This Is Where a Blue Wave Has to Start

Monday, April 20, 2026

We and others have talked a lot about a potential blue wave, where the Democrats win dozens of House seats. Currently, the House is 214D, 218R, and three vacancies (LaMalfa, Swalwell, and Gonzales). But remember, there is no giant House election, like Hungary had last week. There are 435 separate House elections. To pull off a blue wave, Democrats have to flip a substantial number of Republican-held districts, nearly all of them with a PVI of R+x.

Posted by A_Friend at 02:13 PM | 10 COMMENTS | permalink | Comment on This Entry |

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snip ...

To a first approximation, Democrats should first shore up their own seats, then go after the low-hanging fruit next, meaning the Republican-held districts with a PVI of D+x, then EVEN, then R+1, then R+2, etc. The table below lists all 218 Republican-held seats by PVI. The second column gives the number of districts at each PVI. For example, there are four Republican-held districts that are R+1 and 11 at R+5. The last column gives the cumulative number of flips assuming they fall in order. So, for example, if the Democrats win all the Republican-held seats from D+3 to R+5, they flip 39 seats.

#1 | Posted by A_Friend at 2026-04-20 02:14 PM | Reply

snip ...

The bigger the wave, the deeper the Democrats go into Republican territory. Of course, the PVI isn't the whole story. Candidate quality can play a role, as well as local issues, and how good a fit the incumbent is for the district. Still, this is a basis. If Democrats overperform by 5 or 6 points or more in all the soft Republican districts, they could flip a few dozen seats.

#2 | Posted by A_Friend at 2026-04-20 02:15 PM | Reply

How about start with this:

Democrats try to "fix" health care " costs explode, quality decreases. Democrats try to "fix" homelessness " $billions$ vanish, homelessness increases. Democrats try to "fix" education " scores plunge, costs rise... See the problem? Everything they do is a money- laundering SHAM.

Can the libbie dem politicians do anything right???

#3 | Posted by MSgt at 2026-04-20 02:50 PM | Reply

#3 Those are not starting points.

Those are straw arguments with no basis in fact.

You're welcome.

#4 | Posted by A_Friend at 2026-04-20 02:51 PM | Reply

Can the libbie dem politicians do anything right???
#3 | POSTED BY MSG

We'll see when they retake Congress in November.

Step one is the impeachment of Donald Trump.

#5 | Posted by ClownShack at 2026-04-20 02:52 PM | Reply

Those are straw arguments with no basis in fact.
#4 | POSTED BY A_FRIEND

You can't expect MSG to know any facts.