www.atlanticcouncil.org

China has been preparing for this conflict for a long time, including by diversifying its trade away from the West. Chinese exports to the United States account for 14.7 percent of China's total in 2024, down from 19.2 percent in 2018, while overseas shipments to Southeast Asian and Belt-and-Road countries have grown, according to Beijing.

"China will never accept this. If the US insists on its own way, China will fight to the end."

Almost exactly one year ago, in discussions I had in Beijing on the prospect of a US-China trade war under a future US president, officials repeatedly mentioned a secret weapon they held ready to wield: the ability of China and its people to "eat bitterness" or chiku.

What does that mean? Chiku is regularly raised by Chinese to describe their ability to endure hardships during difficult times, including in service of a supposed greater national goal.

Beijing too has strategically lessened its reliance on important commodities from the United States, such as soybeans, the majority of which are now bought from Brazil, and it has pushed for greater food self-reliance. "We have been engaged in a trade war with the US for eight years and have accumulated rich experience in this struggle,"

With Beijing digging in, the question for Washington becomes: How much bitterness are Americans prepared to swallow in return?

Ruh-roh, me boys!