The majority-nonwhite townships are highlighted in yellow. Union City, in particular, is very heavily Latino. As you can see on the left, it swung very heavily from Biden to Trump in 2024. And it swung equally hard from Trump to Sherrill in 2025. That is true of the whole state, but especially the areas with many Latino voters. In 2024, they were either voting specifically for Trump or specifically against Kamala Harris. Perth Amboy is another heavily-Latino city that also swung sharply back toward Sherrill in 2025.

Democratic strategists saw the 2024 swing not only in New Jersey, but in the Bronx, South Texas, and other locations with large Latino populations. They feared a major realignment was happening. The elections earlier this month were the first test of whether Latinos are now Republicans. The evidence shows they are not. They just liked Trump (or disliked Harris). The results for New Jersey in 2025 are much closer to what they were in the 2021 gubernatorial election than what they were in 2024.