Monday, October 14, 2024

GOP Creating Fake Polls: 'Desperate, unhinged, Trumpian'

As polls seem to indicate that former president Donald Trump has momentum in some swing states with 24 days remaining until the Nov. 5 presidential election, Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg says: Don't buy it. About a month ago, Rosenberg predicted that a slew of polls by Republican organizations would flood the zone, showing Trump leading -- and, like clockwork, it has happened.

Posted by AMERICANUNITY at 09:33 AM | 11 COMMENTS | permalink

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"Of last 15 general election polls released in PA, 12 have right/GOP affiliations. Their campaign to game the polling averages and make it appear like Trump is winning " when he isn't " escalated in last few days.

"I urge journalists and researchers to dive into FiveThirtyEight and see how the red wave pollsters have flooded the zone again. MT, PA, NC were initial targets but now it's all 7 battleground states.

"This 2024 red wave op is much larger and involves many more actors and polls than the red wave campaign in 2022. It also involves new players " Polymarket, Elon " and feels far more desperate, frenetic, unhinged. Trumpian."

#1 | Posted by AMERICANUNITY at 2024-10-13 01:15 AM

"More than 25 organizations are now involved in red wave 2024," Rosenberg tweeted. "Last week, they dropped 27 polls. This week it's more. Ferocity of effort to make it look like Trump is winning clearly means they don't think he is."

#2 | Posted by AMERICANUNITY at 2024-10-13 01:16 AM

@#2 ... "I urge journalists and researchers to dive into FiveThirtyEight ...

The concern I have with that is that FiveThirtyEight is an opinion site.

A statistician that apparently was taken on board by ESPN.

So, an opinion.

Little more.

Just an opinion and, it seems, projections from that opinion, which is based upon polls, .

I mean...

Who will win the presidency?
2016 Election Forecast
projects.fivethirtyeight.com

...
Chance of winning

Hillary Clinton - 71.4%

Donald Trump - 28.6%
...




#3 | Posted by LampLighter at 2024-10-13 01:39 AM

More to the point...

I am current quite concerned that the polling trend that had favored VP Harris seems to have diminished. OK, I'll say, disappeared.

Did her campaign peak too early?

The momentum she had now seems to be gone.


I mean, all it takes is a look at this polling results graph to see that the rise in support that had been received is not there.

www.realclearpolling.com

(scroll down a bit for the graph)

In the past I have noted VP Harris' momentum, and I have also noted that she needs to turn that momentum into people going to the polls and voting for her and the Democrats' down ticket candidates.

That effort seems to be fizzling.

#4 | Posted by LampLighter at 2024-10-13 01:49 AM

I will gladly put a cap in a MAGAT

#5 | Posted by LegallyYourDead at 2024-10-13 02:17 AM

Who will win the presidency?
2016 Election Forecast
projects.fivethirtyeight.com

...
Chance of winning
Hillary Clinton - 71.4%

Donald Trump - 28.6%
...

#3 | Posted by LampLighter

Nate Silver is no longer with 538.

And that actually matched internal polling from the Trump campaign in 2016. He still had a good chance to win and he did.

Their predictive model accounts for polling error and weights the polls. So that's why they gave him a still solid chance.

#6 | Posted by Sycophant at 2024-10-14 10:56 AM

Here is a good example of what the author is talking about:

Sept 28 - Oct 8 - 600 registered voters - Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/GBAO (paid by Wall Street Journal) - Georgia - Harris +2
Oct 6 - Oct 9 - 800 likely voters - Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/McLaughlin & Associates (paid by Donald Trump) - Georgia - Trump +1

#7 | Posted by Sycophant at 2024-10-14 11:04 AM

They need their cult of morons to think it must be fraud if they lose, so they can attempt another coup.

#8 | Posted by SpeakSoftly at 2024-10-14 01:25 PM

@#6 ... Nate Silver is no longer with 538. ...

Yup, ESPN picked his opinions up.

That aside, I have tended to avoid the 538/Nate Silver opinions because they are just that ... opinions.

Stated differently ...

I prefer to look at the raw polling data, not what others may view of that data.

Why?

Well, for one, the raw polling data presents the margin of error right out there, up front.

And in this current race for the Oval Office the margin of error is most important.

At this point either VP Harris or fmr Pres Trump could win. imo.



#9 | Posted by LampLighter at 2024-10-14 10:04 PM


Colourfield - Castles in the Air (1985)
www.youtube.com

Lyrics excerpt...

genius.com

...
I really wanted her hair to touch her knees
I really wanted to share forgotten dreams
Go through the motions of loving from a far
And feel as if i'm reaching for the stars
But each drop of hopelessness amounts
To what could be a raging sea
It could be spring time, I'd meet her at the gates
If beauty ever comes to those who wait

Castles in the air
If only they were there
Just like a beatnik love affair
Those castles in the air
...


#10 | Posted by LampLighter at 2024-10-14 10:08 PM

I've noticed several recent polls attributing a surge to Trump
have almost all been from right wing sources. Interesting.
I guess they are trying to convince us (via psychology) that the
race is tightening or leaning in his favor.

If you're on the Left, ignore the polls, get out and vote--early if possible.
If you're on the Right, you are tired and should stay home.

#11 | Posted by earthmuse at 2024-10-15 02:58 PM

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