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Friday, April 18, 2025

A federal judge has blocked the Biden administration from deporting noncitizens to countries not listed in their removal orders without first giving them a chance to raise safety concerns. The ruling requires the government to notify affected individuals and provide at least 15 days for them to contest their deportation if they fear danger. The judge said deporting people without this process could lead to serious harm, such as torture or death, and violates basic legal protections. The order applies to all noncitizens with final removal orders.


Friday, April 04, 2025

"ChatGPT, Gemini, Grok, and Claude all recommend the same 'nonsense' tariff calculation." read more


Wednesday, March 26, 2025

Bradley Bartell, a Wisconsin resident and Trump voter, is considering leaving the United States after his wife, Camila Muoz, was detained by federal immigration officials[1]. Muoz, a Peruvian citizen, overstayed her visa while in the process of obtaining permanent residency[1]. Bartell expressed to Newsweek that he is "seriously thinking about moving to Peru" if his wife is deported, though he acknowledges the difficulty this would pose for their 12-year-old son[1]. This situation highlights the broader impact of the Trump administration's extensive deportation initiatives, which have expanded to include nonviolent offenders and those without gang affiliations[1]. read more


Tuesday, March 04, 2025

His administration is suddenly changing tactics after a federal judge ruled that its mass firings of probationary workers were probably illegal. read more


Wednesday, February 26, 2025

On February 3, 2025, President Donald Trump signed an executive order establishing a sovereign wealth fund (SWF) for the United States, aiming to create one of the world's largest such funds. Given the nation's $36 trillion debt, the administration is exploring funding options, including the potential sale of federal public lands. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated plans to "monetize the asset side of the U.S. balance sheet," referring to national parks, public lands, and natural resources as potential assets. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum estimated these federal lands could be worth up to $200 trillion. This approach has raised concerns about the preservation of public lands and their traditional uses, such as recreation and conservation. read more


Comments

FISHPAW:

The claim that "Trump was deprived of his due process rights under the constitution in his NY trial" is not fully accurate based on available information.

Due Process and Jury Instructions:
- In the New York trial, Judge Juan M. Merchan instructed the jury that they must reach a unanimous verdict on Trump's guilt regarding the key elements of falsifying business records and intent to conceal a crime. The jury was allowed some flexibility only in deciding which specific unlawful means Trump used, but unanimity was required on the core charges. This means the jury had to agree unanimously that Trump committed the crime, preserving his Sixth Amendment rights to a fair trial and due process[3].
- Some claims circulating on social media suggested the jury did not need to be unanimous, but these have been debunked as misrepresentations of the judge's instructions[3].
- A legal analysis noted that there were concerns about the jury instructions potentially being legally defective, which could implicate Sixth Amendment rights, but the official court documents do not conclude that Trump was deprived of due process outright; rather, motions and appeals are part of the ongoing legal process[2][4].

While there are legal arguments and motions challenging aspects of the trial procedure, the official judge's instructions required a unanimous verdict on the essential elements of the charges, meaning Trump's constitutional right to due process was upheld in that regard. Assertions that he was deprived of due process rights in the New York trial are therefore inaccurate or at least not supported by the court's instructions and rulings as of now[3][4].

Citations:
[1]
www.nbcnews.com
[2] media.aflegal.org
[3] apnews.com
[4] www.nycourts.gov
[5] www.nytimes.com
[6] www.supremecourt.gov
[7] www.aclu.org
[8] thehill.com
[9] www.rollingstone.com
[10] www.npr.org

(con't)

Vaccine Efficacy and Safety

The claim that "the vaccine didn't work or stop transmission, but killed a half million Americans" contains multiple inaccuracies.

Regarding transmission, a rapid review of 43 studies found "evidence across 13 transmission studies (all observational, all variants) that fully vaccinated index cases transmitted COVID-19 to their contacts less than unvaccinated index cases"[4]. For example, there was a 62% reduction in transmission to high-risk contacts from fully vaccinated individuals with the Pfizer vaccine compared to unvaccinated individuals[4].

The review also found that "when looking at the vaccination status of contacts rather than index cases, there was an 80.0% reduction in COVID-19 transmission from index cases (of any vaccination status) to fully vaccinated compared with unvaccinated other household members"[4].

Concerning the claim about vaccines causing deaths, a fact-check directly addressed similar assertions, finding them false. While excess mortality data did show 1.1 million more deaths than expected historically during the pandemic period, attributing these to vaccines is unsupported. According to the data source itself, "We don't currently have information regarding cause of death to determine what caused the excess deaths"[6]. Public health experts attribute most excess deaths to COVID-19 infections themselves and other pandemic-related factors, not vaccines.

The Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) is often cited in such claims, but as the CDC explicitly states: "A report to VAERS does not mean that a vaccine caused an adverse event"[5]. The system accepts all reports regardless of causality, serving as an early warning system rather than confirmation of vaccine effects.

Comparative Outcomes in Vaccinated vs. Unvaccinated

The claim that "the vaccinated are 20% more likely to get COVID-19, and 6x as likely to be hospitalized, and are over-represented in death statistics" is contradicted by research evidence.

A study examining real-world outcomes found that "ED encounters/hospitalizations related to COVID-19 were 96% lower in fully vaccinated patients compared to unvaccinated patients"[7]. This demonstrates substantially reduced risk of severe outcomes among vaccinated individuals, directly contradicting the claim of increased hospitalization risk.

The scientific evidence consistently shows that vaccination reduces COVID-19 severity, hospitalization risk, and mortality compared to being unvaccinated.

(con't below)

You guys are ------- brainwashed or retarded.
#36 | Posted by HeliumRat

The irony in your post is absolutely rife. And yes, I just looked ALL of it up:

Evaluating COVID-19 Prevention Claims: A Scientific Assessment

This post examines a series of claims about COVID-19 mitigation measures and vaccines, systematically evaluating each assertion against available scientific evidence. The statements in question contain several inaccuracies and mischaracterizations about masks, social distancing, lockdowns, and vaccines that contradict the scientific consensus documented in peer-reviewed research.

Mask Efficacy

The claim that "masks don't work" is not fully supported by the evidence. While one meta-analysis did suggest that "the efficacy of COVID-19 prevention did not statistically significantly differ with using surgical masks and using no face masks"[1], this represents just one study with specific parameters. It's important to note that this finding was limited to surgical masks rather than all mask types (such as N95 respirators), and contradicts the broader body of research on respiratory protection during the pandemic.

Social Distancing Effectiveness

The assertion that "social distancing was science fiction" is directly contradicted by research evidence. A prospective study of 2,120 participants found that individuals' social distancing behavior strongly predicted whether they contracted COVID-19 over the following four months. Specifically, "an increase of one SD on the virtual behavior measure of social distancing was associated with roughly a 20% reduction in the odds of contracting COVID-19"[2]. This relationship remained consistent regardless of whether researchers considered only laboratory-confirmed cases or also included suspected cases.

The study authors concluded: "The findings offer clear support regarding the efficacy of practicing social distancing...What the individual does matters. It surely matters at the 'collective' level, reducing transmission within the community-the very aim of officials' social distancing directives and pleas. However, engaging in social distancing also carries with it clear and relatively immediate benefits for those who comply, leading to a reduced likelihood of contracting the disease for that specific individual"[2].

Lockdown Impact

The claim that "lockdowns were worse than useless" contradicts research findings. A comprehensive study found that "lockdowns at the beginning of COVID-19 pandemic reduced the spread of infection by an estimated 56%"[3]. The same research estimated that "if all governors did not issue any lockdowns until April 23, 2020, the number of cases would have been five times higher by April 30, 2020"[3].

While the study acknowledged economic tradeoffs-including impacts on GDP (-5.4%), employment (-2%), consumer satisfaction (-2%), and consumer spending (-7.5%)-it demonstrated that lockdowns were effective at their primary purpose of reducing disease spread[3]. This represents a nuanced cost-benefit relationship rather than lockdowns being "worse than useless."

(con't below)

However, the characterization that "every measure" is positive overstates the case. The economy as a whole contracted as measured by real GDP, which is generally considered the broadest measure of economic activity[3]. Additionally, inflation indicators showed concerning upward movement, with the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increasing 3.6%, up from 2.4% in the previous quarter[1][2].

Import Dynamics and GDP Calculation

The statement claims "GDP number was suppressed by 5% due to inventory builds on imports." This claim contains elements of truth but requires clarification.

According to the data, net exports did indeed contribute negatively to GDP growth at -4.83 percentage points[4], which is close to the "5%" figure mentioned. The BEA specifically notes that the decrease in real GDP "primarily reflected an increase in imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP"[1].

The BEA explains that within imports, "the increase primarily reflected an increase in imported goods, led by consumer goods, except food and automotive (mainly medicinal, dental, and pharmaceutical preparations, including vitamins); and by capital goods, except automotive (mainly computers, peripherals, and parts)"[2].

Regarding inventory investment, the BEA notes: "The largest contributor to the increase in investment was private inventory investment, led by an increase in wholesale trade (notably, drugs and sundries). The estimates of private inventory investment were based primarily on Census Bureau inventory book value data and a BEA adjustment in March to account for a notable increase in imports"[2].

Future Reversal Claims

The statement asserts that the negative impact on GDP "reverses in the coming months." None of the search results provide forward-looking projections or evidence to support this claim of future reversal[1][2][3][4]. Economic forecasting involves significant uncertainty, and the available data focuses on reporting past performance rather than making predictions.

Government Spending Impact

The statement correctly identifies that cuts to government spending contributed to the GDP decline. Government consumption expenditures contributed -0.25 percentage points to GDP growth[4]. The BEA specifies that "the decrease in government spending reflected a decrease in federal government spending (led by defense consumption expenditures) that was partly offset by an increase in state and local government spending"[2].

Whether this decline in government spending is "a good thing" as claimed is a normative judgment that involves economic, fiscal, and political considerations beyond what can be evaluated with purely economic data.

#5

Analysis of U.S. Economic Statement: GDP Decline in Q1 2025

The recently released U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) data provides important context for evaluating claims about the Q1 2025 economic performance. The statement in question contains several assertions about the U.S. economy that require careful examination against official economic data. This analysis will evaluate each claim using the latest GDP advance estimate and related economic indicators.

Overview of Q1 2025 GDP Performance

The advance estimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis shows that U.S. real GDP decreased at an annual rate of 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025, following a 2.4% increase in the fourth quarter of 2024[1]. This represents the first contraction in the U.S. economy in three years[3]. The decrease primarily reflected an increase in imports (which subtract from GDP) and a decrease in government spending, partially offset by increases in investment, consumer spending, and exports[1].

The component breakdown reveals a more nuanced picture than the headline figure suggests:
- Personal consumption expenditures contributed +1.21 percentage points (though down from Q4 2024)[4]
- Gross private domestic investment contributed +3.60 percentage points (up from Q4 2024)[4]
- Net exports of goods and services contributed -4.83 percentage points (down from Q4)[4]
- Government consumption expenditures contributed -0.25 percentage points[4]

Examining the "Real Economy" Components

The statement claims that "every measure which points to the real economy is green." This assertion requires careful scrutiny against the actual data.

While the overall GDP figure was negative (-0.3%), several underlying components did show positive growth. Consumer spending increased, contributing positively to GDP growth despite a deceleration from the previous quarter[1][2]. The BEA reports that "real final sales to private domestic purchasers," which combines consumer spending and gross private fixed investment, increased by 3.0% in Q1, slightly higher than the 4th quarter's 2.9%[2].

The statement that undocumented immigrants "suppress wages, drain social programs meant for citizens, increase crime, and destroy the public schools" is not supported by the available evidence. Here is a breakdown of each claim based on current research:

Wages
- Undocumented immigrants tend to earn lower wages than legal immigrants and native-born workers with similar skills, largely due to weaker bargaining power and limited job opportunities, not because they drive down wages for everyone else[6][9].
- There is little evidence that undocumented immigrants broadly suppress wages for native-born workers. In fact, mass deportation would shrink the U.S. economy and reduce jobs, as immigrants and natives often have different skills and are not direct substitutes in the labor market[1][2].

Social Programs
- Undocumented immigrants pay billions in federal, state, and local taxes, including contributions to Social Security and Medicare, programs from which they are generally ineligible to benefit[1][3][4].
- Multiple studies show that undocumented immigrants are net contributors to these programs and, in many states, pay more in taxes than they receive in public services[2][4].

Crime
- Research consistently finds that undocumented immigrants have lower crime rates than native-born Americans. For example, their homicide conviction rate is 14% below that of native-born Americans, and their total criminal conviction rate is 41% lower[7].
- The claim that undocumented immigrants increase crime is not supported by data from states with large undocumented populations[7].

Public Schools
- There is no evidence in the provided research that undocumented immigrants "destroy" public schools. While children of undocumented immigrants do attend public schools, the broader economic contributions of their families (including tax payments) help support public services, including education[1][4].

Economic Impact
- Undocumented immigrants are vital to several key sectors, such as agriculture, construction, and hospitality. Removing them would cause significant labor shortages and economic disruption[1][4].
- Their consumer spending and entrepreneurship also sustain local economies and support jobs for U.S. citizens[1][4].

SCOTTS's statement is inaccurate and not supported by current economic or criminological research. Undocumented immigrants are, on balance, contributors to the U.S. economy and social programs, do not increase crime, and are essential to several industries. The suggestion to "import all of Africa" is a rhetorical exaggeration and does not reflect the actual, evidence-based impacts of undocumented immigration on the United States[1][2][4][7].

Citations:
[1]
www.americanimmigrationcouncil.org
[2] www.newamericaneconomy.org
[3] cmsny.org
[4] www.ilr.cornell.edu
[5] budget.house.gov
[6] econofact.org
[7] www.congress.gov

Swallow it.

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