__________
Looking at the state of the race today, it's going to be close again, peeps:

Was always going to be - the early "celebration dance" high is over, it's just yet another "anti-vote / vote against" the last candidate who will piss enough "undecided" off just before the vote:

She did not get a real post-convention bump in the polls, neither did Trump. "Kamala-mentum" is gone. Considering who she is running against, this should have been an EC blowout already.

Both have negative "favorable - unfavorable" opinion spread.

Economic conditions are deteriorating - that's the reason the Fed is going to cut Fed rate, despite core and headline inflation still above target, though August and September comparisons against 2023 s/b easy, so official headline annual rate should come down faster, as October data will be after elections. And oil and gas are low, so it should help official inflation readings.

Stock market's "AI bubble" is starting to deflate, in fits and starts, as usual - despite expected rate cut - and "zombie" companies' stocks that went up in the "everything bubble" of 2020-2021 have been sinking fast, so this may affect "consumer sentiment" about economy, but full-on crash is unlikely before elections. "Buffett indicator" is much higher than it was in 2007 (GFC) and even in 1999 (Y2K and "internet bubble).

Consumer spending has been growing much faster than income growth and debt is very high (not even counting "shadow debt" and BNPL), savings rate is low, after being flush from all the COVID "stimulus" packages and states' unemployment checks.

__________
Looking at the state of the race today, it's going to be close again, peeps:

Was always going to be - the early "celebration dance" high is over, it's just yet another "anti-vote / vote against" the last candidate who will piss enough "undecided" off just before the vote:

She did not get a real post-convention bump in the polls, neither did Trump. "Kamala-mentum" is gone. Considering who she is running against, this should have been an EC blowout already.

Both have negative "favorable - unfavorable" opinion spread.

Economic conditions are deteriorating - that's the reason the Fed is going to cut Fed rate, despite core and headline inflation still above target, though August and September comparisons against 2023 s/b easy, so official headline annual rate should come down faster, as October data will be after elections. And oil and gas are low, so it should help official inflation readings.

Stock market's "AI bubble" is starting to deflate, in fits and starts, as usual - despite expected rate cut - and "zombie" companies' stocks that went up in the "everything bubble" of 2020-2021 have been sinking fast, so this may affect "consumer sentiment" about economy, but full-on crash is unlikely before elections. "Buffett indicator" is much higher than it was in 2007 (GFC) and even in 1999 (Y2K and "internet bubble).

Consumer spending has been growing much faster than income growth and debt is very high (not even counting "shadow debt" and BNPL), savings rate is low, after being flush from all the COVID "stimulus" packages and states' unemployment checks.