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#1 | Posted by ScottS at 2025-05-15 09:03 AM
... the 'expert' consensus was an INCREASE of .3% for April. So, the 'experts' were off by a full .8%. They deserve no credibility.

The numbers you refer are usually an average of number of "experts" who make them several months in advance, i.e., well before Trump attacked the world economy with the "most stupid tariffs" (that's according to even most MAGA tariff-sympathetic economists and "experts") ever seen.

The numbers, and the resulting "expert opinions", reflect much sharper slowdown of the economy than "experts" expected, solely due to businesses dumping existing inventory and volume discounts to businesses that rushed to stock on pre-tariff arriving inventory - IOW, caused by Trump's much higher and wider tariffs than businesses and sane "experts" expected. That's a one-off, and some prices for inelastic items will resume their upward movement, coupled with tariffs/taxes, while others may rise on demand shortages or drop for a month or two due to rising prices.

Then again, you probably approve of President who can not only institute what amounts to a "federal/national sales tax" of any size on any item, but also raise or lower it at any time for any reason (or any whim) at all? Trump lost whatever economic "credibility" he might have had even with people who generally support tariffs (for protectionist / "fairness" reasons), no matter how poorly economically "justified" they may be.

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#2 | Posted by ScottS at 2025-05-15 09:20 AM
Well I am SHOCKED. The 'experts' expected a rise in wholesales prices but instead, they were DOWN .5% from March. This is a HUGE deal. First, our 'experts' once again proved their forecasts are fueled by political bias and/or they have no idea how trade actually works.

Second, there is ZERO need for the Fed to continue holding interest rates high when wholesale prices are actually deflationary.

Again, you are using a single [one-off] variable for a single period of usually multi-months of economic indicators to make a sweeping economic policy statement / decision. Cherry picking volatile and "unadjusted for real life" indicators is "unwise," to put it mildly.

Also - first drop in 4 years - I wonder what kind of ------- had been running the show for the prior 4 years to bring such horrible results.

Considering the drop was undeniably caused by an abrupt and radical (and illegal) Trump's tariff/tax decision, contrary to even his economic disciples, we know who is the certifiable s**thead that is running the show now.

Here is just one of real experts, who successfully ran the largest active bond funds in the world (Allianz-PIMCO) - Mohamed El-Erian:
|------- "While quoting the central banker [Powell] verbatim, El-Erian asks if the concerns raised "Sounds familiar?" This two-word response by the renowned economist highlights how the Fed's messaging mirrors prior inflationary cycles and supply-side shocks over the years.

... [El-Erian is] alluding to the stagflation of the 1970s, a period El-Erian has frequently referenced in past commentary. He has warned that tariffs and trade wars risk creating conditions reminiscent of the Carter era, marked by low growth and high inflation.
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Let's see other, more relevant and forward-looking numbers from the same and next days' reports:
April's Empire State Manufacturing went -1.1 to -9.2, Industrial Production lost 0.3%, Import prices +0.5% (future inflation indicator) and Consumer Sentiment for May dropped to 50.8 (-26.5% Y-Y, -30% since Jan. 2025) - all were expected to improve or stay stable.

How is that for being SHOCKED?

Curb your enthusiasm. And welcome to the "95% Club"!
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