a classic "teachable moment" / "case study" for others, so... thanks!

"We learn from history that we learn nothing from history"
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#8 | Posted by Brennnn at 2024-09-28 12:25 PM
Do they think they can kill there way to where there is no hate?

There is no place on Earth "where there is no hate" - there is either too much money in hate, or it has been taught and ingrained since childhood by various religions, [death] cults, ideologies, supremacists etc.

But if you destroy enough of those who teach and practice hate, you could achieve peace, even if it's "cold," while society de-programs and teaches generations of others to become "normal" - it's been done numerous times, including Israel and its neighbors.

It may not get you "love thy neighbor" vibe from them, but it should stop them from trying to kill you and you having to kill them first... and get you [and them] peace.

It's a lot easier to teach and use hate where life - their own or others - has no or little value, except in the service of hate or in return for a monetary reward.

en.wikipedia.org - Palestinian Authority Martyrs Fund
Purpose: Financial support to the families of Palestinians killed, injured, or imprisoned for violence against Israel

jcpa.org - Incentivizing Terrorism:
Palestinian Authority Allocations to Terrorists and their Families
- 2017

|------- The Palestinian Authority's legislation and allocations of monthly salaries and benefits rewarding imprisoned and released terrorists, and the families of "Martyrs," amount to $300 million annually. This financial reward clearly demonstrates the PA's institutional commitment to sponsoring terror against Israel.

When I learned of this in November 2015... I proceeded to raise the issue with organized American Jewish community leaders and Israeli policymakers, and was told "everybody knows."

According to Palestinian leaders, achieving their national goal of establishing their state over all of Palestine commits them to struggling against Zionism in a wide variety of ways, including terrorism. Therefore, terrorists.. are heroes fighting for the national and religious cause, and... should be glorified and rewarded...

The salary payments to terrorists from all Palestinian terror organizations, including Hamas as well as those who carried out terror attacks after the Oslo agreements ... are made according to Palestinian Authority legislation ...

Legally, the payments of salaries to terrorists stand in sharp contrast to the Oslo agreements...

... Ali asks his mother what would happen if he killed a Jew and went to an Israeli prison. She tells him he'd be paid thousands of dollars each month by the Palestinian Authority. In fact, she tells him, the more Jews he would kill, the more money he'd get. Oh, and when he gets out of prison, Ali would be guaranteed a job with the Palestinian Authority. ... Hundreds of thousands of Palestinian children ... are indoctrinated with hate... Imagine what it takes for a young boy or girl to break free out of this culture of hate. ... How can any of us expect young Palestinians to support peace when their leaders poison their minds against peace?

While Israeli leaders condemn terrorists, all terrorists, Arabs and Jews alike, Palestinian leaders celebrate terrorists. While Israel jails the handful of Jewish terrorists among us, the Palestinians pay thousands of terrorists among them. ...
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Talking about value of life - IDF had opportunity to eliminate Hamas head Yahya Sinwar recently, but didn't take it for fear of harming hostages.
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Sen. Rand Paul (R"Ky.) asked the Senate on Wednesday to balance the federal budget by trimming a few pennies from every dollar that the government spends.

Not a fan of Rand Paul (or his father Ron Paul) but he is actually correct here, while most people, and especially politicians, miss the most important point - the deficits (as they are, by definition) have to do only with the spending being higher than revenues (which can be anticipated). Tinkering with tax code trying to boost revenue, in and of itself, without substantially raising inflation, and therefore expenses, simply doesn't work.

Politicians (aka "influencers") are putting undue emphasis on taxes / revenues, and convinced themselves and most of their "followers" that if only we would tax this or tax more of that, or "tax the rich (their fair share)" or tax "big corporations" more or come up with a new / another / better tax scheme, be it additional brackets or excise taxes / sales taxes / tariffs / VATs or replacing income tax with something or other... then we would significantly reduce or stop having deficits.

The problem with this [political] "magical thinking" is that it's missing the point - many different brackets and different (higher or lower) marginal taxes resulted in about the same total median federal revenue of 17% of GDP (ATR of 16% - 18%, except very rare extreme cases of deep recessions or extremely high stock markets) - deficits are the result of excessive spending, not "inadequate" revenue / taxation and/or compliance. (see drudge.com)

The "stupid accounting tricks" of CBO (and, often, OMB) using "static / linear" annual budget estimates just ignore these facts and count higher/lower marginal tax rates as if they ever were actual increases/decreases in revenues collected (i.e., "... to 'pay' for this/that"), despite being widely off the mark in their estimate for decades.

Yep, it's actually that easy.

Conceptually and mathematically, yes; politically, no.

Both Congresscritters and Presidents love to boast of "bringing home the bacon/pork" for state/local projects and "record investment" [spending] programs and "moonshots", like "infrastructure" or "manufacturing" or "clean energy" etc., with fancy names that don't actually reflect or accomplish much of what they supposedly expected to do... and that's not even including all the "emergency" and other "off-budget" funding. "Pork" and "horse-trading" and cultivating ties with "rich and powerful" for campaign finance and post-government careers in private/private-public sector seem to be the only fun parts of their job.
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www.nbcnews.com - Harris calls Trump's tariff proposals a 'sales tax on the American people' | Harris also said if elected she would raise taxes on corporations: "It's about paying their fair share" - NBC, September 26, 2024

|------- President Joe Biden has also backed certain tariffs and done little to roll back ones Trump put into place while president, but Harris emphasized that tariffs should not be implemented across all imports...

Harris also said in the interview that corporate taxes would have to be raised to fund some of her policies tackling affordability for child care and housing. "We're going to have to raise corporate taxes. We're going to have to make sure that the biggest corporations and billionaires pay their fair share. That's just it. It's about paying their fair share." ...
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Tariffs have historically been associated with Democratic / Big Labor favorite populist "protectionist" policies - Trump stole it in 2016 campaign and got a "fair share" of union rank-and-file votes.

That's just one reason Biden did nothing to roll them back - which he could do by "stroke of the pen, law of the land" - and has been piling more, "targeted" (of course!) tariffs on top of already damaging and inflationary Trump's "sales tax," which would be, obviously, "paid by China, Mexico..." or other "villain du jour," IOW, by "somebody else" - never mind the "trickle down" affect of [sales] taxes.

|------- Trump threatens '200% tariff' if John Deere moves production to Mexico.
Trump, who has made tariffs a key of his economic policy, said at policy roundtable in Smithton, Pennsylvania:

"They've announced a few days ago that they're going to move a lot of their manufacturing business to Mexico. I'm just notifying John Deere right now: If you do that, we're putting a 200% tariff on everything that you want to sell into the United States." **
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www.nbcnews.com - The politics of tariffs are complicated. A Democrat just introduced a bill to make Trump's proposals law - - NBC, September 27, 2024

|------- Kamala Harris has slammed Trump's across-the-board tariffs as a "sales tax" on working families, but one Democrat says they would help revive U.S. manufacturing.

Former President Donald Trump calls himself a "tariff man" and says the taxes on imported goods "are the greatest thing ever invented," so it's no surprise Vice President Kamala Harris has attacked the centerpiece of the GOP nominee's economic agenda as bad policy.

What's more surprising, however, is that one House Democrat just introduced a bill to codify Trump's 10% across-the-board tariffs, revealing how the long-dormant trade policy splits both parties. ...

[Tariffs] largely fell out of favor during the late 20th century as the U.S. led a global free trade revolution.

Knocking down trade barriers slashed the cost of consumer goods and grew many economies around the world. But critics say unfettered free trade also decimated American manufacturing and the well-paid, often unionized, jobs that came with it since domestic factories were unable to compete with the lower costs of making things abroad. ...
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In economics it's called "pricing oneself out of the market" and is well understood at any level of management.

"Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results."

"If you always do what you've always done, you will always get what you've always got."
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... that it's healthy to hold on to a decades old grudge?

No, decades of grudges are un-healthy... but for Israel it's not about "grudges," it's been about survival since Day 1.

Because, as the founding leaders of Hamas declared in 1988 - and put in Hamas Covenant (charter) - it's about unabated religious Jihad / "Holy Struggle" for one side only - "Article 8: Jihad is its path, and death for the sake of Allah is the loftiest of its wishes.":

|-------
Hamas has called on all Jews and Christians to accept Islamic rule in the Middle East. "It is the duty of the followers of other religions to stop disputing the sovereignty of Islam in this region..."

Hamas also rejected any prospect of peace or coexistence with the state of Israel. "Initiatives, proposals and international conferences are all a waste of time..."

Since its creation in December 1987, Hamas has invoked militant Islam to spearhead a Sunni movement committed to destroying Israel.

The Hamas Covenant was largely crafted by Sheikh Ahmed Yassin, a quadriplegic and partially blind cleric who was the founder and spiritual leader of the militant militia in Gaza.

From the Hamas Covenant (1988, 2017):

"Palestine is the land of the Arab Palestinian people, from it they originate, to it they adhere and belong... Palestine is a land whose status has been elevated by Islam, a faith that holds it in high esteem, that breathes through it its spirit and just values and that lays the foundation for the doctrine of defending and protecting it. ...

Palestine, which extends from the River Jordan in the east to the Mediterranean in the west and from Ras Al-Naqurah in the north to Umm Al-Rashrash in the south, is an integral territorial unit. ..."

Khaled Mashal, a leader in exile, reflected the traditional Hamas hardline position in 2012: "The state will come from resistance, not negotiation. Palestine is ours from the river to the sea and from the south to the north. We will never recognize the legitimacy of the Israeli occupation, and therefore there is no legitimacy for Israel..."

{Recently "departed"} Ismail Haniyeh on Oct. 7, 2023 after Hamas attack on Israel: "We want to liberate our land, our holy sites, our Al-Aqsa mosque ... Al-Qassam Brigades made the enemy lose its balance ... with this grand and blessed incursion; with this epic presence of men who write history with their blood and their guns ... And we say to all countries, including our beloved Arab countries: you must know that this entity [Israel] ... is incapable of providing you with security or protection. All the normalization and recognition processes, all the agreements that have been signed [with Israel] can never put an end to this battle."

Hamas rejected 1993 Oslo Accords and deployed suicide bombers against Israeli civilian and military targets. In 2004, Israel assassinated Yassin in a missile strike. The Second Intifada ended in 2005, and Israel unilaterally withdrew from Gaza.

Islamic Republic of Iran has armed, trained and funded Hamas since the late 1980s, due to its stated ideology and common goal of destroying Israel. ...
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en.wikipedia.org - Since 2001, Palestinian militants have launched tens of thousands of rocket attacks on Israel from the Gaza Strip. The attacks, condemned for targeting civilians, have been described as terrorism and are defined as war crimes.

Speaking of Iran, more than a week ago IDF Special Forces conducted ground operation in Masyaf, Syria, which destroyed a covert Iranian-built underground factory making medium-range precision missiles for Hezbollah in Lebanon.
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www.americanprogress.org
equitablegrowth.org
www.ietp.org
jacobin.com

Same good old progressive orgs extolling the virtue of high taxes as panacea to "inequality" and deficits.

"Ultimately, ITEP's corporate tax work helped secure critical provisions in the Tax Reform Act of 1986 that closed corporate tax loopholes and raised the corporate tax rate to ensure companies were paying their fair share."

Their own chart disproves their "conclusions."

"The deficit also grew after Trump cut taxes..."

And "the deficit also grew after Obama increased tax rates..." - that's exactky one of those "non-causational non-correlations" that I pointed to in the article - it's all about spending and Congress + Presidents (Dems + Reps) wanting to "invest record amounts for infrastructure, manufacturing, moonshots... whatever" and spending beyond budgetary means - as I've already proved in my post that the level of marginal taxes doesn't much affect the percentage of revenue to GDP the government collects, even in the 60s - tax rates do affect the economic growth and inflation - Econ-101.

Basically, same "non-partisan" left-wing orgs, presenting exactly same anecdotes that have nothing to do with actual supply-side economics and everything to do with spending ("deficits") and "Kansas" - which was exercise not in "supply-side" but in political idiocy, because in already high-spending low-tax state bill was uniquely designed to fail and had no chance to "stimulate" the economy, as he was warned by supply-side economists at the time (it actually violated the lower band of "Laffer curve") - that was actually Bartlett's problem with Laffer - promise of "unconditional magic pill" - it stopped at ~20%.

For every mention of "Kansas" I can show you a broke high-tax high-spending high-unemployment high-poverty state - e.g.. look at California's boom-bust surplus-and-deficits economy that depends on high earners - should they increase tax rates after turning $100B in surplus into $65B deficit in a year, even absent down business cycle ?

"Along with fellow neo-Keynesian economist James Meade in 1977, Tobin proposed nominal GDP targeting as a monetary policy rule in 1980."

Paul Spahn debunked it in 1995: "Analysis has shown that the Tobin tax ... is not viable and should be laid aside for good. ... If the tax is generally applied... it will severely impair financial operations and create international liquidity problems..."

Yes, we and many other countries have just experienced high inflation and deficits of that "monetary policy rule" and Keynesian quick-fix policies - BTW, that included Trump.

"Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon" - Milton Friedman.

Many countries now have benefited from sound supply-side policies, several in South America are just starting to get on the right track after years of Keynesian government-run economies.

Please, stop recycling the same bias-confirming debunked anecdotes about "supply-side never worked" from progressive orgs that don't stand basic economic scrutiny and opinion pieces about "fair share, living wage / [always] higher minimum wages, [always] higher taxes on the rich" (which by the way, "trickle down" to lower quintiles and only exacerbate inequality, not panacea to deficits or business cycles), and read some Econ-101 facts about long-term policies that have been successfully adopted after disasters of all different Keynesianisms - you can start with the links I provided.

I wasted enough time on this, explaining - again - what should be obvious from the facts. People just want to keep getting high on their own juice.
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Drudge Retort
 

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