Monday, August 04, 2025

US Economic Data Now in Doubt

When President Trump didn't like the weak jobs numbers that were released on Friday, he fired the person responsible for producing them. It was a move with few precedents in the century-long history of economic statistics in the United States. And for good reason: When political leaders meddle in government data, it rarely ends well.

Posted by qcp at 10:43 AM | 13 COMMENTS | permalink

Comments

More: There is the case of Greece, where the government faked deficit numbers for years, contributing to a debilitating debt crisis that required multiple rounds of bailouts. The country then criminally prosecuted the head of the statistical agency when he insisted on reporting the true figures, further eroding the country's international standing.

There is the case of China, where earlier this century the local authorities manipulated data to hit growth targets mandated by Beijing, forcing analysts and policymakers to turn to alternative measures to gauge the state of the country's economy.

Perhaps most famously, there is the case of Argentina, which in the 2000s and 2010s systematically understated inflation figures to such a degree that the international community eventually stopped relying on the government's data. That loss of faith drove up the country's borrowing costs, worsening a debt crisis that ultimately led to it defaulting on its international obligations.

It is too soon to know whether the United States is on a similar path. But economists and other experts said that Mr. Trump's decision on Friday to fire Erika McEntarfer, the Senate-confirmed head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, was a troubling step in that direction.

Janet L. Yellen, the former Treasury secretary and chair of the Federal Reserve, said the firing was not what is expected from the most advanced economy in the world.

"This is the kind of thing you would only expect to see in a banana republic," Ms. Yellen said.

#1 | Posted by qcp at 2025-08-04 10:43 AM

"This is the kind of thing you would only expect to see in a banana republic," Ms. Yellen said.

#1 | Posted by qcp

That's because we're becoming a banana republic.

How many times do we need to see stuff that "you would only expect to see in a banana republic" before these people start calling it as it actually is - we have become a banana republic.

#2 | Posted by jpw at 2025-08-04 10:49 AM

The only thing "fake" is Trump

#3 | Posted by LegallyYourDead at 2025-08-04 10:55 AM

I'm a day away from exiting the market for a bit.

Anybody else considering that?

#4 | Posted by Wardog at 2025-08-04 12:01 PM

That's because we're becoming a banana republic.

It all started with the FISA warrant/wiretap Obama put on Trump at the bequest of Hillary. I bet there were some Lumpers here claiming they were legit, no one would forge a warrant application.

LOL idiots.

Since then both sides have been sliding to a bad outcome.

#5 | Posted by oneironaut at 2025-08-04 12:10 PM

I did it last October, fearing a Black Swan event.

All I kept was my Asia Fund, and Gold.

After the election, my fear changed to mismanagement. I'm still convinced they'll weaken the dollar, like they did the first year of Trump 1.0. I've gotten back in a little, all in foreign-denominated investments.

I keep a running total of how much that decision has saved me. At this point, it's more than a new Subaru, and less than my first house.

#6 | Posted by Danforth at 2025-08-04 12:13 PM

#5 look at this f*^%ing terard pushing a transparently false narrative ginned up by the Trump administration.

F*^% off, dips*^%.

#7 | Posted by jpw at 2025-08-04 12:21 PM

"When political leaders meddle in government data, it rarely ends well."

It will be different this time!
--Republicans

It's Biden's Fault(TM) that it's not different time time!
--Republicans

#8 | Posted by snoofy at 2025-08-04 12:26 PM

" It all started with the FISA warrant/wiretap Obama put on Trump"

What a riot.

It started when members of Team Trump kept meeting with surveilled Russians, while lying to the American people, claiming ZERO Russian contacts.

Only turncoats believe recording should've STOPPED at that moment.

#9 | Posted by Danforth at 2025-08-04 12:43 PM

PEDO DONNIE LIAR is a ------- pile of ----.

#10 | Posted by LegallyYourDead at 2025-08-05 10:59 AM

#5 | Posted by oneironaut

---- off clown boy.

#11 | Posted by LegallyYourDead at 2025-08-05 11:00 AM

Back on the thread topic ...

... When President Trump didn't like the weak jobs numbers that were released on Friday, he fired the person responsible for producing them ...

I saw the economic advisor, Mr Hasett on TV trying to defend Pres Trumps opinion that the bad job numbers were intentionally rigged (a word he seems to use often) to make him look bad.

Mr Hassett's performances on various news shows the past few days were humorous, at best.

Of course, then there's this ...

White House calls mixed jobs numbers 'weak,' blames Biden (February 2025)
www.cnbc.com

... The White House blamed former President Joe Biden for lower-than-expected job gains in January, after the monthly nonfarm payrolls report showed a mixed picture. ...

National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett added at the White House, "The truth is that we're inheriting a very difficult jobs market because of Joe Biden's terrible policies."

Hassett emphasized that the new report made downward revisions to past months' job figures, asserting that those revelations will influence the trajectory of economic indicators, including the inflation rate.

"I think the big news for us is that it was a weak jobs number and the downward revisions, which we've seen a pattern of over the last few years, were really, really stunningly bad," Hassett said.

"When you're thinking about what this does to markets and to inflation and so on, be mindful of the fact that we just had the biggest downward revision for the American jobs record that we've had since 2009," he said. ...



#12 | Posted by LampLighter at 2025-08-05 06:47 PM

But didn't Pres Trump also say that the BLS released good job numbers before the 2024 election to make VP Harris look good?

There's this ...

Fact check: Trump's claims jobless numbers were 'rigged'
abcnews.go.com

... Since Friday, when the Bureau of Labor Statistics released its monthly jobs report, President Donald Trump has made repeated claims that the August report was "rigged" in order to "make a great Republican Success" on the economy look weaker.

In an initial social media post from Aug. 1, Trump decried the bureau's findings that only 73,000 jobs were created in July -- a lower number than economists expected. He also condemned the sharply downward revision of jobs numbers from May and June, which totaled 258,000 fewer jobs than previously reported. Afterward, Trump fired Dr. Erika McEntarfer, the BLS commissioner nominated by former President Joe Biden and who presided over the most recent jobs report. Trump baselessly accused her of fabricating poor numbers for political reasons.

(McEntarfer was confirmed by the Senate in 2024 by a bipartisan vote of 86-8.)

Trump has since alleged -- repeatedly and without evidence -- that McEntarfer also "faked" employment numbers in the run-up to the 2024 election in order to improve Democratic candidate Kamala Harris' chances of winning. ...

"In my opinion, today's Jobs Numbers were RIGGED in order to make the Republicans, and ME, look bad " Just like when they had three great days around the 2024 Presidential Election, and then, those numbers were "taken away" on November 15, 2024, right after the Election, when the Jobs Numbers were massively revised DOWNWARD, making a correction of over 818,000 Jobs " A TOTAL SCAM. Jerome "Too Late" Powell is no better! But, the good news is, our Country is doing GREAT!" Trump wrote in a social media post on Aug. 1.

Trump's claim about the timing of the 2024 jobs report revision is incorrect.

In reality, the BLS released a report on Aug. 21, 2024 showing the economy had added 818,000 fewer jobs over the previous year than what had been reported beforehand.

This was a decidedly negative reflection of the state of the economy under Biden-Harris and occurred before the election, not after as Trump claimed. ...

[emphasis mine]


#13 | Posted by LampLighter at 2025-08-05 06:52 PM

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