In A Frozen Job Market, More People Are Locked In (Or Locked Out) (June 2025)
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Key Takeaways

- - - More workers are getting stuck in place in the job market, as hiring slows, quitting diminishes, and layoff rates stay low.

- - - Businesses are uncertain about the future of tariff policy, and many have put expansion plans on ice while they await clarity.

- - - Forecasters expect the job market to get tougher as the year goes on, with tariffs causing a rise in the unemployment rate.

Call it the "locked-in" job market: more people than usual are stuck in a job search or a job they don't want, and employers are similarly holding on to workers they may or may not need.

That's the picture painted by recent data on the labor market, which shows that employers and employees alike have responded to uncertainty about tariffs by staying in place. The hiring rate has slacked off in recent months, far below post-pandemic levels. Fewer workers are quitting their jobs too, a sign that they're not confident in finding a better one. And layoffs remain near historic lows, showing employers are reluctant to let go of the workers they have. ...