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Sunday, April 20, 2025

Toronto is also becoming a popular sanctuary. Just as during the Vietnam War, when many American families, including that of the urbanist Jane Jacobs, flocked north, today the continent's fourth-largest city is welcoming disaffected U.S. academics and scientists. Once known as the leader of the free world, these days America feels more "like 1933 in Germany," says Marci Shore, a professor of Eastern European intellectual history, who is leaving Yale University for the University of Toronto's Munk School of Global Affairs & Public Policy.


Saturday, April 19, 2025

Trump's evangelical supporters are suddenly alarmed about the administration's deportation policies. Why? Because Latino Christians might start getting deported: "Up to 32,000 [pastors] may be deported unless the Trump administration does something urgently. read more


Friday, April 18, 2025

President Trump announced Thursday that he has picked Fox News contributor Mark Levin, South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster (R) and other conservative allies to serve on a "revamped" Homeland Security Advisory Council (HSAC). "Under Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem's leadership, HSAC will work hard on developing new Policies and Strategies that will help us secure our Border, deport Illegal Criminal Thugs, stop the flow of Fentanyl and other illegal drugs that are killing our Citizens, and MAKE AMERICA SAFE AGAIN," Trump wrote in a post on Truth Social, saying the HSAC "is comprised of Top Experts in their field, who are highly respected by their peers."


Wednesday, April 16, 2025

Hungary's parliament on Monday passed an amendment to the constitution that allows the government to ban public events by LGBTQ+ communities ... read more


A federal judge said in an order Wednesday that he has found probable cause to hold the Trump administration in contempt over deportation flights that it sent to El Salvador. U.S. District Judge James Boasberg found "the Government's actions on that day demonstrate a willful disregard for its Order, sufficient for the Court to conclude that probable cause exists to find the Government in criminal contempt."


Comments

A week after Donald Trump shocked the world by imposing punitive tariffs on America's trading partners, he shocked it again today when he announced a ninety-day pause on the biggest duties against most countries"notably excepting China, among a handful of others"while leaving in place a ten-per-cent across-the-board levy.

The Administration tried to spin the midday move, which sent stocks rocketing upward, as an example of the President's dealmaking prowess, claiming that the tariffs had inspired new trade deals with many countries. But the reality seems to be that Trump caved in the face of alarming disruptions in the huge market for U.S. Treasury bonds, which the American government uses to finance itself.

Trump's announcement of his "reciprocal" tariffs last week, which weren't reciprocal at all, sent the markets into turmoil. The White House seemed to have steeled itself against an adverse reaction in the stock market, even as, by Wednesday morning, the total market had fallen by about twenty per cent from its high. What really spooked financial commentators"and Trump himself, as he conceded later on Wednesday, speaking outside the White House"was the turbulence in the bond market, where yields spiked on Monday and Tuesday.

A big sudden rise in bond yields equates to a big sudden fall in bond prices"which can be a sign that some financial institutions are in distress and being forced to sell at any price. On Tuesday, reports emerged that the source of this trouble might be the "basis trade," a process in which hedge funds borrow gobs of money to profit on the tiny differences in price between Treasuries and derivative securities, contracts designed to replicate the performance of these same Treasuries. When bond prices move unexpectedly, basis traders can face big losses and be subjected to margin calls, forcing them to raise cash by selling some of their portfolio. And that selloff, in turn, forces prices even lower.

It's not entirely clear that this was the actual cause of the rising yields in the bond market, but by this morning Lawrence Summers, a former Treasury Secretary, warned online that "developments in the last 24 hours suggest we may be headed for serious financial crisis wholly induced by US government tariff policy." The current Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, himself a former hedge-fund manager, initially shrugged off the threat. But by Wednesday afternoon Bessent was spinning the capitulation as best he could. Referring to Trump, he said, "It took great courage for him to stay the course."

If that was meant as an inside joke, Bessent didn't let on. More likely, he was trying to assuage his boss's bruised ego. In the end, the markets forced Trump to do something sensible"announce a timeout"but a lot of damage has already been done to 401(k) plans, business planning, consumer confidence, and faith in the U.S. government. None of these things will be repaired easily or quickly.

John Cassidy
Cassidy has been a New Yorker staff writer since 1995, and writes The Financial Page, a column about economics and politics.

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