Understand that where things stand, Iran has zero incentive to stop fighting, to enter negotiations. There is a ticking clock (actually multiple ticking clocks) that benefits ONLY Iran. Those ticking clocks are the economic damage being inflicted on the global economy and the quickly depleting stockpile of interceptor missiles in Israel, the Gulf States and American bases.

Those ticking clocks put pressure on Piggy (and to a far lesser extent Israel-as Israel has different aims and has a different tolerance for harm) to end the conflict.

Piggy is pushing get Iran to accept a ceasefire in his terms, but failing, completely. Iran has refused to engage with Piggy's picked negotiators (Kushnick and Witcoff) and actually trolls the US pushing for isolationist Vance to negotiate.

BTW, there is a rule of thumb, you send your doves to start wars and your hawks to end wars. Sending a dove to negotiate peace is sending someone who will be eager to give up more and more to reach a deal.

Everything from Piggy's side smells of weakness-his lack of attention to the war, his childish Sec. of Defense, Vance as negotiator.

Piggy's options are as follows, (generally speaking)

1. Continue waging war as he is doing-bombing to little effect.
2. Escalate the war-bomb MORE intensely, which necessarily would mean expanding to civilian targets
3. Ground invasion of limited or massive scale
4. Accept terms that benefit Iran mostly

Option 1 simply will not work and every day the cost to the US, Israel and the Gulf States will increase exponentially as the conflict expands horizontally (into industrial and power sectors) and as more and more missiles get through a depleting defense

Iran would be insane to accept terms under these conditions. They would ONLY be signing their own death warrant a year from now when Israel and the US rebuild their stocks and decide to mow the lawn.

This war has become existential for Iran. I don't think it ever has been existential for Israel until Israel made it existential for Iran. Israel, but deciding on a public policy of mowing the lawn has given Iran no choice but to defend itself as it can and we see how dangerous that defense can be.

And be clear, Israel is in it for a maximalist end. Their people, if polls are to be believed, are fully on board with this war (though interesting to see serious protests against the war put down harshly by the Israeli state.

A sliver of hope is that Israel has backed off its regime change rhetoric, a bit. That may change but is a hopeful sign they are considering a negotiated settlement, they probably see the devastation on the horizon.

But on the other hand, they are attempting to Gaza-fy Southern Lebanon. They are committing atrocities, again-killing journalists and EMS and are targeting UN peacekeepers.

So, there is certainly a nihilistic element to Israel's war.

Oh and if you hadn't noticed, Israel is repeatedly targeting Iran's nuclear facilities.

That is not good.

Back to Piggy's options

Since continuing the current air campaign will inevitably reach diminishing returns on military targets, i.e. more and more bombing to achieve less and less militarily (though I suspect we are long past that point).

So, if Piggy continues to intensify the air campaign it will INEVITABLY lead to more civilian infrastructure being targeted-manufacturing, transportation-roads and bridges, power system. As the bombing moves down the list you get into far more critical and sensitive areas like water and nuclear facilities.

Any attack along these lines will be met tit-for-tat by Iran. they have responded thusly throughout the war. Israel bombed Iran's steel plant, Iran bombed aluminum plants in the Gulf States, Israel bombs nuclear facilities, Iran bombs Israel's nuclear facilities.

And any targeting of civilian structures will ONLY harden Iran's position and will result in pushing otherwise anti-regime elements to temporarily align with their government. that is inevitable.

This is escalation that will not achieve anything.

So, option 3 ground forces

I honestly don't see that as a viable option, there simply aren't enough forces in theater to achieve anything substantial.

You don't seize a feature like an island with limited force under opposition. An operation like that DEMANDS reinforcements incase things go sideways. We simply don't have those resources in place.

Even if a MEU captures an island or 2, so what? To what end? How will that be exploited-YOU WOULD NEED MORE FORCES.

That will not open the strait, it simply won't

And to be clear, assume every island in the strait and the entire shoreland is captured from the gulf of Oman to the Kuwaiti coast

So what? What will that achieve? Will tankers and VLCC travel through the strait, load up and exit?

Simply put

NO

Understand clearly

Iran can target ships in the Persian Gulf by missiles and drones from ANYWHERE in their country.

No shipping company is going to risk it's $100,000,000 toys under those circumstances even assuming an insurance co. would underwrite that risk

There is no solution in clearing the strait/

NONE

So, seize the nuclear material?

LOL, just no, that would be folly, so dumb even Piggy would not do it.

The containers are heavy and the containers are dangerous and the containers are not where they think they are.

It would take a raid of unprecedent proportions. Something WAY beyond what has ever even been conceived

Nope, not going to happen

So, despite all of the bated breath commentary in the media and pundit and pod world. Despite all of the eager anticipation.

A ground attack is not imminent.

Ground attacks don't work that way.

Some basic ideas. Ground attacks need some place to form up. Everywhere we could form up is either hostile territory and/or subject to constant drone attack.

So, you say, we do an amphibious landing.

With a single MEU or even 2 MEUs?

UMMM NOPE

Then there is a thing called supply

A human being can only carry so much, even given the beasts of the marine corps. Ok they will have some carrying capacity in vehicles

Do you know how much ammunition and food and medical supplies are required for an assault? For something that will last even a couple of days?

And here is something else, what about drinking water? You think the Iranians will just let an attacking force use whatever water they use, which most certainly is pumped from the mainland.

Sorry

Ain't gnna happen

So we are left with Option 4
Negotiated settlement

And since Option 1, 2 and 3 are dead ends

What chips does Piggy have to bring to the negotiation table? I am honestly curious if someone could give me something.

The ONLY thing Piggy has to offer, short of giving Iran what Iran wants, is to stop bombing. that is it.

Then you are left with GIVING Iran stuff

Piggy can't conceive of that, he surrounds himself with losers, remember. That way he always wins.

He cannot comprehend a situation where he can't either wiggle out like a bitch, declare victory regardless of the situation or bully himself to force capitulation on others.

He doesn't have the imagination to conceive of what must be done because that door leads to terror in his mind. To open that door would take a courage he does not possess. Opening that door requires honesty, humility, integrity. All things that Piggy lacks

Every human being makes mistakes, Presidents make mistakes with terrible consequences.

That is why character matters.

You need a leader that can rely on a basic moral character to find a solution. Sometimes that solution involves admitting a mistake, admitting a mistake requires self-reflection, humility, honesty and integrity.

There is a reason that no president from Reagen to Biden chose to attack Iran with Israel. Because each one recognized the folly of such an endeavor. They all had, even W and Cheney had the wits to realize that it was a bad idea.

But along comes Piggy who is, lets face it, an idiot, disdaining history or reading or knowledge who was OBVIOUSLY manipulated by Netanyahu decides to do the unthinkably stupid and agrees to blow up Iran's nuclear facilities last June. At that point, Piggy was stuck, Netanyahu had him, completely. Piggy could never again diverge from Israel's actions. Rubio admitted it. Israel was going to attack Iran, and we had to attack because Iran would come after us. Piggy surrendered our national security, our foreign policy to Israel.

I suspect that Israel's acceptance of the Gaza truce included an agreement that the US would help Israel attack Iran's nuclear facilities. I have no proof but it makes sense logically.

So, we are left with a president without the moral fiber to do what needs to be done.

Surrounded by sycophants, sociopaths and man-childs

The ONLY thing Piggy has to offer, short of giving Iran what Iran wants, is to stop bombing. that is it.
He can't even do that. Israel is not going to stop.

#13 | Posted by REDIAL

that is the trillions dollar question though, how bad can things get before circumstances demand action

BTW

For those who aren't aware

Israel/US have been bombing Iranian universities, nuclear facilities, steel plants, and more

Iran has threatened Israeli and US schools in the area

Iran bombed Kuwaiti water plant "Just about an hour ago, the Ministry of Electricity, water and renewable energy released a statement, saying that a service building and one of the electric power and water desalination plants were targeted, subjected to an attack they described as "sinful Iranian aggression against the state of Kuwait"."

Kuwait gets 90% of its water from desalination plants

For those not aware, people, ALL people, need water to live. If you get rid of 90% of water for people, those people will die

So, ummm

@#6 ... Even if a MEU captures an island or 2, so what? To what end? How will that be exploited-YOU WOULD NEED MORE FORCES.

That will not open the strait, it simply won't ...
Kharg is Iran's mai (major!) oil exporting point. If Iran loses Kharg, thenran's funding is essentially cut off.
My current opinion (and it is no more than that, an opinion, and over-simplified at that)...
Pres Trump is looking to take over Kharg. Not to run the operations on Kharg (Marines, as great as they are, cannot run an oil processing facility), but just to show that he can take it over.
To that end, he may think that Iran will just give up and open Hormuz in return for getting back Kharg.
#16 | Posted by LampLighte

If he does that he should immediately be 25th Amendmented

What do you think Iran's reaction to that might be?

What would YOU do in that situation?

I know I would send my best missiles at Israel's nuclear plant and water desalination plants and all of the Gulf state desalination plants (I freely admit I occasionally have impulse control issues)

Iran can survive that, Israel, and the Gulf states could not.

Well until Israel sends nukes at Iran

So, yeah, targeting Iran's primary source of income?

Bad idea

Even if Iran took NO action

Price of Oil skyrockets to $200/barrel

Iran has zero incentive to stop fighting
They really have no other choice than to keep fighting. They will be bombed whatever they do.

#4 | Posted by REDIAL

Every day improves Iran's hand as the world destabilizes due to the oil and resources are stymied at the strait.

Collapse of the world economy could be weeks away

Japan's Nikkei dropped 5%

Oh and Piggy said he wants to steal Iran's oil AND said they were close to a deal.

Trump says he's pretty sure' of a deal with Iran
The US president has been speaking to reporters on board Air Force One.

He repeated some of his statements from earlier, saying direct and indirect negotiations with Iran were going "extremely well" and that the US has achieved "regime change" in Tehran.

Here are some of his comments:

Trump said "we've had very good negotiations today with Iran" and that Tehran was giving the US a "lot of things they should have given a long time ago". "We'll see how it works out. But they are very good".
He said the US military has destroyed additional targets in Iran today, and that it was a "big day". "We are negotiating with them directly and indirectly. We have emissaries."
He claimed that Iran has agreed to let up to 20 oil tankers pass through the Strait of Hormuz as a "sign of respect" to the US.
"I could only say that we're doing extremely well in that negotiation. But you never know where they're at, because we negotiate with them, and then we always have to bomb them," he said.
"I think, we'll make a deal with them, pretty sure. But it is possible, we won't."
"But we've had regime change. You look already, because, one regime was decimated, was destroyed, they're all dead. The next regime is mostly dead. And the third regime, we're dealing with different people than anybody's dealt with before. It's a whole different group of people. So I would consider that regime change, and frankly, they've been very reasonable. So I think we've had regime change. We can't do it much better than that."

I honestly hate those people who inflicted this madman on us

To those with hopium
Piggy LIES about EVERYTHING

EVERY SINGLE WORD OUT OF HIS MOUTH IS A LIE

Ex.

He claimed that Iran has agreed to let up to 20 oil tankers pass through the Strait of Hormuz as a "sign of respect" to the US.

No, Pakistan came to an agreement with Iran and accepts IRANIAN requirements

It is not a sign of respect to that turd

Jut a fucking lie

Trump says US has lots of alternatives' to ground troops in Iran
More from the US president's comments on board Air Force One.

Trump said he does see a deal with Iran and that it "could be soon".
When asked if he would put boots on the ground, Trump said he has "lots of alternatives". "We are weeks ahead of schedule" in the war on Iran, he said.
When asked if Mojtaba Khamenei is alive, he again said "we think he may be" but that he is likely "seriously wounded".
When asked whether the US has heard from Iran on the 15-point plan, he said yes and said: "They gave us most of the points. Why wouldn't they?"

DOES ANYONE WANT TO BET THAT ANY OF THIS SHIT IS TRUE?

Oh yeah markets are open(ing)

Nothing more nothing less

In the AM you will see Iran laughing at this

Just to give some perspective

The US president has been speaking to reporters on board Air Force One.
Does he ever got off that thing? Oh, right... wrapping up another $2M golf weekend at home.

#24 | Posted by REDIAL

With his fat head poking through the door to insult female journalists

Trump says Iranian leaders not gonna have a country' if they don't give up nuclear weapons
The US president says he doesn't want Iran to have a nuclear weapon and that Iranian leaders will give up their atomic ambitions.

"They are decimated right now. They're gonna give up nuclear weapons. They're gonna give us the nuclear dust. They're gonna do everything that we want to do, and you know what? They gonna go on and maybe have a great, a great country again. But if they don't do that, they're not gonna have a country. They're not even gonna have a country," he said on board Air Force One.

Does this baby talk sound like Iran has agreed to anything?

Christ this fucker is a lying piece of shit.

Thanks magat scum for inflicting this on us.

To be clear, this week is going to suck, badly

Oil prices are going to skyrocket and the stock market will plummet

Piggy has no idea what he is doing

I doubt he will land troops, but who knows

But the attacks are certainly going to get worse for everyone.

Again, Kuwait Water Desalination Plant hit today.

We could wake up to a massive water shortage for 5 million people

Collapse of the world economy could be weeks away
Do you think Lewzer gives the tiniest bit of a fuck about that? He'll just "buy the dip".

#28 | Posted by REDIAL

You think there will be a dip, isn't that adorable?!

Trump says US would close up' any Iran move to charge toll fees in Strait of Hormuz
The US president was also asked about an Iranian plan to charge toll fees through the Strait of Hormuz.

He said "I'd have to find out if that is true" but the US could shut that operation down vert fast.

"We could close that up in two minutes. We could close that up so fast, your head would spin," he said.

Trump said Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE and Bahrain are fighting back against Iran.

"There was surprised to be hit. I was very surprised they got hit. And once they got hit, they started fighting very well. [We have] very strong communications, but all of those kind of people said, they've all been fighting," he added.

It would be funny if it weren't so dangerous.

"I was very surprised they got hit."

Criminal Negligence

For the record, each time we have attacked Iran since Solemeni was killed Iran attack our bases in the Gulf States

To be clear, it is quite evident that Piggy was finding out about Iran charging tolls in real time

"I'd have to find out if that is true" but the US could shut that operation down vert fast.
"We could close that up in two minutes. We could close that up so fast, your head would spin," he said.

That is exemplary of his go to language when a topic comes up that he had no concept of, its a version of his "2 weeks" tic or his stories (lies) that start with some guy saying
"Sir..." to him

For him not to be aware of something like this is EXTREMELY troubling.

Nah Im envisioning a collapse to a flatline, probably around 1,000 points