People have been saying that word since 2006. It loses it's meaning after 18 years.
#11 | POSTED BY NIXON AT 2024-03-29 10:04 AM | REPLY
Yes, and some of it - real estate and a bit of tech - popped once in that time. If you remember, 2008 wasn't the greatest of times financially.
The problem is it has NOT lost its meaning - it's been kicked down the road, snowballing the whole way.
Trump's economy was artificially propped up the entire time by artificially low interest rates, as he pushed on the fed not to raise them. We should have, needed to have, been in a recession then, not falsely driving growth through what were essentially negative interest rates that were among the many factors that later contributed to 2020 on inflation. Then his covid spending blew up the national debt, every bit of which goes toward further devalueing the dollar. Biden has since driven even greater inflation with even more massive government spending, beginning at a time when supply chains were still endemically disrupted.
So what are we looking at now?
Wall Street is doing amazing. Like 1928 amazing. A quick check of latest S&P 500 figures shows 89-149% overvalued. Fitch Ratings has housing overvalued at 11%, but tack that on to a stagnant housing market as that bubble merges with current interest rates.
Wages began to outpace inflation, but have begun dialing back, sometimes falling to pre-pandemic levels, while inflation has accumulated at close to 20% in that time. Not counting food, fuel, etc. Consumer spending is still up, but it is debt spending. Repossesions are up, credit card debt and default is up. Unemployment remains low - but this is a difficult marker to parse, as people fall off the roles. A more accurate figure - US Labor Force Participation Rate is at 62.50%. This is static over several years, and slightly lower than average, painting a rather different picture. Many of the new jobs participated in are in government and healthcare. These fudge GDP data, as they are financed through deficit spending. M2 has fallen in a way not seen since the Great Depression.
The yield curve has been inverted a shockingly long time. Media has begun considering that this is no longer an effective predictor. I'd argue rather, the longer this holds, the worse the "correction" is likely to be.
Last of all - and my worst predictor of doom and gloom - Cramer predicted a soft landing.
