Wednesday, October 09, 2024

Milton Is the Hurricane That Scientists Were Dreading

As Hurricane Milton exploded from a Category 1 storm into a Category 5 storm over the course of 12 hours yesterday, climate scientists and meteorologists were stunned. In a way, Milton is exactly the type of storm that scientists have been warning could happen; Michael Wehner, a climate scientist at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, in California, called it shocking but not surprising.

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A hurricane forms from multiple variables, and in Milton, the variables have come together to form a nightmare. The storm is gaining considerable energy thanks to high sea-surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico, which is far hotter than usual. And that energy translates into higher wind speeds. Milton is also taking up moisture from the very humid atmosphere, which, as a rule, can hold 7 percent more water vapor for every degree-Celsius increase in temperature. Plus, the air is highly unstable and can therefore rise more easily, which allows the hurricane to form and maintain its shape. And thanks to La Nia, there isn't much wind shear - the wind's speed and direction are fairly uniform at different elevations - "so the storm can stay nice and vertically stacked," Kim Wood, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Arizona, told me. "All of that combined is making the storm more efficient at using the energy available." In other words, the storm very efficiently became a major danger.

That perfect combination - of hot seas, humid air, and little wind shear - is being aided by Milton's path through the Gulf of Mexico's western part, which hasn't seen much major storm activity yet this season. Wind speeds inside Milton picked up by about 90 miles an hour in a single day, intensifying faster than any other storm on record besides Hurricanes Wilma in 2005 and Felix in 2007. Climate scientists have worried for a while now that climate change could produce storms that intensify faster and reach higher peak intensities, given an extra boost by climate change. Milton is doing just that.

Only after Milton passes will scientists try to account for the ways that climate change made it more horrific than it might otherwise have been - perhaps still a major storm, but not so intense and so fast that it stopped a veteran meteorologist cold. And the world is expected to keep warming dramatically over the coming century; storms such as Milton are a preview of the types that will become more common.

The human stories lurking behind all the science tell that many people who looked at Florida as paradise are saying that Milton is their last call if indeed it upturns their lives yet again in the aftermath of Irma and Helene. As it is now, entire regions hit by hurricanes years ago still haven't fully rebuilt and are again facing imminent destruction of what's left.

I don't think people are seeing what appears to be obvious: If these types of superstorms continue to target the Florida peninsula at the frequency we're currently experiencing, millions will have no recourse but to relocate out of state because the cost of property/flood insurance and the continual cycle of rebuilding/storm, rebuilding/storm will make living there unaffordable for the non-wealthy.

#1 | Posted by tonyroma at 2024-10-09 10:31 AM

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