Friday, November 08, 2024

Democrats Join 2024's Graveyard of Incumbents

The incumbents in every single one of the 10 major countries that have been tracked by the ParlGov global research project and held national elections in 2024 were given a kicking by voters. This is the first time this has ever happened in almost 120 years of records. The cause? Inflation.

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Ultimately voters don't distinguish between unpleasant things that their leaders and governments have direct control over, and those that are international phenomena resulting from supply-side disruptions caused by a global pandemic or the warmongering of an ageing autocrat halfway across the world.

Voters don't like high prices, so they punished the Democrats for being in charge when inflation hit. The cost of living was also the top issue in Britain's July general election and has been front of mind in dozens of other countries for most of the last two years.

That different politicians, different parties, different policies and different rhetoric deployed in different countries have all met similar fortunes suggests that a large part of Tuesday's American result was locked in regardless of the messenger or the message. The wide variety of places and people who swung towards Trump also suggests an outcome that was more inevitable than contingent.

But it's not just about inflation. An update of economist Arthur Okun's "misery index" " the sum of the inflation and unemployment rates " for this era might swap out joblessness and replace it with immigration. On this basis, the past couple of years in the US, UK and dozens of other countries have been characterised by more economic and societal upheaval than they have seen in generations.

#1 | Posted by censored at 2024-11-07 06:31 PM

Not to interfere with the circular firing squad, and certainly Dems made plenty of mistakes, but if you take a gander at that chart you'll see that the Dems actually did far better than governing parties in almost every other nation.

Incumbent-parties-lost-vote-share-2024-Gby4hbz-WAAMl-WLo

#2 | Posted by censored at 2024-11-07 06:35 PM

Another link to the article if the provided one doesn't work for anyone:

Commentary: Democrats join 2024's global graveyard of incumbents
Governments across the world are struggling in this period of economic and geopolitical turmoil, writes the Financial Times' John Burn-Murdoch.
www.channelnewsasia.com

#3 | Posted by censored at 2024-11-07 06:44 PM

"Trump's proposals of heightened tariffs and the mass deportation of undocumented immigrants could raise prices for everything from coffee to bananas to smartphones, experts said.

"People are obviously unhappy with inflation. Trump's policies aren't a remedy " they will feed the fire," Robert Lawrence, a professor of trade and investment at Harvard University's Kennedy School of Government, told ABC News."

abcnews.go.com

That's going to werk out SO well!

#4 | Posted by Corky at 2024-11-08 06:45 PM

Ever since democrats abandoned populism their only win was due to a pandemic being flubbed by the republican.

Obama betrayed them. The DNC betrayed them. Now they are die hard trumpers. Yes he betrayed them too and will again, but the russian media machine prevents them from learning about it.

#5 | Posted by SpeakSoftly at 2024-11-08 11:45 PM

That's going to werk out SO well!
#4 | Posted by Corky

Ever since democrats abandoned populism their only win was due to a pandemic being flubbed by the republican.
#5 | Posted by SpeakSoftly

I'm coming to the conclusion that people just don't care, absent some great crisis.

The only reason Obama won in 2008 was because of the financial meltdown, with McCain/Palin ahead by 5+ points before that happened. The 2008 Onion post-election headline summed it up pretty nicely ("Nation Finally [Sheetey] Enough To Make Social Progress" theonion.com ). Clinton only won because of the poor economy and Perot siphoning off Bush Sr.'s votes.

On top of that, Dems govern doing a balancing act of not teeing off their base (e.g., Latinos by shutting down the border, trans-friendly policies, expressing concern for the well-being of Palestinian terrorists, etc). Herding cats with each position costing them with someone else.

Trump keeps winning by lying through his teeth about the sky falling, Mexican rapists, and Haitian pet eaters and motivates his base to turn out, everyone hearing what they wanted to hear.

Dems try to rile people up but the concepts are too vague (fascism, democracy, corruption) to register with people or cut through the fact that ground beef costs $5 a pound.

#6 | Posted by censored at 2024-11-09 09:41 AM

People don't want facts. ---- em all

#7 | Posted by LegallyYourDead at 2024-11-09 10:43 PM

Article: incumbents around the globe are losing here's why it affected Harris too

The Retort Left: Harris lost be because

Further pushing the moderate middle away from them.

#8 | Posted by kwrx25 at 2024-11-10 12:41 PM

Interesting edit ... . The missing part "insert rant about trump, a trump deflection and an attack on the electorate"

#9 | Posted by kwrx25 at 2024-11-10 12:43 PM

"Y'all got any more of them DEI jobs ?"

-- Karine Jean-Pierre

#10 | Posted by shrimptacodan at 2024-11-10 02:55 PM

Speaking of graveyards, that's where the demented------------- planted Herman Cain.

#11 | Posted by reinheitsgebot at 2024-11-10 03:04 PM

Drudge Retort Headlines

Trump Picks Matt Gaetz as Attorney General (160 comments)

Trump Picks Fox News Host for Defense Secretary (138 comments)

Trump Picks Musk, Ramaswamy for Government Efficiency Effort (45 comments)

Trump to Name Marco Rubio as Secretary of State (42 comments)

The End of America's Well-Intentioned Empire (40 comments)

Trump to Launch Massive Attack Against Higher Education (35 comments)

Who Really Supports Free Speech? (34 comments)

Trump Names Noem Homeland Security Czarina (28 comments)

Guardian no Longer Posting on X (20 comments)

2024's Other Big Loser -- Mainstream Media (19 comments)