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I am sure their intel ops had other "plans" as well, some real, some decoys.

Maybe the leadership of intel dismissed this one because they had SOME historical experience on a much smaller scale - "Night of the Gliders" in 1987 - and didn't think it could be scaled up.

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#7 | Posted by LampLighter at 2023-12-02 03:07 AM
For starters, the "everyone" and "no one" assertions have to go. Economic forward views are not an "everyone" thing, nor is it a "no one" thing. There are differing views. I see them daily.

Your alias is in your "fifth grade grammar teacher" mode again? I thought we were done with that already last couple of times!

Unless your alias wants to post "everyone who pays attention and is supposed to or knows and understands anything about economy or [insert subject here...]" then, if your alias still doesn't understand non-literal shorthand of "everyone" and/or "no one," that's your alias' comprehension problem, which I and your alias have already discussed a couple of times.

Your alias seems to keep trying to pick a fight, especially at 3 in the morning, for some reason. I would appreciate your alias stop being annoying and not wasting my time with that nonsense again.

From what I've seen of your alias' posts, it should know better than that. Maybe I need to lower my opinion of your alias....

From what I keep seeing lately of your alias, I've been lowering my opinion daily... and I don't really care what your alias thinks about me. As I've already suggested to your alias last couple of times, if your alias has difficulties understanding my posts, which most normal people have no trouble understanding, maybe, just maybe, it would be better for your alias to dial up levels of attention and comprehension and dial down highly unwarranted and unattractive condescension and contentiousness.

Your alias may have been BMOC at one time, but it's not all that...

Yeah, you're gonna need to provide a whole lot more facts to substantiate that.

Actually, I don't - I am not posting here just for your current alias' level of comprehension. I suggest your alias try reading my post again, then your own excerpt at post #1 - particularly where it talks about government spending - and if you still don't understand, do some search in financial/economic resources, not the political which write "differing views that you see daily."

So... the Fed's goal of reducing inflation down to 2% looks to be working, according to your comment. Bringing an over-heated economy back down to 2% inflation is not without consequences.

Outside of being a non-sequitur - I didn't even mention inflation or Fed (except its economic report) - I didn't say anything different in my post, not in the facts nor in opinions I provided.

... your comment seems to criticize, but what solution does it offer ...? Criticism is easy. Solutions are more difficult.

Yet another non-sequitur. Must be your comprehension again or seeing things not in evidence.

Criticism of what? Solutions to what?

Your alias keeps looking for politics. My post doesn't nor does it provide some magical "solutions" to undefined problems. I was providing published and well known facts (apparently not well known to "everybody" and certainly not to people or aliases who are just playing "economist" and looking only for favorable political explanations, ignoring "anything / everything" else that doesn't fit that criteria) about economic numbers for past quarter and more current numbers and projections of industry as well as what they may mean for the current quarter and the year overall.

Your alias has a problem with that... why? If your alias doesn't care about these facts, it missed a great chance to stay quiet.

That prompt's me to ask, what's yer point? Or more specifically, what have ye?

Actually, that would be my question - what was your alias' point? Or more specifically, what possessed your alias to make it?
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#2 | Posted by bartimus at 2023-12-01 03:15 PM
I can't wait for the MSM and Republicans to both tell me why this news is bad for America and the Biden Administration.

#3 | Posted by Corky at 2023-12-01 03:37 PM
Their problem is that this economy is only going to improve by November.

I don't speak for "MSM and Republicans" but you are looking far back in a rear-view mirror. Everyone knew Q3 was going to be OK (inflation-adjusted and over weak '22Q3) but slowing down substantially in Q4. No one expects an official recession, but consumers still feel the inflation effects, as in late 1970s - early 1980s "stagflation" or "growflation" period.

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(Reuters) - The U.S. economy grew faster than initially thought in the third quarter as businesses built more warehouses and accumulated machinery equipment, but momentum appears to have since waned as higher borrowing costs curb hiring and spending.

Upward revision came from increases in nonresidential fixed investment, which includes structures and equipment. The category showed a rise of 1.3%, which was still sharply lower than in previous quarters.

U.S. manufacturing remained subdued in November, with factory employment declining further as hiring slowed and layoffs increased, more evidence that the economy was losing momentum after robust growth last quarter.

Spending by state and local governments was also revised higher. But growth in consumer spending was lowered to 3.6% rate.
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IOW, it's still a government (IRA / "Inflation Reduction Act") spending effect - building empty factories and plants we don't need with the money we don't have, i.e., have to borrow at very high rates. Kind of like China in last decade "investing" in building ghost cities well beyond actual demand, only here it's called "investing" in industrial infrastructure in building "green economy" well beyond actual demand.

#43 - pretty sure he said "the font sizes down to barely readable on a phone."

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#38 | Posted by REDIAL at 2023-12-01 10:45 PM

I couldn't shrink the image, sorry.
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Capitalism is great because the Central Bank never runs out of money.

Central Banks have to have surpluses or sell bonds / debt to other parties - their citizens or foreign entities - before they can "print" the money.

Socialist Venezuela and "Peronist" Argentina are the prime example of what interest they have to pay when their currency is not deemed to be risk-worthy and inflation rates are in triple or quad digits.

Econ 101.

You never took it, so your confusion is understandable, but I get that it was not a serious comment.
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#13 | Posted by tres_flechas at 2023-11-30 02:11 PM

It's still open.

All employees make a decent wage and have good benefits.

Well, duh, like many in most essential and non-essential government services, they are financed by taxes on other people.

The people there love it.

What choice do they have? Just like in every socialist country that went bust - they had no choice but to "love it" until one day / year they chose not to, and decided to significantly improve their standard of living.

The one in Baldwin, Florida is still open, too.
I know they're not smart enough to figure it out on their own, so I hope no one tells them it's socialism.

You can tell them, so they will know what real "socialism" is - smaller selection, fewer choices, higher prices and subsidies by the city government (to cover chronic losses / deficits) from taxpayers funds that were allocated to some other services that will no longer be met. OPM can buy a lot of goodwill.

"Socialism is great until you run out of other people's money."

And we are talking about an island of so-called "socialism" in a remote town with population of 1600? You really want to scale this "socialism" up to entire state, country? Most people don't.

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#30 | Posted by snoofy at 2023-12-01 02:55 PM
The shoppifters are more brazen but that doesn't mean there's more of them.

First, these incidents are not really in category of "shoplifting" - these are organized, often well-planned robberies in plain view by often "underaged youth" gangs, and with the victims and their "security" personnel often under orders from some DAs / LE, municipal governments or even management in some areas not to interfere with or even report one in progress, which is why stores in certain areas / locations (mostly "blue" cities) have been frequent targets of such attacks.

Second, funny use of statistics - there may not be "more of them" (i.e., so-called "shoplifting" incidents and/or the so-called "shoplifters") but compared to usual incidents of shoplifting small, single, relatively cheap items, these are inflicting far more significant dollar value and reputational damage to the stores, as well as an example that both the target and behavior are repeatable, since it usually has little to no consequences.

That's why, in light of non-enforcement or "boys will be boys" attitude on part of those areas DAs and politicians, some stores just close and leave a "major retail desert" in former high-traffic areas.
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Posted by lamplighter at 01:31 PM
The Ballooning Subscription Economy Reduces Consumer Choice
The number of products and services we sign up for is ballooning as almost every industry latches onto the subscription business model.

This article is at least two years late to the party - just yesterday my associate and I talked about most of subscription model going bust and dying for most, except near essential or high-end, services and products.

When COVID started, subscription services have just started to be popular because they were convenient and in many cases necessary, and have been heavily subsidized by OPM / VC money to capture and build market share. As people have become more mobile again, and as services started to charge full price, and as novelty wore off and people had house full of toys, socks, clothes, razors and blades and other stuff they no longer needed more of... and as spare "stimulus" money dried up while all other costs went up, people are cancelling non-essential, "luxury" services in droves, just like they've been "cutting the cord" on cable services.

For as long as providers of subscription services can lose money for things it would otherwise cost more to buy retail they will "live" - but SV VCs have already long weaned themselves off the just any subscription services ideas.

Some services lend themselves naturally to subscriptions, vast majority doesn't and will not be profitable.

Recent examples - Blue Apron held on for dear life before being acquired at firesale prices, several large 'ghost kitchens' went bust, Martie decided not to have subscription model to get VC funding etc. etc.

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["a lot more" ???]

Should've been ["a lot more" and for how long before landfill ???]

Ever tried to "revive" AA/AAA/car batteries to squeeze some more juice out of them? Even rechargeable batteries have a finite lifespan, with ever-lower "between charges" times.

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Startup Turns Used EV Batteries into Solar Power Storage
... B2U founder Freeman Hall. "People are skeptical, and they should be, because it's hard to do reuse of batteries. But we've got a robust data set that does prove reliability, performance, and profitability. We're at a point where we really can scale this." - Nov 27, 2023

Sounds like a perfect VC pitch for another round of funding from a never-ending supply of fool's gold.

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#3 | Posted by sitzkrieg at 2023-11-23 10:40 AM
Central planning based on Elon Musk and Tesla stock pumping junk science isn't a great idea.

Apparently not just government's central planning but some CEOs were taken in by Elon, too:

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#22 | Posted by LegallyYourDead at 2023-11-23 06:06 PM
Yet "military expert" Sitzbath thinks everything is coming up roses.

That's not what Sitzkrieg accurately described.

Russia is "throwing meat on the barbie" going all out to capture Avdiivka - just like Bakhmut before, but with the great difference that Bakhmut was mostly for PR purposes while Avdiivka is actually strategically significant for Russia as a gateway between Ukraine and Russian-held territories on the edge of the Donbas.

Avdiivka has been fought over for nearly a decade and holds political and strategic importance to Russia given its proximity (~12 miles) to Donetsk. Russian forces have now encircled Avdiivka and are close to Avdiivka's coke and chemical plant, which is also a key tactical position to the north of the town.

There are currently two asymetrical battles - one on the north and eastern fronts where Russians are attacking and grinding out yards by using "meat waves" of mobiks; and another in the south where Ukrainians continue to grind the wedge through the center of Surovikin Lines, and Crimea which is important to Putin both strategically and politically.

Given the situation in US Congress where MAGA Republicans are holding up the combined $14B aid to Ukraine (and Israel) the UKR forces are not getting essential munitions to hold the east while trying to make progress in the south.

Makes you wonder where he gets his info.

The info is very well known and understood if you followed the news from outside of this website for the last month or so.
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Related headlines and news:

Ex-Russian Commander Mounts Presidential Run Against Putin From Jail - Former FSB officer Igor "Strelkov" Girtin, imprisoned since July, was a self-appointed "Governor of Donbas region" in 2014 when he was dismissed after issuing command to shoot down Malaysian Airlines MH17 which killed 298 people.

Report: Russia prepared to steal food supplies from Ukraine months before it launched its full-scale invasion
Russia shuts down Leningrad nuclear plant reactor unit near St Petersburg after malfunction

Russia's former top air defense commander Vladimir Sviridov and his wife die mysteriously

Russia's rising artillery losses in Ukraine leave forces "totally depleted"
Russia headed for disappointment in battles along Dnieper

Russia pulls warships from Sevastopol, Crimea
Ukraine has upper hand in Black Sea as Russia warships "hide"
Ukraine's advance puts Putin's prize possession Crimea at risk

Ukraine will soon receive a single new long-range HIMARS and additional ammunition as part of $100M package

Russia's new Scalpel UAV is cheaper and more advanced than Lancet drone
Russia's new modified RBK-500 cluster bombs hit Ukraine's positions

Putin's main propagandist Vladimir Solovyov lashes out at China: "We are ahead of China in terms of military technology"
Russia and China on collision course as China rejects Russia's price hikes

Mass protests against Putin's mobilization planned in Russia

Russian oligarchs confront Putin over creeping nationalization

Russian economy about to 'hit the ice,' Putin's 'favorite oligarch' Oleg Deripashka warns - general drop in commodity prices could negatively impact the country's economy. Deripaska warned that next year's budget could be short 10"12 trillion rubles (USD$112.8 - USD$135.36 billion. He also blamed "the tyranny of state capitalism, raising prices for all its products and services, drawing subsidies and subsidies from the budget."

Putin Has Unleashed a Twisted New Wave of Antisemitism

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#4 | Posted by LampLighter at 2023-11-22 11:26 PM
Whoa, this is significant.
So Pres Putin is now willing to end the war he started, and admit that his excursion (for now, let's call it that) into Ukraine has been a tragedy?

The only significant thing here is that he is running this shell game in front of virtual G20 summit, trying to convince "world leaders" who are tired of war to pressure Ukraine to make peace by giving up territory, and before the 2024 elections, after he ensured that there are no other viable candidates, like jailing his critic Igor "Strelkov" Girkin.

He also gets to shift the blame to Ukraine for "not negotiating" what is essentially a surrender, and to accuse Washington of "escalating the conflict."

Putin at G20 on 2023-11-22: "Yes, of course, military actions are always a tragedy... And, of course, we must think about how to stop this tragedy."

Putin's always been "willing to [temporarily] end the war" provided Ukraine and the world concede and enshrine in international law that Crimea - which he is deathly afraid to lose - and his other "annexed" territories are declared belonging to Russia. In other words, a "cease-fire" where he gets to "freeze" the Russia's "new borders" on his terms.

What is really significant is that none of that has changed, and it's not even a new tactic. He is becoming very unpopular in Russia, as repressions continue and more people are dealing with sanctions and bad (not necessarily from Putin's point of view) news from the front.

I have follow-up questions, along the lines of ... why do the people of Russia apparently want this apparent self-admitted failure to govern them?

Apparently, fewer and fewer people want this war to go on, as they realize what it is really about, but just like Palestinians can't openly say anything against Hamas or "ascend to heavens" with no 'martyr compensation' to their families, they mostly keep to themselves, otherwise they go to prison for 10 years - it's the law.

Putin recently enacted additional changes to the country's election laws, including amendments that restrict independent media coverage and stringent rules on what platforms candidates can use to campaign in the upcoming election.

Poll by Russian Field group from Oct. 21 - Oct. 29, 1611 Russian citizens: 48% of respondents indicated that they believe their country needs to move on to peace negotiations with Ukraine. 39% said they were in favor of Russia continuing its military operation. That is the largest support for a peaceful end to the war in Ukraine since the group began public opinion polls in February 2022. 74 percent would support Putin if he signed a peace agreement "tomorrow," compared to just 18 percent who said they would not support a stop to the war. According to Russian Field's findings, public support for a swift peaceful solution is almost at its highest since the start of the war. However, in a scenario where ending the war would include Russia returning the Ukrainian territories it currently occupies and has annexed, only 34 percent of respondents said they still support swift negotiations. Support for Putin's invasion of Ukraine reached an all-time low in polls from September, with just 38 percent of respondents saying they support Russia's actions in Ukraine.

While Zelensky had recent 81% approval, after surviving multiple Russian assassination attempts, even as elections are postponed due to marshal law.
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Last investment round valued OpenAI at about $90 Billion. Microsoft to date invested $13B into OpenAI research.

Very nice return on investment with now total in-house control over direction of R&D.

Windows 11 already has elements of embedded "LLM inside" in the latest / next release.
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#7 | Posted by Tor at 2023-11-18 11:07 PM
Why shouldn't we want to Outlaw Tik Tok and why should anyone give a damn what Bin Laden thought about anything?

Possibly because one man's "terrorist" is millions of peoples' "resistance / freedom fighter"?
Maybe Osama bin Laden is [becoming] a new "Che" Guevara?
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No Labels Party Asks Supporters If They Would Pay to Help Choose Nominee

The No Labels party is contemplating requiring members to donate at least $100 to cast a vote for the party's nominee at an upcoming convention.

It's a typical "commitment test." Looks like they are trying to identify "committed voters" first, who would know the people they're voting for, and filter out curiosity seekers and free-loading "tourists" from actual selection process.
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#2 | Posted by RightisTrite at 2023-11-18 10:34 AM

... [Osama bin Laden] sought to eradicate opium poppies from Afghanistan... something the Taliban is up to again. This is probably just an opening salvo. Republicl0wns never met a war on drugs they didn't profit from losing.

Yeah, the "good" Taliban is waging the "war on heroin" and abandoning poppies only because it gives them more control over poorer tribes, when they don't get the cut... and because it has become far less, if at all, profitable than synthetics, like fentanyl, distribution and production of which they can control. Capitalist Taliban understands the nature of "business."

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#32 | Posted by snoofy at 2023-11-17 08:26 AM |
COVID did that.

COVID was in 2020. The decline in stock prices was from 2018 through 2019.

Not Trump.

You are right about that.

Why have they doubled since Biden, and when are you going to sing Biden's praises and/or name him as a Big Oil Conspirator?

That makes no sense.
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#9 | Posted by snoofy at 2023-11-17 08:16 AM

Um, you don't think Iran is wise and sensible to view nuclear states Israel, Pakistan, and India as much bigger threats that they ought to be able to deter?
Not to mention Russia?

No, nobody thinks that. This sounds about as credible as Russia's pretext for invasion of Ukraine, where it claims that they just had to deter a threat because it has been "surrounded" by NATO countries.

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#3 | Posted by LampLighter at 2023-11-17 12:19 AM
This is a curious development. Why is Iran now seeming to back away from this war?

They are not "backing away" - they are happy to have their proxies Hamas, Islamic Jihad, Hezbollah, and even Yemen's Houthis do the dirty work for them, financing and training, and supplying weapons... while keeping away from direct confrontation.

Their primary goals have been destabilizing the region (using Palestinians as 'victims') and developing nuclear weapons which will make them a much bigger threat.
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#27 | Posted by LampLighter at 2023-11-16 05:59 PM |
@#26 ... Why didn't they just raise prices before Covid? ...

----- I have suggested in the past that Big Oil was raising prices and obtaining record profits in order to make Pres Biden look bad and to get a Republican back in the White House, a Republican that is sympathetic towards Big Oil.

Oh no, not the Big Oil conspiracy again!

First of all, there is no such thing. Outside of maybe OPEC+ (which has not been doing great lately), oil and gas are global commodities which are responsible for less than 5% of global GDP and about 8% of total composite (direct and indirect US GDP) - out of 12 major Integrated Oil and Gas companies on US stock exchanges (and not counting Saudi Aramco, Russian Gazprom and Lukoil, several giant Chinese oil companies like CNOOC and CNP etc.) only two, Exxon and Chevron are US-registered, the rest are 3 Canadian, 2 British, 1 each from France, Norway, Brazil, Italy and Colombia.

All of them conspired against Biden?

Like most essential global commodities, the prices of oil and gas are driven by supply and demand and therefore fluctuate widely.

If "Big Oil" had such a (political) control over prices of oil and gas then why in the last two months alone the price of Brent and TWI crude fell from USD$98 / $93 to USD$77 / $73 respectively?

Natgas prices, which crashed in 2019 from USD$4 to USD$2 went up in 2022 to USD$10 after Russia invaded Ukraine and threatened Europe with supply disruption, but dropped almost 80% in early 2023 back to $2 level and is now up almost 50% at about $3.

Why, when 3 times in the last year Saudis announced (and Russia echoed) that they will reduce supply of oil, the markets jumped initially and then almost immediately, within weeks slumped to previous, or even lower levels? Why are they at the price level of 2018 - Trump administration?

If "Big Oil" companies really have "record profits" their stocks wouldn't be at the level of 2013-2014 (Obama administration) and were flat to 25% down during 2017-2020 period? Refineries like Valero or Marathon did even worse during Trump administration, with stocks down 60%-80% over 3-4 years. Why didn't any of them just raise prices to get magical mythical "record profits" if they could do so at will?

Increased supply (as Republicans want) leads to lower prices, restricted supply (as Democrats supposedly want, to promote "clean" / "renewable" energy) lead to higher prices - it's basic market economics. Which ones would lead to "record profits"?

Very few companies now, outside of "Magnificent Seven" have annual "record profits," especially if they're adjusted for inflation.

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McConnell has emerged as perhaps the strongest advocate in Congress for sending billions of dollars in American assistance to Ukraine ...

He and many Republicans in the Senate (and quite a few in the House) understand that we are in a war and this is not the time to play retail internal politics. He and Chuck Schumer have a bipartisan Senate bill on emergency funding for Ukraine and Israel - it's all one war, against the same "Union of Tyrants" alliance / Axis.

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#31 | Posted by madbomber at 2023-11-09 02:38 PM
At least he is honest about it. And he didn't get rich embezzling money that was intended to be charitable.