In particular, the oft-quoted figure that 20,000 new residents from Haiti have settled in Springfield is not accurate. The real number is likely around half that amount. Here's how we know.

Springfield's population peaked at more than 80,000 in 1960 but then began a continuous decline, falling to under 60,000 in 2020. But that decline appears to be leveling off as the city experiences what the local newspaper called in 2022 a "resurgence."

Newcomers from Haiti have played a critical role in this transformation, and their actual number is likely more in line with official estimates in the low five figures. But even these assessments may be too large: New data from the Census Bureau shows only a tiny increase in Springfield's Haitian population, though it, too, has sources of error, and comes to us already a year out of date.

As Haitians in Springfield experience an outpouring of hatred fomented by the far right, it's reasonable to ask why we might be concerned with precise population counts. Accurate data, however, is at the heart of responsive democratic governance. Cities, counties, states, and the federal government all need detailed information about their inhabitants if they're to meet the needs of longtime residents and new arrivals alike.

If we take the county's current official estimates for all immigrants (around 12,000 to 15,000) and subtract the ACS estimate of the total foreign-born population prior to extensive Haitian immigration (approximately 2,000 in 2019, which is itself likely to be an undercount), that also suggests a total Haitian community of around 10,000.

Again, these numbers are for Clark County as a whole, so the figures for Springfield itself would be lower. They are also estimates, so the total we've arrived at could be somewhat greater or somewhat smaller.

Conversely, repression of the facts is a key page in the authoritarian's playbook. The absence of trustworthy data creates an information vacuum easily filled by propaganda. That gap is already being exploited. The Downballot's goal is to close it.