Cry harder.
#1 | Posted by deadman

Who's crying? I'm posting articles you don't like. More info about Polymarket has been coming out:

What We Know About the Mystery Trader Betting Big on a Trump Win

A mysterious online trader is betting big on former President Donald Trump beating Vice President Kamala Harris in the presidential race.

Trump and Harris are locked in a tight race with less than three weeks until Election Day. Polls show the two candidates separated by only tiny margins in battleground states. But online betting markets, where individuals are putting millions of real dollars on the results of the presidential race, have broken toward Trump in recent days.

Polymarket, one of the leading political betting markets that is based offshore and partially funded by Peter Thiel, gave Trump about a 60 percent chance off winning the election as of Wednesday, while Harris had a 40 percent chance of victory. Betting odds have fluctuated throughout the election and may change based on current events and polls that could affect the outcome of the race.

But one trader has appeared to be influencing the market by betting millions of dollars on a Trump victory.

As of late Tuesday, the trader, only known as Fredi9999, has purchased more than 15 million shares, valued at $8.7 million, betting that Trump would win the election.

They have also purchased more than 3 million shares betting that Trump would win the popular vote, and nearly 1.5 million shares that Trump would carry Pennsylvania, a crucial battleground state that is viewed as the most likely tipping-point state this cycle. All told, Fredi9999's position is valued at more than $14 million on the platform.

Cry harder.
#1 | Posted by deadman

Who's crying? I'm posting articles you don't like. More info about Polymarket has been coming out:

What We Know About the Mystery Trader Betting Big on a Trump Win

A mysterious online trader is betting big on former President Donald Trump beating Vice President Kamala Harris in the presidential race.

Trump and Harris are locked in a tight race with less than three weeks until Election Day. Polls show the two candidates separated by only tiny margins in battleground states. But online betting markets, where individuals are putting millions of real dollars on the results of the presidential race, have broken toward Trump in recent days.

Polymarket, one of the leading political betting markets that is based offshore and partially funded by Peter Thiel, gave Trump about a 60 percent chance off winning the election as of Wednesday, while Harris had a 40 percent chance of victory. Betting odds have fluctuated throughout the election and may change based on current events and polls that could affect the outcome of the race.

But one trader has appeared to be influencing the market by betting millions of dollars on a Trump victory.

As of late Tuesday, the trader, only known as Fredi9999, has purchased more than 15 million shares, valued at $8.7 million, betting that Trump would win the election.

They have also purchased more than 3 million shares betting that Trump would win the popular vote, and nearly 1.5 million shares that Trump would carry Pennsylvania, a crucial battleground state that is viewed as the most likely tipping-point state this cycle. All told, Fredi9999's position is valued at more than $14 million on the platform.

Sorry, for the double post. :-(

Forget the betting markets, forget the polls. Just vote:

Burst of trades inflates Trump's margin in election prediction markets

Small group of bettors lifts odds of Republican victory to 62 per cent on cryptocurrency-based Polymarket

In theory, betting markets may offer a more accurate forecast of election results than polls and models, though fee structures, market sizes and other limitations can cloud those results.

Polymarket competitor PredictIt infamously gave Hillary Clinton roughly 80 per cent odds of victory in 2016 before her loss. PredictIt traders also continued to give Trump a 10 per cent chance of winning the state of Wisconsin weeks after the race had been called in the media.

Remember the red tsunami in 2022 that wasn't? Notice the same pattern come mid-October:

Republicans have over 70% chance of winning Senate in midterm elections, betting markets say
Last Updated: Nov. 8, 2022
First Published: Oct. 24, 2022

The Republican Party's prospects in today's midterm elections have been continuing to climb this fall, with betting market PredictIt now giving the GOP a more than 70% chance for taking control of the U.S. Senate away from Democrats.

Republicans reached a 76% chance of winning the Senate last Thursday and were at 74% as of Monday, according to PredictIt data.

Democrats had been enjoying an edge over the GOP throughout August and September, but that advantage went away in the second week of October.

"Broadly speaking, Democrats' momentum from the summer has largely leveled off, with voters increasingly focused on Republican issues such as the economy, inflation, and crime, at the expense of Democrats' agenda items, including Roe and guns, according to recent polls," said Benjamin Salisbury, director of research at Height Capital Markets, in a recent note.

Gal ... there was at least one article that made it to the front page about Kamala leading betting markets a few weeks back. So was that article wrong because it didn't gauge Trump's surge in popularity or what?
As well, Harris is losing every swing state aggregate polling. Are we to believe there's a problem with these polls as well?
#16 | Posted by Bluewaffles

As I said upthread, Forget the betting markets, forget the polls. Just vote:

The red wave campaign this year is on a much greater scale than 2022. It started much earlier, has many more actors and has produced far more polling. It needed to be bigger for in general election years there is more polling. So to move the averages more polls were needed, and they got to work earlier doing so. And this is important. In 2022 the campaign began late, in mid-October. They had less time to move the averages so their polls were often 3-4 points to the right of the polling as they needed these bigger margins to move the averages in a shorter time period. This time, because they started earlier and are producing more polls their polls are often only 1-2 points to the right of the polling average or independent polls. They are working the averages more carefully this time, over using the time and volume to move them gradually so the op is not as crude and as easy to see as last time. If Harris leads by 2.5 points and you drop 5 polls showing the race tied or her ahead by 1 or even 2 points the averages moves and it looks like she is losing altitude. . . .

The red wave 2024 campaign also includes a major new entrant, Polymarket, an off-shore crypto-based betting market whose lead investor is Peter Thiel, former business partner to Elon Musk and primary political patron of JD Vance. Polymarket is buying product placement on sites and with influencers for their 2024 American election results even though NO AMERICAN CAN LEGALLY PARTICIPATE IN PROCESS THAT DETERMINES THE DATA. Polymarket is everywhere. Harry Enten higlights their data on CNN. Right wing influencers pump Polymarket maps showing Trump "winning" everyday. Nate Silver is an advisor to Polymarket. Elon and Twitter of course are pumping this stuff, hard.