Business Executives' Outlook on U.S. Economy Fades

Friday, March 07, 2025

Survey: Survey takers with a positive view of the economy fell from 67% last quarter to 47%. Eighty-five percent said uncertainty surrounding tariffs had impacted business planning to some degree. Hiring picture remains stable, despite concern about costs and availability of talent.

Posted by lamplighter at 11:32 PM | 15 COMMENTS | permalink

Being able to drop a quarterly US GDP prediction by 5.1% from +2.3% to -2.8% in a single week is one of the most impressive economic developments in the history of the world.

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-- Oliver Alexander (@oalexanderdk.bsky.social) March 4, 2025 at 4:02 AM

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More from the survey ...

... The shift reflects growing concerns about inflation and tariffs, according to the survey, which polls chief executive officers, chief financial officers, controllers, and other certified public accountants in U.S. companies who hold executive and senior management accounting roles.

The survey was conducted before the Trump Administration imposed tariffs this week on Canada, Mexico, and China, but respondents were asked their general views about unspecified tariffs if they were put in place. Fifty-nine percent indicated that tariffs would have a negative effect on their businesses, while 85% said uncertainty surrounding the subject had influenced their business planning to some degree -- nearly one in five (18%) described that impact as significant.

Inflation remained the top concern for business executives, followed by issues related to staffing -- employee and benefit costs (No. 2), availability of skilled personnel (No. 3), and staff turnover (No. 10). Domestic political leadership, which was absent from last quarter's top 10 concerns, reemerged at No. 6. ...

#1 | Posted by LampLighter at 2025-03-06 02:00 PM

... While top officials have framed any economic disruption as short term and necessary for long-term prosperity, the comments go against Trump's campaign rhetoric.

President Donald Trump and his allies have begun suggesting that some economic pain could be ahead for Americans, as the administration carries out plans to slap tariffs on billions of dollars of goods coming into the U.S. and fire thousands of federal workers across the country.

Trump warned Americans in his speech to Congress this week to expect a "little disturbance" from his plan to impose sweeping tariffs on billions of dollars in goods. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said there will be a "detox period" as the economy shifts away from government spending. And Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said that prices on some items would be going up as a result of tariffs -- though he said overall inflation would not increase.

While Trump and top administration officials have framed any economic pain from their policies as short-term hits that are necessary to improve the economy in the long run, their comments go against the optimistic, fast-fix rhetoric Trump deployed on the campaign trail. Trump said in August that on his first day in office he would "end inflation and make America affordable again," and he denied that tariffs would raise prices for consumers. ...