I follow this data guy for PA polls, who I think is pretty good, and this is his PA data from earlier today:

Joshua Smithley
@blockedfreq
... Pennsylvania - 2024 General Election - Day 21

" 1,777,019 votes cast

" DEM: 990,189 - 82.5% returned
" GOP: 583,791 - 81.6% returned
IND: 203,039 - 72.0% returned

VBM Splits: " 55.7% / " 32.9% / 11.4%

Ballot Edge: "+406,398
" Return Edge: "+0.9

WI data is from: Early Ballots Returned (or Person voted early in person) data as of 10:43 am on 11/1/2024

Maybe they'll update it soon.

$69 Oh, sorry, that was the Nationwide category I was looking at not WI.

Incorrect Gal. www.l2-data.com
#68 | Posted by Bluewaffles

They literally just updated the data while I was looking at it. When I went first went to the site, the data was as of some time on 11/1/2024. Now it is:

Early Ballots Returned (or Person voted early in person) data as of 6:31 pm on 11/3/2024

It looks like Ds and Rs are basically tie in the early vote. And Ds have a slight advantage in the All category.

Hey Rcade ... you might wanna check the Wisconsin early voting data ;D
#65 | Posted by Bluewaffles

Here's what I found on a quick search:

WISCONSIN - EARLY VOTING RESULTS
includes mail-in (40%) & early in person (60%)

" Democrat: 455,167
" Republican: 334,682
Other: 548,878

Strong economy but not for everyone. Working class people are still getting the short end of the stick. Tim Walz had a great conversation with some of them in PA:

NEW: We organized a sit down with Tim Walz and undecided working class voters in Erie, PA.

3 voted for Trump in 2020. 1 has never voted before.

After the conversation, their minds were changed.

FTA:

According to news station WHIO, John Rodgers, a Clark County Sheriff's Office Lieutenant for more than 20 years, made several Facebook posts that brought a lot of scrutiny to himself and the Clark County Sheriff's Office.

In another post, according to WHIO, Rodgers wrote that people would need to "provide proof of who you voted for" before rendering aid.

Today in NC:

Trump in North Carolina: "You have one of the best of all right here, David McCormick."

David McCormick is running for the US Senate in Pennsylvania

DonOLD like Selzer before he suddenly doesn't:

Taylor Popielarz
@TaylorPopielarz
As Trump and his campaign criticize Iowa pollster @jaselzer, I dug through my archives and found Trump saying this last December:

"...they have a great pollster, actually, a very powerful pollster, very good, talented pollster. Of course, if my numbers were bad, I wouldn't be saying that. I'd say, They have a terrible pollster. She doesn't know' " she, it's a she " 'she doesn't know what she's doing.' But no, she's very good."

"I don't think most normal people would watch that clip and say he's --------- a microphone, especially since it's not even in the holder."

The thing that makes me thinking he was pretending to------- the michrophone stand is the way he opens his mouth while he is bobbing up and down.

It really goes back to Reagan: "Government is not the solution to our problem; government is the problem."

"In 2024, Pew polled Democrats and Republicans on their views of various government agencies. The net favorability gap between Democrats and Republicans on the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention was a stunning 92 points; on the Environmental Protection Agency, it was 80 points; on the Department of Education, it was 73 points. Fine, all those are liberal-coded agencies. But it keeps going: a 62-point gap for the F.B.I., a 60-point difference on the Department of Transportation; a 37-point gap on the Department of Homeland Security. In all of these cases - yes, even the Department of Homeland Security - it was Democrats reporting far more favorable feelings."

Very different from what people felt about FDR, for example, when people felt he had helped save the country and the world and lined the streets weeping when he died, just as they did when Lincold was killed.

Turning the page is within our grasp but only on one condidtion, Vote, vote, vote!:

Rex Huppke
@RexHuppke
I fear confidence, and so should everybody else. Election Day turnout needs to be massive, and no one should assume this thing can't still go either way, because it absolutely can.

God, I hope so:

From Letters from an American:

Yesterday, in Time magazine, Eric Cortellessa explained that the electoral strategy of the Trump campaign was to get men who don't usually vote, particularly young ones, to turn out for Trump. If they could do that, and at the same time hold steady the support of white women, Trump could win the election. So Trump has focused on podcasts followed by young men and on imitating the patterns of professional wrestling performances. . . .

Rather than keeping women in his camp, Trump's strategy of reaching out to his base to turn out low-propensity voters, especially young men, has alienated them. That alienation has come on top of the Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization decision that overturned Roe v. Wade, the 1973 Supreme Court decision that recognized the constitutional right to abortion.

Early voting in Pennsylvania showed that women sent in 56% of the early ballots, compared to 43% for men. Seniors--people who remember a time before Roe v. Wade--also showed a significant split. Although the parties had similar numbers of registrants, nearly 59% of those over 65 voting early were Democrats. That pattern holds across all the battleground states: women's early voting outpaces men's by about 10 points. While those numbers are certainly not definitive--no one knows how these people voted, and much could change over the next few days--the enthusiasm of those two groups was notable....

In Flagstaff, Arizona, today, Democratic presidential candidate and Minnesota governor Tim Walz told a crowd: "I kind of have a feeling that women all across this country, from every walk of life, from either party, are going to send a loud and clear message to Donald Trump next Tuesday, November 5, whether he likes it or not."

"Look, it's decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, the Supreme Court majority wrote the following--and with all due respect, Justices--'Women are not without electoral or political power.' You're about to realize just how much you were right about that."

- Biden SOTU, March 2024.

Three days before the election of my lifetime and Harris is going on SNL. There's her base. Drunken, drugged up Gen Z losers and low hanging fruit that vote. Meet Gaslighter, take your pick
#19 | Posted by gracieamazed

You do know that Trump was a reality TV star, right? And that he appeared several times on SNL (see above posts fo links).

Trump on SNL

Trump on SNL:

Kyle Garner
@KyleGarnerMO

My biggest takeaway from the Iowa poll: women 65+, the ones who lived in America before Roe, before women could even have their own bank accounts, know exactly what Trump and Republicans are promising. They know the stakes and they're going 2:1 for Harris.

Oh, sorry, wrong thread!

Jonathan Martin
@jmart

The Selzer story is not, necessarily, a Harris lead in Iowa

It is Harris leading by 20 points among women in a heavily white, Midwestern state.

Taniel
@Taniel

Here's what I'd say about why people care about the Selzer poll, besides the mythologizing. In final days of both 2016 & 2020, as polling had Dems in strong shape (well, esp. in 2020), it was the rare sign that something could be amiss in other polling. (1/3)

Extent to which Rust Belt white voters swung to Trump was just not understood before we saw results in 2016, tho Selzer gave a preview. (She also was first to capture IA changed in 2014.) There was this idea in 2020 that had swung back; her poll was clearest cold shower.

But of course: IT'S JUST ONE POLL! It's subject to the same margin of error, can be off in any direction, and in the moment it wasn't clear what they meant.

Same today: IT'S JUST ONE POLL.

But that gets to other thing about Selzer poll: it's clearly uninterested in herding.

BUT ALSO: 2024 polling is so different than 2016 & 2020. Pretty much no pollster shows a snap back in IA & OH. And *that* was the reality check Selzer had offered in the past. So it's just so different this year in terms of what reality check it may offer, even mythologized one.

emptywheel
@emptywheel

Male pollster: Tie game, we've adjusted for Trump
Male pollster: Tie game, we've adjusted for Trump
Male pollster: Tie game, we've adjusted for Trump
Male pollster: Tie game, we've adjusted for Trump
Ann Selzer: Have you boys heard of Dobbs?

If I am correct Seltzer's polls are highly respected
#3 | Posted by truthhurts

She has a good track record:

Matthew Klein
@MattKleinOnline
Final Selzer poll findings (and the actual result)

2022 Senate: R+12 (R+12)
2020 President: R+7 (R+8)
2020 Senate: R+4 (R+7)
2018 Governor: D+2 (R+3)
2016 President: R+7 (R+9)
2014 Senate: R+7 (R+8)
2012 President: D+5 (D+6)

About as good as any pollster gets.

If Iowa is this close I have to believe #Roevember is playing a role.

#4 | Posted by snoofy

Hey Snoofy, welcome back. Are you still in PA? If so, what's the vibe?