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The NWS Forecaster Discussion for the NYC region...
forecast.weather.gov
... A potentially historic winter storm will impact the Tri-State area today into Monday. This is a dangerous situation with blizzard conditions expected to develop tonight.
All guidance has converged on the evolution, track, and intensity of the system. There are some subtle differences with the global models taking a 970 mb low close to the 40N/70W benchmark by Monday morning, while the hires models are slightly farther west. The latter could be the difference for even higher snowfall amounts than currently forecast.
Low pressure will quickly develop off along the North Carolina coast this morning and rapidly intensify this evening into Monday morning as it slowly lifts north-north east towards the 40N/70W benchmark. The 00Z ECMWF has come into better agreement as it has generally been on the eastern envelope of the operational guidance. This slight shift has resulted in the model QPF coming more into line with the current forecast. Forecast liquid equivalent amounts are mainly between 1.5 and 2 inches. Initially, snow ratios will start out 10:1 or even a bit lower today, then increasing to 12-14:1 by daybreak Monday as colder air wraps around the system. NBM snow ratios have been consistently too high through the event from start to finish.
While deep-layered lift in the snow growth region (-10 to -20C) favors dendritic growth and high ratios, high winds will likely result in fracturing of the crystals, lowering rates. Putting this all together, expect 1 to 2 ft across the tri-state. This is up a few inches from the last forecast.
On the higher end, the NBM (01Z) supports 23 to 30 inches across the area, due to a bit more QPF and the aforementioned higher ratios.
Its 90th percentile supports close to 3 ft across much of the area. The NAMNest is also on the higher end with 2 to 3 inches of liquid equivalent. This is likely due to its more westward track.
The 06Z HRRR which is similar in its track is very much in line with the current forecast. However, a reasonable worst case could put totals up to 3 ft. ...
Update...
US: Technical issues force NASA to postpone moon mission
www.dw.com
... The US space agency NASA on Saturday announced that an issue with the flow of helium to the upper stages of its SLS rocket has left engineers with no option but to again postpone the launch of the agency's first manned moon mission in 50 years.
NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman said that a bad filter, valve or connector plate could have stalled helium flow, explaining that the 322-foot-tall (98-meter) rocket would have to be rolled back into the Vehicle Assembly Building at Kennedy Space Center in Florida to allow specialists to track down the source of the problem.
"We will begin preparations for rollback, and this will take the March launch window out of consideration," Isaacman said via X. NASA's next opportunity will likely come in April. ...
Greenland Rejects Trump Hospital Ship, Criticizes US Health Care
www.newsweek.com
... Greenland's prime minister has publicly rejected U.S. President Donald Trump's suggestion to send a U.S. hospital ship to the island, saying the semi-autonomous Danish territory already provides free health care to its citizens and does not need outside medical assistance.
"It's going to be a no thank you from here," JensFrederik Nielsen wrote in a pointed statement on Facebook Sunday, saying Greenland's publicly funded health care system was a "deliberate choice" and contrasting it with the U.S. "where it costs money to go to the doctor. He added that Greenland remained open to cooperation, but wanted Washington to pursue dialogue rather than "random outbursts on social media." ...
@#21 ... But will that fun last until 4am?
Who knows. ..
It has lasted.
Listening to CSN&Y
Crosby, Stills Nash & Young - Almost Cut My Hair (1970)
www.youtube.com
Curious, the artist on the website is CS&N, but the artist on the album cover shown is CSN&Y.
I cited the song as the latter.
Lyrics excerpt ...
...
This is the third track from Crosby, Stills, Nash and Young's 1970 Deja Vu written by David Crosby. It was one of the few tracks that was recorded in the studio with the entire band who were engaged in internal squabbling.
[Verse 1]
Almost cut my hair
It happened just the other day
It was gettin' kinda long
I could-a said, it was in my way
But I didn't and I wonder why
I feel like letting my freak flag fly
Yes I feel like I owe it to someone
[Guitar Solo]
[Verse 2]
Must be because I had the flu for Christmas
And I'm not feelin' up to par
It increases my paranoia
Like lookin' at my mirror and seein' a police car
But I'm not givin' in an inch to fear
'Cause I promised myself this year
I feel like I owe it to someone
[Guitar Solos]
[Verse 3]
When I finally get myself together
I'm gonna get down in that sunny southern weather
And I find a place inside to laugh
Separate the wheat from the chaff
I feel like I owe it to someone
...
@#20 ... And when they're asked if they know extending otherwise expiring tax cuts is based on all new borrowing! ...
OK, I was having some fun here, and then you came in with your usual fact-based reality. :)
{sigh}
OK, back to the GOP and deficits...
My long answer short...
The GOP complains about the deficit, vociferously.
But, the GOP seems to be the main contributor to the deficit.
U.S. Presidents and the Federal Deficit (2023)
amarkfoundation.org
... By looking at the federal deficit or surplus based on fiscal year, the data in this report show all four Republican presidents since 1980, with our methodology, increased the federal deficit during their time in office: Ronald Reagan had a 94% increase, George H.W. Bush had a 67% increase, George W. Bush had a 1,204% increase, and Trump had a 317% increase.
Both Democratic presidents since 1980 with completed terms decreased the federal deficit while in office: Bill Clinton had a 150% decrease to end his presidency with a federal surplus of $128 billion, and Barack Obama decreased the deficit by 53%. Joe Biden decreased the deficit by 50% in his first fiscal year, but his overall results are pending the end of his presidency. ...
@#17
A question...
I'm having fun this evening listening to music.
But will that fun last until 4am?
Who knows.
In case it doesn't, allow me this ...
The 4 a.m. mystery (TED Talk)
www.youtube.com
Is it a mystery, or a conspiracy?
You decide. The video is kinda long (a bit over 11 minutes), but entertaining, imo
:)
Apropos?
Golden Earring - Twilight Zone (1982)
www.youtube.com
(the long version of the song)
Lyrics excerpt ...
...
Songwriter George Kooymans of Golden Earring was inspired not by the TV show "Twilight Zone", but by the (at that point obscure) novel The Bourne Identity, which years later would be made into a successful movie.
[Verse 1]
It's two a.m., the fear has gone
(It's two a.m., the fear has gone)
I'm sitting here waitin', the gun's still warm
(I'm sitting here waitin', the gun's still warm)
Maybe my connection is tired of takin' chances
Yeah, there's a storm on the loose, sirens in my head
Wrapped up in silence, all circuits are dead
Cannot decode, my whole life spins into a frenzy
[Chorus]
Help, I'm steppin' into the Twilight Zone
Place is a madhouse, feels like being cloned
My beacon's been moved under moon and star
Where am I to go now that I've gone too far?
Help, I'm steppin' into the Twilight Zone
Place is a madhouse, feels like being cloned
My beacon's been moved under moon and star
Where am I to go now that I've gone too far?
...
@#68 ... **** First Photo of Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor After His Arrest (via Reuters) ***** ...
Related ...
How Reuters captured the photo of former Prince Andrew leaving custody
www.reuters.com
... Slumped in the back seat of his Range Rover, a visibly shaken man once referred to as the "Playboy Prince" stares ahead of him as the car leaves Aylsham police station in Norfolk, England.
The photo, taken by Reuters photographer Phil Noble, went viral when it was published late on Thursday.
It shows Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor, the younger brother of King Charles, after he was released from police custody following a day of questioning over allegations he sent confidential government documents to convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.
When news that Mountbatten-Windsor had been arrested broke early on Thursday, Manchester-based Noble began the six-hour drive south to Norfolk.
Journalists knew the former prince had been arrested in Norfolk -- the county that is home to the royal Sandringham estate where he resides. Since officers from Thames Valley Police -- covering southeast England -- were questioning him, there were potentially 20 or more police stations where he could have been held.
Following a tip, Noble headed to the police station in the historic market town of Aylsham.
Not much was going on, Noble said. There were a couple of other members of the media there, including Reuters video journalist Marissa Davison.
Six or seven hours went by. Darkness fell. Still, nothing was happening. It seemed like this was the wrong station -- after all, it was well over an hour's drive from Mountbatten-Windsor's home.
The team of two Reuters journalists decided to book rooms at a hotel. Noble packed up and started heading down the road towards it.
Minutes later, he got a call from Davison. Mountbatten-Windsor's cars had arrived. ...
@#7
I have a generator that can power the essentials -- furnace, refrigerator, a couple of lights, and a laptop.
I bought it in 2009, and have used it twice since then ...