According to a Fox News poll of Pennsylvania, Trump is running 5 percentage points behind Harris among voters ages 65 and over, slipping back from the previous month, when he and Harris were tied with that demographic. It's a major shift from 2020, when Trump carried 53 percent of the senior vote in Pennsylvania in a losing effort in the state.

Nationally, a recent ABC News poll found Harris leads among voters over 65 by 5 percentage points - a 10-point swing towards Democrats from 2020, when Trump won voters over 65 by 5 points.

The senior vote is particularly important in five of the seven battleground states - Pennsylvania, Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, and North Carolina - that, according to U.S. Census data, have more residents over the age of 65 than the national average.

According to modeling data shared by a Democratic campaign operative tracking early voting, across the Blue Wall states, Democratic voters over the age of 65 are running 10 to 20 percent ahead of their Republican counterparts with respect to registered turnout.

And the same Democratic modeling shows Black voters over the age of 65 - and in particular older Black women, a core Democratic bloc - are returning ballots at a higher rate than any other demographic group.

But there may also be some silver lining for Harris, even in those metrics: Early voter data also shows women and suburban voters are overperforming so far and voters under 40, who had initially lagged in early voting compared to their registration numbers, are also improving their performance in recent days.