Tuesday, April 21, 2026

This Is Where a Blue Wave Has to Start

We and others have talked a lot about a potential blue wave, where the Democrats win dozens of House seats.

Posted by A_Friend at 02:33 PM | 20 COMMENTS | permalink

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TOMORROW: Virginians will decide whether to approve a redistricting plan that could hand Democrats four more seats in Congress in 2026. At stake in this months-long battle? Control of the U.S. House, the ability to check Trump and a broader fight against GOP map-drawing in battleground states.

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-- Democracy Docket (@democracydocket.com) Apr 20, 2026 at 9:01 PM

Comments

snip ...

To a first approximation, Democrats should first shore up their own seats, then go after the low-hanging fruit next, meaning the Republican-held districts with a PVI of D+x, then EVEN, then R+1, then R+2, etc. The table below lists all 218 Republican-held seats by PVI. The second column gives the number of districts at each PVI. For example, there are four Republican-held districts that are R+1 and 11 at R+5. The last column gives the cumulative number of flips assuming they fall in order. So, for example, if the Democrats win all the Republican-held seats from D+3 to R+5, they flip 39 seats.

#1 | Posted by A_Friend at 2026-04-20 02:14 PM

snip ...

The bigger the wave, the deeper the Democrats go into Republican territory. Of course, the PVI isn't the whole story. Candidate quality can play a role, as well as local issues, and how good a fit the incumbent is for the district. Still, this is a basis. If Democrats overperform by 5 or 6 points or more in all the soft Republican districts, they could flip a few dozen seats.

#2 | Posted by A_Friend at 2026-04-20 02:15 PM

How about start with this:

Democrats try to "fix" health care " costs explode, quality decreases. Democrats try to "fix" homelessness " $billions$ vanish, homelessness increases. Democrats try to "fix" education " scores plunge, costs rise... See the problem? Everything they do is a money- laundering SHAM.

Can the libbie dem politicians do anything right???

#3 | Posted by MSgt at 2026-04-20 02:50 PM

#3 Those are not starting points.

Those are straw arguments with no basis in fact.

You're welcome.

#4 | Posted by A_Friend at 2026-04-20 02:51 PM

Can the libbie dem politicians do anything right???
#3 | POSTED BY MSG

We'll see when they retake Congress in November.

Step one is the impeachment of Donald Trump.

#5 | Posted by ClownShack at 2026-04-20 02:52 PM

Those are straw arguments with no basis in fact.
#4 | POSTED BY A_FRIEND

You can't expect MSG to know any facts.

He gets all his information from Facebook memes.

Republicans really are the dumbest people in America.

#6 | Posted by ClownShack at 2026-04-20 02:53 PM

#6 Dumbest and most clueless.

Such a combination, eh, Clown? :-)

#7 | Posted by A_Friend at 2026-04-20 02:58 PM

It's staggering how many of them there.

They do all vote in block for republicans.

#8 | Posted by ClownShack at 2026-04-20 03:10 PM

How do the Dems get some them some of That?

If the cretins vote as a bloc they can defeat a disorganized rabble of Smart Guys and they know it.

That's Trump's Superpower, Organize the Morons to vote for the Criminals.

The Dems don't have the Juice.

They are too scattered by Scruples and divisions.

Where is the Democratic Trump?

#9 | Posted by Effeteposer at 2026-04-20 04:22 PM

In your mom's bed, you stupid Russian ----.

#10 | Posted by LegallyYourDead at 2026-04-20 06:24 PM

The blue wave is wholly predicated on Trump fatigue. That's it.

#11 | Posted by BellRinger at 2026-04-20 10:33 PM

#11 So?

#12 | Posted by A_Friend at 2026-04-20 10:35 PM

Getting Trump out is Great. Getting Republicans out is Great.

What is the Democratic Party about other than being, Not Trump?

The Trump Cult still Defines the Agenda by Setting an Overton Window at Nazi levels of Normalcy.

The whole game is more Exploitative now.

The President has Monarch like Powers.

Even Rational Men get Stupid with enough JUICE.

The American President is Too Powerful.

Any American President.

Congress and the Courts need to Step Up and reassert their Proper Perogatives.

Today.

#13 | Posted by Effeteposer at 2026-04-21 02:36 AM

" The American President is Too Powerful.

Any American President.

Congress and the Courts need to Step Up and reassert their Proper Perogatives.

Today.

#13 | POSTED BY EFFETEPOSER AT 2026-04-21 02:36 AM | REPLY"

I mostly disagree with your takes but effing spot on here.

#14 | Posted by BellRinger at 2026-04-21 02:49 AM

" The American President is Too Powerful.
Any American President.
Congress and the Courts need to Step Up and reassert their Proper Perogatives.
Today.
#13 | POSTED BY EFFETEPOSER AT 2026-04-21 02:36 AM | REPLY"
I mostly disagree with your takes but effing spot on here.

#14 | Posted by BellRinger

You voted for him.

#15 | Posted by Sycophant at 2026-04-21 11:54 AM

He was speaking about executive overreach in general, Sycophant, and how congress and the courts haven't done their jobs keeping it in check. Although I blame congress far more than the courts.

#16 | Posted by BellRinger at 2026-04-21 01:05 PM

>Even Rational Men get Stupid with enough JUICE.

Ve must deeny the JUICE.

#17 | Posted by john_savage2 at 2026-04-21 03:31 PM

Hegseth is a POS!

This is the one Rep. Nancy Mace (R-SC) is leaving to run for governor of South Carolina. It is R+6 and the Democrats have about as good a candidate as they will ever get. It is Vice Admiral Nancy Lacore (ret.). Note that she didn't retire voluntarily. Sec. of Defense Pete Hegseth fired her because the idea of a female former helicopter pilot who served 35 years, working her way up to being a three-star admiral in charge of 60,000 sailors, didn't fit his idea of what a "warrior" looks like. Her raising six kids while doing all this didn't impress him, either. She decided sitting around like a potted plant wasn't her thing, so she decided to run for Mace's old seat as a Democrat.

www.electoral-vote.com

#18 | Posted by AMERICANUNITY at 2026-04-21 06:57 PM

BREAKING: After Virginia voters approved the state's Democratic gerrymander, a GOP VA House member who will be losing his seat, staff, and political power cried on live television whining, "It's unfair that Democrats did exactly what we did in 2011!"

#19 | Posted by A_Friend at 2026-04-22 04:51 PM

#3 | Posted by MSgt

The complete lack of awareness these MAGA s*&^bags exhibit is beyond ridiculous.

#20 | Posted by jpw at 2026-04-23 08:25 PM

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