Last week's New York Times/Siena College polls showing Vice President Kamala Harris leading in three swing states led some Republicans and Democrats to ask the same question: Is this real? At the center of this question is whether the Times/Siena polls have enough voters who supported Donald J. Trump in 2020. The Trump campaign released a memo arguing that our polls would have actually showed a Trump lead if we had weighted the results properly.
True or not, if you look at historicals on polls with Trump he does 3-5% better on actual results depending on what the poll says (true in both 2016 and 2020). Kamala needs to safely lead by +6 in order to ensure victory.
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