Nate Silver, Silver Bulletin: Zohran Mamdani doesn't quite have the mayor's race locked up, but he's a heavy favorite unless there's an October Surprise.
Zohran is ahead based on younger voters, college graduates, and residents of Brooklyn and Manhattan -- basically what you might think of as the New York Times-reading portion of the electorate. While New York is more politically diverse than you might think -- having been a site of considerable Trump overperformance last year -- that's probably enough to get the job done.
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