NOAA's 2025 Atlantic hurricane season forecast: above-normal

More from the article...

... NOAA, the federal agency in charge of weather and climate predictions, releases its seasonal hurricane outlook each spring. It incorporates research from the Climate Prediction Center, the National Hurricane Center and the National Weather Service, all branches of the agency.

Acting NOAA administrator Laura Grimm and National Weather Service director Ken Graham presented the findings during a news conference Thursday morning at the Jefferson Parish Emergency Operations Center in Gretna, Louisiana, just outside of New Orleans. They chose that location to commemorate the victims and destruction of Hurricane Katrina, 20 years after that storm devastated the area. ...

#1 | Posted by LampLighter at 2025-05-22 06:17 PM | Reply

The NOAA release:

NOAA predicts above-normal 2025 Atlantic hurricane season
www.noaa.gov

... NOAA's outlook for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, which goes from June 1 to November 30, predicts a 30% chance of a near-normal season, a 60% chance of an above-normal season, and a 10% chance of a below-normal season.

The agency is forecasting a range of 13 to 19 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, 6-10 are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3-5 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA has a 70% confidence in these ranges. ...

#2 | Posted by LampLighter at 2025-05-22 06:19 PM | Reply

They were dead on last year.

#3 | Posted by REDIAL at 2025-05-22 06:30 PM | Reply

@#3 ... They were dead on last year. ...

Let's check ...

2024 Atlantic hurricane season
en.wikipedia.org

... The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season was a very active and extremely destructive Atlantic hurricane season that became the third-costliest on record, behind only 2017 and 2005. The season featured 18 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes; it was also the first since 2019 to feature multiple Category 5 hurricanes. ...

And NOAA's forecast ...

NOAA forecasts extraordinarily busy Atlantic hurricane season (May 2024)
www.axios.com

... By the numbers: The NOAA is forecasting the season will bring 85% odds of an above normal season, with 17"25 named storms of tropical storm intensity or greater, eight to 13 of which will become hurricanes, and four to seven major hurricanes of Category 3 or greater.

- - - This is the most aggressive hurricane season outlook that NOAA has ever issued for its May outlook, Spinrad said.

- - - The numbers are well above the 1991"2020 average of 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes each season. ...

#4 | Posted by LampLighter at 2025-05-22 06:40 PM | Reply