Monday, November 04, 2024

Could Harris Lose the Popular Vote and Still Win?

Could Harris Lose the Popular Vote and Still Win the Electoral College?

It has been an article of faith among political operatives for years that a Democrat needs to win the popular vote by about 3 points to win the Electoral College, which tilts toward the Republicans due to the disproportionate effect of there being more medium-sized red states than there are medium-sized blue states. Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by 2.1%, but fell short in the Electoral College. But this year, there are signs that things could be different. Is it possible that Kamala Harris could win the popular vote by a very small margin, or even lose it, and still get at least 270 electoral votes? Maybe.

Posted by Hans at 06:47 PM | 5 COMMENTS | permalink

Comments

For eberly (and others), who asked about my 3% of popular vote to win the Electoral College statement*:

Could Harris Lose the Popular Vote and Still Win the Electoral College?

It has been an article of faith among political operatives for years that a Democrat needs to win the popular vote by about 3 points to win the Electoral College, which tilts toward the Republicans due to the disproportionate effect of there being more medium-sized red states than there are medium-sized blue states.

Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by 2.1%, but fell short in the Electoral College. But this year, there are signs that things could be different. Is it possible that Kamala Harris could win the popular vote by a very small margin, or even lose it, and still get at least 270 electoral votes? Maybe.

* I emailed the editors of the site last week, and they posted this article today.

#1 | Posted by Hans at 2024-11-04 06:52 PM

Possible, but not likely she'll lose the popular vote. A Republican candidate hasn't won the popular vote since 2004, and that was W because of 9/11 and terrierists fear.

#2 | Posted by AMERICANUNITY at 2024-11-05 12:24 AM

that was W because of 9/11 and terrierists fear.

Don't forget gay marriage referendums on multiple state ballots too. It drew a number of AA voters over to the GOP side, especially in Ohio before it became solid red, and energized evangelicals everywhere.

#3 | Posted by tonyroma at 2024-11-05 12:28 AM

@#3 ... Don't forget gay marriage referendums on multiple state ballots too ...

Yeah, that was Mr Karl Rove's tactic for getting the GOP supporters out to vote back then.

Are the Democrats using a similar tactic regarding abortion this election cycle?


#4 | Posted by LampLighter at 2024-11-05 01:08 AM

With red states showing more purple this cycle, I think it's more likely we
See the opposite and with a larger disparity than 2020.

If she loses, she'll probably have a larger margin in popular vote than Biden did.

#5 | Posted by jpw at 2024-11-05 02:28 AM

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