Sunday, September 29, 2024

As Election Nears, Economic Growth Exceeds Expectations

Steve Benen - If all you know about the U.S. economy were based on Donald Trump's campaign ads, you'd make some rather ugly assumptions about the status quo. "We learned this morning that the economy has grown by 3.2% per year during Biden-Harris Administration - even stronger than previously estimated - and better than the first three years of the previous administration," wrote White House National Economic Advisor Lael Brainard.

Posted by tonyroma at 07:32 AM | 13 COMMENTS | permalink

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U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) grew at an annualized rate of 3 percent in the second quarter, showing an impressive performance for the economy through an elevated interest rate environment set by the Federal Reserve. Three percent growth in the Commerce Department's third estimate of GDP performance confirmed the second estimate, which also came in at 3 percent. Both were up from 1.6-percent growth in the first quarter.

The standard Republican line about Trump's economic performance is that 2020, when there was a recession as a direct result of a pandemic, shouldn't count. But even if we exclude 2020, economic growth in the United States has been stronger under Biden/Harris than under Trump/Pence.

With fewer than 40 days remaining before Election Day, this probably isn't the news Republicans wanted to see.

In the Republicans' version of reality, the brief August Wall Street slide was obviously Vice President Kamala Harris' fault. The Republican National Committee hyped the "Great Kamala Crash of 2024," and the Trump campaign had produced and circulated on social media a video tying the vice president to Monday's dip in the markets. By the afternoon, the Trump forces had turned "KamalaCrash" into a "trending" subject on X.

As September comes to end, Americans are no longer hearing much about the "Kamala Crash," in large part because there's been no crash. All of the Wall Street losses from earlier in the month have been regained, and economic growth in the United States continues to quite good.

If voters are supposed to believe that Harris is directly responsible for the world's largest economy, how much credit are Trump and the GOP prepared to give the incumbent vice president for 3% GDP growth?

As for the Republicans' crystal ball, four years ago, Trump told supporters that Democratic policies would "unleash an economic disaster of epic proportions" and force the country "into depression." He's begun making nearly identical predictions ahead of Election Day 2024.

Everything Trump said was wrong - and he hasn't even tried to explain why his predictions were so hilariously misplaced, or why anyone should believe his new predictions in light of his awful track record.

As with most things, economic trends are not controllable in the way one talks about them is. I can only imagine how it would look if Trump were running on the economy over the last 4 years after Covid instead of against it. Who am I kidding? We all know what Trump would be saying - and this time rightly so. He'd say today is the best economy ever as the Dow Jones continues to reach record highs, GDP growth exceeds Trump's best years and inflation finally appears to be tamed for the moment. The US leads the world in oil production and exports while wage growth is outpacing inflation.

Reality has a very strong Biden/Harris bias these days regardless of what Trump's gaslighting tv commercials are telling Americans about our current economic state.

#1 | Posted by tonyroma at 2024-09-27 05:23 PM

#1

"Now I will tell you the answer to my question. It is this.

The Party seeks power entirely for its own sake. We are not interested in the good of others; we are interested solely in power, pure power. What pure power means you will understand presently.

We are different from the oligarchies of the past in that we know what we are doing. All the others, even those who resembled ourselves, were cowards and hypocrites.

The German Nazis and the Russian Communists came very close to us in their methods, but they never had the courage to recognize their own motives.

They pretended, perhaps they even believed, that they had seized power unwillingly and for a limited time, and that just around the corner there lay a paradise where human beings would be free and equal.

We are not like that. We know that no one ever seizes power with the intention of relinquishing it. Power is not a means; it is an end.

One does not establish a dictatorship in order to safeguard a revolution; one makes the revolution in order to establish the dictatorship.

The object of persecution is persecution. The object of torture is torture. The object of power is power. Now you begin to understand me."

George Orwell, 1984

"Power is in tearing human minds to pieces and putting them together again in new shapes of your own choosing."

"For, after all, how do we know that two and two make four? Or that the force of gravity works? Or that the past is unchangeable? If both the past and the external world exist only in the mind, and if the mind itself is controllable " what then?"

George Orwell, 1984

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#2 | Posted by Corky at 2024-09-27 07:12 PM

The sweetness of inflation.

Everything grows in price, except you paycheck.

#3 | Posted by oneironaut at 2024-09-27 07:20 PM

---- off, loser.

#4 | Posted by LegallyYourDead at 2024-09-28 06:04 AM

Everything grows in price, except you paycheck.

#3 | Posted by oneironaut at 2024-09-27 07:20 PM | Reply | Flag: PFFFFTTTT

Yeah... we know... Reagan saw to that.

You silly cl0wns have a penchant for senility governance... some old fart with an imaginary time machine... and off you go...

#5 | Posted by RightisTrite at 2024-09-29 09:42 AM

Everything grows in price, except you paycheck.

#3 | Posted by oneironaut

Do you have a Green Card?

#6 | Posted by Zed at 2024-09-29 09:55 AM

Everything grows in price, except you paycheck.

#3 | POSTED BY ONEIRONAUT

If your paycheck isn't growing maybe it's time to get a higher paying job. McDonald's only pays so much you know. Have you thought about increasing your skills and making yourself worth more on the job market?

Do you think you deserve a pay raise just because?

#7 | Posted by donnerboy at 2024-09-29 10:47 AM

THIS FNW "If your paycheck isn't growing maybe it's time to get a higher paying job. McDonald's only pays so much you know."

Minium wage, SNAP, section 8 etc. was never meant to be forever. I agree some people need help, but there has to be a time limit, or they will never work towards becoming self-sufficient and independent. This is why we have generations on entitlements.

THIS FNW "Do you think you deserve a pay raise just because?"

FIFY "Do you think you deserve a pay/JOB just because?" Answer NO. Do away with DEI and quotas. Hire the most qualified.

#8 | Posted by gracieamazed at 2024-09-29 10:57 AM

IT doesnt matter how much the economy grows if the people who vote are not feeling it.

#9 | Posted by boaz at 2024-09-29 08:08 PM

Growth of inflation causing government spending.

#10 | Posted by visitor_ at 2024-09-29 08:13 PM


Mark Zandi
@Markzandi
I've hesitated to say this at the risk of sounding hyperbolic, but with last week's big GDP revisions, there is no denying it: This is among the best performing economies in my 35+ years as an economist. Economic growth is rip-roaring, with real GDP up 3% over the past year. Unemployment is low at near 4%, consistent with full employment. Inflation is fast closing in on Fed's 2% target - grocery prices, rents and gas prices are flat to down over the past more than a year. Households' financial obligations are light, and set to get lighter with the Fed cutting rates. House prices have never been higher, and most homeowners have more equity in their homes than ever. Corporate profits are robust, and the stock market is hitting a record high on a seemingly daily basis. Of course there are blemishes, as lower-income households are struggling financially, there is a severe shortage of affordable homes, and the government is running large budget deficits. And things could change quickly. There are plenty of threats. But in my time as an economist, the economy has rarely looked better.

x.com

#11 | Posted by reinheitsgebot at 2024-09-29 08:14 PM

But! Fox and Trump tell us daily that America is about to collapse ANY! MINUTE! NOW!

Which oh which could possibly be true?

#12 | Posted by e1g1 at 2024-09-30 04:59 PM

Do away with DEI and quotas. Hire the most qualified.

#8 | Posted by gracieamazed at 2024-09-29 10:57 AM | Reply

Hi Gracie:
As a person involved in hiring and admin, may I comment on this?
DEI does NOT mean hire someone because they are black/woman/Latina/whatever.
DEI does NOT mean preference to ANY group based on ethnicity, class, gender, sexual preference.
What it DOES mean is making good-faith efforts to advertise to everyone, especially in smaller publications/venues and making an effort to encourage all people to apply, not just the largest demographics.
What it DOES mean is to enact policies at work that include under-represented groups or marginalized groups.

Are there examples of ridiculous extremes in DEI practice? Absolutely.
And note I recognize they are ridiculous, an outlier. Not the norm.
But DEI in and of itself is a concept of inclusion, not a mandate. My HR (company of over 500 employees) has never even hinted at mandates such as "you should consider [demograph X candidate first]" for hiring in any direction. I hope that is true for everyone, everywhere.

have a good day.

#13 | Posted by e1g1 at 2024-09-30 05:07 PM

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